Future Studies

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FUTURE STUDIES TODAY?

• Marc LUYCKX GHISI
• Member of the Auroville International Advisory
  Council,
• Former member of the Forward Studies Unit, EU
• Vice President of COTRUGLI Business School,
  Zagreb Belgrade

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FUTURE STUDIES TODAY

• We are in a crucial moment.
• The change announced by Tofler (Future Shock,
  1987) and other futurists is happening today.
• Futurists have an important NEW mission explain
  the actual world transformation to the public.

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FUTURE STUDIES TODAY

• This means that futurology and philosophy are in
  the best position for explaining in a
  transdisciplinary way the multiple dimensions of
  the actual transition to
• Transmodernity
• Post industrial society
• Post capitalist society
• Post patriarchal society

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CHAPTER 1SHORT DESCRIPTION OF THE TRANSITION
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P. Drucker Transformation

• Every few hundred years in Western History there
  occurs a sharp transformation.
• Within a few short decades, society rearranges
  itself its worldview (paradigm), its basic
  values, its social and political structures, its
  arts, its key institutions.
• Fifty years later there is a new world.
• Peter DRUCKER Post Capitalist Society.
  Butterworth Heinemann, 1993, 2001, p.1.

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WILLIS HARMAN

• We are living through one of the most
  fundamental shifts in History a change in the
  actual belief structure of Western Society. No
  economics, political or military power can
  compare with the power of a change of mind. By
  deliberately changing their images of reality,
  people are changing the world.
• Willis HARMAN Stanford Research Institute
  (1997), Founder of the World Business Academy

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Transition to Transmodern
Death ?
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KNOWLEDGE SOCIETYFIVE LEVELS OF CHANGE
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Transformations five levels

• Humanity is in danger of collective death
• Knowledge society is the End of the Patriarchal
  values (CCC)
• Knowledge Society is the end of modernity. It is
  tansmodern. (post secular, flat, tolerant, new
  level of responsibility and consciousness).
• Knowledge society is also a new economic logic.
• Knowledge society is potentially a new political
  concept of non violence between States. (like EU)

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The Iceberg of TRANSMODERNITY
Level 5 Credibility gap of all Institutions is
increasing
dramatically
Level 4 The knowledge society post-capitalist
society (Drucker)
Level 3 End of Modernity REASON Only Truth,
Science, Violence, Pyramids, Control
Level 2 End of Patriarchal myths, sacred and
values
Level 1 Danger of Collective Death
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LEVEL 1 HUMANITY IS IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE
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WorldWatch Institute Washington

• Our global economy is outgrowing the capacity of
  the earth to support it, moving us ever closer to
  decline and possible collapse.
• We have the technologies needed to build the new
  economy
• Lester BROWN Plan B 2.0 Norton NY, London
• 2006. Presentation text on the cover.

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UNESCO War against nature

• Koichiro MATSUURA, Director of UNESCO in Paris
  has declared that we must end this war against
  nature, which is in fact a war against ourselves,
  and against the future generations.
• We must conclude an armistice, a new natural
  pact of co-development with nature. (Le
  Figaro Jan 11, 2007.)

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WHY?

• It is a question of Survival for HUMANIY.

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Level 2 KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY END OF PATRIARCHAL
VALUES
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From Matrilinear to Patriarchal

• MATRILINEAR(-3500)
• Woman Goddess,
• snake her power
• SACRED LIFE tree, blood, birth
• Sexuality Pleasure
• Power life giving
• Beauty art Creativity

• PATRIARCHAL
• God the Father
• women infer sin.
• SACRED Violent DEATH, blood, cross
• Sex pleasure impure
• Power to kill
• Ascetism is better

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KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY END OF COMMAND AND CONTROL

• Every LEADER will have to shift his approach, and
  the political structures towards post patriarchal
  values
• respect for the environment,
• Importance of human relations
• Fostering the joy of creation,
• contact with nature, link with the cosmos,
• Interiority, spiritual dimension

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A NEW WOMAN-MAN RELATION

• In every couple around the world, we see a hidden
  transformation of the relation. Hence... some new
  conflicts!
• This means that women and men are obliged to
  redefine their roles and behaviours.
• Few structures are able to help couples in this
  unexplained transition. SILENCE.

