Risk Assessment for Invasive Species: Introduction

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Risk Assessment for Invasive Species Introduction

• Mark R. Powell
• USDA Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit
  Analysis,
• Washington, DC

Society for Risk Analysis New Orleans, LA 2002
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OVERVIEW

• Assessing the Magnitude of the Invasive Species
  Problem
• Invasive Species on the Domestic and
  International Agendas
• Risk Assessment for Biological Stressors
• State of the Practice and Raising the Bar
• Challenges Ahead

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Domestic Impacts of Invasive Species

• Major Economic Impacts
• Non-market Environmental Goods and Services
• Public Health
• Examples --

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(No Transcript)
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West Nile Virus in Wild Birds, 2002
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Foot and Mouth Disease
aphis.usda.gov
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UK FMD Outbreak
www.guardian.co.uk
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Citrus Canker Eradication
Sun-Sentinel.com
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Citrus Canker Controversy
Sun-Sentinel.com
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Salvinia molesta
nature.org
invasivespecies.gov
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Invasive Species On the Domestic Policy Agenda

• National Invasive Species Council - 1999
• NISC Management Plan - 2001
• Risk Analysis System - 2003

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Domestic Statutes Relevant to Invasive Species
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Invasive Species On the International Agenda

• WTO SPS Agreement
• International Standard Setting Bodies IPPC
  (plants), OIE (animals)

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Invasive Species On the International Agenda

• WTO SPS Agreement
• International Standard Setting Bodies IPPC
  (plants), OIE (animals)
• Convention on Biological Diversity
• Cartagena Protocol

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Risk Assessment for Biological Stressors

• Distinguishing Characteristics of Biological
  Stressors
• Grow, reproduce, and multiply
• Disperse both actively and passively, often
  exhibiting jump dispersal
• Interact with ecosystems in complex, sometimes
  unpredictable, ways
• Evolve

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Parallels with Chemical Risk Assessment

• Biological
• Population of invasive species in the env.
• Inactivation
• Dispersal
• Community dynamics

• Chemical
• Population of invasive cells in the body
• Sequestration
• Fate and Transport
• Chemical mixtures

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Current State of Risk Assessment of Invasive
Species

• There are currently no known broad scientific
  principles or reliable procedures for identifying
  the invasive potential of plants, plant pests, or
  biological control agents in new geographic
  ranges
• -National Research Council. 2002. Predicting
  Invasions of Nonindigenous Plants and Plant Pests

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Current State of Risk Assessment of Invasive
Species

• Classification Schemes to Identify Hazards,
  Susceptible Resources
• Identifying Sources, Pathways of Hazards
• Quantitative Risk Assessment
• Risk P(entry)
• Gap Between Entry and Consequences

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SPS Agreement Raises the Bar

• Article 5.3

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SPS Agreement Raises the Bar

• Article 5.3
• Australian Salmon Dispute Resolution

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Argentine Citrus Decision

• U.S. Dist. Ct. E. CA. 9/01 remand of USDA
  regulation permitting import of Argentine citrus
  due to, among other things, a failure to
  specifically define what constitutes a
  negligible risk in this context.

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1980 Supreme Court Benzene Decision

• de minimis risk presumption of no additional
  regulation below threshold
• lt 1 x 10-8 lifetime cancer risk
• significant risk presumption that regulation
  required
• gt 1 x 10-4 lifetime cancer risk
• acceptable risk bounded by de minimis and
  significant risk levels, case-specific

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ATA v EPA

• The DC District Court of Appeals 2002 decision
  upholding EPA's national ambient air quality
  standards for particulate matter and ozone.
• Hard Look with humility?

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End Result

• Scientifically ambitious risk assessment for
  invasive species is non-discretionary, at least
  for those regulatory decisions that may be
  disputed.

• Hazard Identification
• Entry
• Establishment
• Spread
• Risk Reduction
• Consequences

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Workshop Information

• Proceedings to be published in Risk Analysis.
• Papers and other materials currently available on
  the project website
• http//leopold.nmsu.edu/ESA_SRA