Erik S. Nielsen, Instructor

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Erik S. Nielsen, Instructor
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Population increases because of births and
immigration Population decreases through deaths
and emigraton
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Law and Population

• International Law directed at population is
  soft law, taking the form of declarations,
  programs of action, and resolutions.
• Key legal question is whether a familys right to
  determine the number of children it bears is a
  basic human right protected under the UN Charter.
  

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Cairo Conference

• Cairo Conference 1994Third International
  Conference on Population and Development in Cairo
• Vatican partially supported Conference, but was
  strongly opposed to birth control and abortion
  components

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Lessons From Cairo

• most effective ways to fight population growth
  are also already important goals in their own
  right fighting poverty, improving nutrition,
  improving health care, increasing access to
  education, economic opportunities, and human
  rights.

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Limits to Growth (1972)
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Thomas Robert Malthus 1766-1834

• Professor of History and Political Economy at
  the East India Company College (now known as
  Haileybury)
• First economist to look at population
• Politically and socially conservative, but not
  really liked by most liberals or conservatives

nature has a natural way to cut population
levels "crime, disease, war, and vice," being,
the necessary checks on population."
"population increases in a geometric ratio, while
the means of subsistence increases in an
arithmetic ratio."
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Garrett Hardin (1915-2003)

• Former UCSB Biologist
• 1968 Tragedy of the Commons?
• Most read article in history
• Controversial favored expansion of abortion,
• favored immigration restrictions, believed in
• selfish gene theory, believed coercive measures
• to control over-population may be necessary
• Committed suicide w/ wife Janet in Santa Barbara
• on 62nd wedding anniversary

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Tragedy of the Commons--Metaphor

• Pasture that is held in common for herders
  understood that each is allowed a certain of
  cattle
• One realizes that more profit can be made if
  more cattle are added
• Other herders see this, and do the same, adding
  more and more cattle
• Soon the land is over-grazed and degraded

http//www.youtube.com/watch?vL8gAMFTAt2M
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Tragedy of the Commons
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The Tragedy of the Unregulated Commons

• Hardin's use of "commons" has frequently been
  misunderstood, leading Hardin to later remark
  that he should have titled his work "The Tragedy
  of the Unregulated Commons"

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Impact Population Affluence
(Consumption) Technology

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Criticisms of IPAT

• Based on averages
• Population effect calculated as if proportionate
  (i.e. big and small consumers treated
  statistically the same)
• Difficult to measure technology and effects

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Globalization
trans / national Globalization
Interdependence The processes by which the lives
of all people around the planet become
increasingly intertwined, along with our
awareness of such interconnections Roland
Robertson
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Changes in Transportation Technology and Low Oil
Prices
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Neo-Malthusians blame the poor for environmental
degradation
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If we save all those children wont they simply
starve as adults? Or use too many resources?
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• 1. fertility rates can be brought down
• 2. saving children through increased access to
  public health services and nutrition is actually
  a major stimulus to reduced fertility adults
  have fewer children if they are assured more will
  survive
• 3. fertility and economic development as combined

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Population Growth

• Measurable growth takes two forms arithmetic and
  geometric (exponential)
• Arithmetic operates by the principle of simple
  addition 2 2 2 2
• 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
• Geometric (Exponential) doubles over time
• 2 2 2 2
• 1,2,4,8,16,32,64

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Legend  King offered reward to chess
inventor     he said, no money, no
gold.  Just     1 grain
of wheat on 1st square       2 on
second         4 on third
(etc.)            for the
64 squares on the board.
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18.5 QUINTILLION grains!!
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Demographic Transition Theory

• 1. rural societies start with high fertility
  offset by high mortality little food, poor
  health, keeps population growth in check
• 2. drop in mortality rates better sanitation,
  health care, food availability
• 3. fertility rates decrease to a level
  commensurate with the mortality rates and the
  population stabilizes

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Green Revolution
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Growth Rates

• population growing at 1.2 annually 77 million
  people/year
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• Developed world 1.57 children/women
• Developing world 3.1 children/women exceeds 7
  in many African countries

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• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the average
  number of children per woman during her
  reproductive years.