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LEVEL 3 KNWOLEDGE SOCIETY END OF MODERNITY
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Multi level changes...

• Structures From pyramids to void circle
• Status of rational thinking
• Status of Spiritual aspiration (religion) in
  public.
• Status of truth real tolerance.
• Status of Science and tech.
• Status of political violence beyond war
• Status of body, intuition, ethics, esthetics...

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0. Pre-Modern to Modern Pyramid to Pyramid

• PRE-MODERN

• MODERN

GOD
REASON
Economist
Clergy
Government
Government
Men
Men
Women
Women
COSMOS object
COSMOS sacred
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1. From Modern to Transmodern From Pyramid to
void cercle

• MODERN

• TRANSMODERN

Men part of COSMOS
Cultures
Centre is empty
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2. STATUS OF RATIONAL THINKING

• Modern rational thinking has been a liberation
  struggle against medieval obscurantism.
• It has become now, like a mental prison.
• Rationality is loosing its divine status given by
  modernity. And it is only one way to think.
• Other ways of thinking like intuition, connection
  to the cosmos, gain credibility, because we need
  them, to create knowledge !!

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3. STATUS OF SPIRITUAL ASPIRATION IN PUBLIC

• For evident reasons modernity has taken distance
  from religions.
• But in doing this, it has progressively
  marginalized religions and spiritual aspiration
  as outdated.
• This negation of such an important human
  dimension is in crisis.
• We go probably towards distinction but not
  anymore separation.

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4. STATUS OF TRUTH

• MODERN
• Pyramidal
• Intolerant
• Rational truth
• Secular (France)
• Disenchanted
• NOT Responsible
• No conscious of whole

• TRANSMODERN
• Round table Hole
• Radical tolerance
• Truth existvoid
• Post secular
• Re-enchanted
• Collective responsibility
• New level of consciousness

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5. NEW ROLE OF SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY

• Science Technology had received in modern
  times a divine status, because they were
  rational thus true. Now they have to be at the
  service of our survival in a sustainable future.
• Science was above ethics, value free ! Now ethics
  is back and citizens ask questions to science.
• Science was functioning in a offer economy
  (please consume what we invent !).
• Now science HAS to function in a demand economy
  (please be part of the solution !).

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5. SCIENCE

• And science is reinventing itself at full speed.
• And this happens through hard paradigm conflicts
  (Thomas Kuhn, Harvard)
• Back to a poetic approach to nature... (Ilya
  Prigogine, Nobel prize 1977).

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6. STATUS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE

• Modernity has created the State as zone of
  internal NON-violence inside. But outside the
  borders, citizens are obliged to kill.
• Transmodernity has invented structures of
  non-violence between States The EU is the first
  success.
• But European Governments sell the EU as a
  market... They should sell EU as the first
  political avantgarde of the Knowledge society !

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7. STATUS OF INTUITION, ETHICS, BODY, SACRED,
DEATH...

• Many things are changing
• We see that intuition, ethics, esthetics, are
  really becoming important again in the knowledge
  society.
• The very concept of sacred has transformed more
  in 40 years than in 2000 years!
• The way we see death and life after death is also
  changing completely...
• We see a reconnexion of body, mind, soul,
  intelligence...Towards Reenchantment ?

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CONSEQUENCE POLITICAL CHOICES (I)

• EU should be presented as the 1 Transmodern
  political project of the XXI century.
• Politicians should dear to say that we are like
  at the beginning of Renaissance...
• They should call people to reflect worldwide on
  the new sustainable structures of the future.

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CONSEQUENCEPOLITICAL CHOICES (II)

• The main world problems are political
• World hunger
• Education
• Water
• inequalitiy
• The money is there. It would cost 10 to 20 of
  what is spent for arms...

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CONSEQUENCE ECONOMIC CHOICES (I)

• Politicians and economist should have the courage
  to say that we are not anymore in the industrial
  capitalist period.
• We are already in the knowledge economy which is
  post capitalist (Drucker).
• But nobody dears to say the truth to the
  citizens. And they know it .... subconsciously.

