Pandemic Influenza: A Primer for Organizational Preparation

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Pandemic Influenza A Primer for
Organizational Preparation
Kristine Perkins, MPH Director, Office of Public
Health Emergency Preparedness
Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention

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Overview

• Public Health plays a major role in Emergency
  Preparedness
  
• Protect the health of communities from natural
• and manmade disasters
• Serves as the nations first line of defense
  against numerous threats such as
  
• Infectious disease
• Food borne and water borne illness
• Biological, chemical, radiological attack

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What is Avian Influenza ? Bird Flu

• A viral infection caused by avian (bird)
  influenza normally a subtype of a type A
  influenza virus
  
• Occurring naturally among birds (low pathogenic
  and high pathogenic)
  
• Often carried by wild birds in their intestines
• Can cause domestic birds, including chickens to
  become very ill and die
  
• Occasionally some strains can infect

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• What is Pandemic Influenza?
• Pandemic Influenza is a widespread outbreak of a
  new influenza virus that humans have no immunity
  to thus causing a global outbreak of serious
  illness that spreads easily from person to
  person.
• Currently, there is no pandemic flu.

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What if An Influenza Pandemic Struck Maine

• State population  1,274,923
• Number of ill persons  382,477 (30 attack
  rate)
  
• Number of persons seeking outpatient care
  167,405  (50 of those ill minus persons who are
  hospitalized or die)
  
• Number of persons hospitalized  38,582 (range
  14,549- 48,699)
  
• Number of deaths  9,086 (range  5,421 --
  14,837) 

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Community Impact

• Hospitals working to capacity/ turning away some
  ill
  
• Alternate care sites limitedhomecare is the
  norm
  
• Assistance from the federal government limited
• Antiviral and vaccine supplies depleted
• Mortuaries unable to manage increased mortality
• Food supplies limited/ trucks, trains not moving
• Increased security at groceries, pharmacies
• Schools, many govt offices closed
• Others dying from lack of support

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Lessons from SARSToronto--2003

• 438 probable or suspect cases
• 43 deaths
• 23 decline in tourism
• 20-30 decline in retail sales
• 30 million per day cost to Canadas economy
• Decrease in growth from 2.5 to 1
• Travel advisory
• Organizational/governmental disaster

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What About My Town? County?

• In a population of 30,000
• 9,000 will become ill
• 900 will require hospitalization
• 213 will die

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How will I be Affected?

• In a Social or Business Circle of 100
• 30 will acquire the disease
• 3 will require hospitalization
• Nearly 1 will die

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Whats my Responsibility?

• Personally
• Stay up with the worldwide epidemic
• Participate in prevention strategies
• Practice and teach personal protective
  behaviors
  
• Sneeze and cough properly
• Stay home when ill
• Monitor friends who are ill
• Learn about homecare for influenza
• Stockpile supplies, food and water
• Fill fuel tanks

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Whats My Responsibility?

• Professionally
• Participate in planning
• Develop a catalog of critical operations
• Plan to provide those services with 40 fewer
  staff
  
• Practice and support Personal Protective
  Behaviors
  
• at work
• Consider volunteer support
• Consider engineering controls
• Reduce direct close client contact
• Ask for technical assistance

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Sample COOP Outline and Process

• Define Critical Functions
• Define critical staff and backup (deep)
• Cross train non-critical staff in critical
  functions
  
• Ensure infrastructure support
• Develop/test operations management plan
• Develop operations/ public communications plan

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Are We Sure ???

• No, but
• The conditions are right
• Highly pathogenic bug--H5N1 (in birds)
• High mortality rate in humans ( 50)
• Extensive coverage worldwide (in birds)
• Limited human to human transmission
• Influenza mutates constantly
• Global shipment and migration of birds

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