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Infant Mortality Rate

• The number of babies out
• of every 1,000 born who
• die before their first
• Birthday

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• Human societies and cultures are still adjusting
  to the happy surprise of falling child mortality
  and rising life expectancy.
• Most important reason for the fall in TFR has
  been the decline in childrens mortality.

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Factors affect birth rates and fertility rates
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1. children as part of the labor force
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• 2. costs of raising and educating children
• raising children is much more costly because
  children do not enter the labor force until their
  late teens or early 20s

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3. Urbanization - employment reduces need for
many children especially if there is a social
safety net, i.e. health care, pensions, social
welfare, worker rights, subsidized education,
etc.
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Megacities cities with populations more than 10
million In 1950, only two cities in the world
were megacities New York and Tokyo In 2003, 20
megacities, with 15 in poor countries growing
fast Lagos (10 million) to double in 15
yrs Mexico City (20 million) Sao Paulo (18
million) Delhi (14 million) Shanghai (13
million) Dhaka (12 million) Karachi (11
million) NYC metro area (18 million) Tokyo-Yokoha
ma (35 million)
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4. Womens rights
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What womens education means for population
Percent of Married Women Using Contraception,
Selected Countries
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Other factors affecting birth rates and fertility
rates

• 5. infant mortality rate how many children die
• 6. average age at marriage
• 7. private and public pensions dont need
  children to take care of them later
• 8. availability of legal abortions
• 9. Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural
  norms

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Analysts tend to be divided into 3 camps

• 1. Population Optimists More people more brains
  to solve problems
• 2. Population Pessimists Doom and Gloom
• 3. Population Agnostics (like me!) who believe
  that a demographic transition in poor countries,
  and rich, is needed and that resource allocation
  is the big problem!

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Optimists
INGENUITY ULTIMATE RESOURCE

• Julian Simon argued that a larger global
  population will tend to bring about the very
  technological change needed to sustain the
  population and improve human welfare

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Pessimists

• Believe that population growth could lead to
  scarcity
• Inability to allocate resources fairly
• Unchecked population growth could lead to
  extinction of human species

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Famous Bet on Resource Scarcity

• Simon

• Ehrlich

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Demographic Transition Theory

• 1. rural societies start with high fertility
  offset by high mortality little food, poor
  health, keeps population growth in check
• 2. drop in mortality rates better sanitation,
  health care, food availability
• 3. fertility rates decrease to a level
  commensurate with the mortality rates and the
  population stabilizes

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More developed countries
Population by Age and Sex, More Developed
Countries 2008
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Percent Change in Population, Selected Countries
2008-2050
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Peripheral Countries
Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed
Countries 2008
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Rich world 400 million people between
1950-2000, gain of 50 Developing world 3.5
billion people, a gain of 200
World Population (in Billions) 1950-2050
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• What does it mean to have half of the population
  under 15, and half of them male, with no
  prospects of employment or advancement?

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US population growth
Between 2000-2100 US population expected to
double to 571 million people, by high estimate
estimate
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Percent of U.S. Population in Selected Age
Groups 1970-2050
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Ready for Retirement?
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Migration and Population
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Baby Boomers!!

• The period of high birth rates between 1946 and
  1964 is known as the baby-boom period, when 79
  million people were added
• to the US population.
•  
•  

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• The age of full retirement for Social Security is
  gradually rising from 65 for those born before
  1938 to 67 for people born after 1959
• Make up nearly 50 of all adults powerful
  political block really started what we know as
  consumer culture
• Coming labor shortages in US? Or more
  opportunities for younger workers?
• (depends on state of economy)

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The Sandwich Generation

• According to the Pew Research Center just over 1
  of every 8 Americans aged 40 to 60 is both
  raising a child and caring for a parent
• 7 to 10 million other adults caring for their
  aging parents from a long distance.
• In 25 years there will be 60 million Americans
  between the ages of 66 and 84, all of them
  needing some kind of care
• the number of Americans aged 65 or older will
  double by the year 2030, to over 70 million.

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AH, the GOOD OL 20th and early 21st Centuries!!
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