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CONSEQUENCE ECONOMIC CHOICES (II)

• And this knowldege conomy (Lisbon Strategy of
  the EU 2000-2010), could be oriented towards
  sutainability and social inclusion.
• We can decide this. A debate is urgent and
  needed.
• But this presupposes that the economists and
  politicians wake up from the free trade
  industrial nightmare which is unable to lead to a
  sustainable world.

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THE DINOSAUR SYNDROM !

• We are in a time of rapid change.
• It is time to speak out and reflect together like
  in this Congress...
• Many structures will become dinosaurs, if they
  are unable to transform...
• Better create new structures without fighting the
  old ones.

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Policy and anguish

• Example war on terrorism. Seems to foster more
  anger and terrorism, and clash of
  civilizations. Exactly the opposite result.
• Like persecution of Christians
• Are politicians able to confront the changes?
• What is their mission today?

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Conclusion

• Where are you personally? Are you feeling this
  transition?
• Where are Croatian young business leaders? Which
  paradigm are they in ?
• Where does Croatia fit in the European
  discussion? Which paradigm?
• What is the future of Croatia? Transmodern?

 
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WHAT IS LISBON STRATEGY ?

• In March 2000, the Head of the 15 States, which
  are Members of the European Union, met in Lisbon
  for one of their official meetings called
   European Council .
• They decided that  the EU should become the most
  competitive world actor in the Knowledge society
  before 2010, and this in full respect of
  sustainability and social inclusion. 

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CHAPTER 2WHAT IS KNOWLEDGE ECONOMICS?(Level
4! )
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DEFINITIONS

• Data what is on the web, unorganised
• Information is already sorted by  Google .
  Overabundance.
• Knowledge is digested by human brain. Less
• Wisdom, Knowledge are rare. Not enough.

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A NEW WORLD...

1. New tool of production human brain
2. New CEO Enabling creativity and sharing, Caring
   for humans new human-centered management
3. New value creation process adding Knowledge to
   Knowledge.
4. BEYOND Trade from Free Trade to Free Sharing
5. New measurements qualitative intangibles

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A NEW WORLD...

• New strategy beyond war win-win not win-loose
• New definition of Progress qualitative
• Beyond patenting towards Open Source
• Beyond pyramids towards networks
• Capitalizing on cultural capital gender capital

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1. NEW TOOL OF PRODUCTION

• The tool of production is not anymore machine
  technol. capital ().
• New tool of production is human brain sharing
  knowledge in Networks in order to create new K.
• This new tool of production is more important
  than capital and technol. Humans are ABOVE
  machines and Capital.
• Hence Post capitalist society!

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2. NEW CEO FUNCTION

• Old CEO command, control, conquer
• New CEO
• Enables the creativity of his human capital
  tool of Production
• Enables and creates networks around his team.
  Because (S)He cannot control networks!
• Cares for the intangible assets brand

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2. HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT

• Human capital and HR become central because they
  are caring for the tool of production Please
  come back tomorrow!
• Thus Management shifts 180 towards human
  centeredness more creativity-centred, gender
  culture centred.
• HR Becomes absolutely central.

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HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT

• The EU economy is at least 50 in this new
  knowledge economy. Thus HR is really becoming
  more important everyday.
• But many enterprises are not understanding the
  change. And keep HR devalued !
• Most CEOs do not understand... It is too quick!

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HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT

• And so the HR managers have a difficult task to
  convince their top managers.
• Meanwhile people under them push for change,
  because they feel the need.
• It is important for HR managers to understand
  that their problems are worldwide the same. The
  transformation is too quick!

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3. NEW VALUE CREATION PROCES

• INDUSTRIAL SOC.
• Add value to object
• From steel to car !
• Tool is Machine
• Humans are cost
• Management is machine-centered
• Machine is central

• KNOWLEDGE SOC.
• Create new K
• From data, info to K
• Tool is Human brain in Networks
• Humans are capital
• Management is Human-centered
• Machine is at service

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4. BEYOND TRADE win-win(I)

• If I exchange an object against money, I loose
  the object. This is trade I win and I loose.
  Win-Loose logic
• If I exchange knowledge, I do not loose my
  knowledge. I win and you win. I am not trading
  anymore. I share. This is a win-win logic of
  sharing.

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4. BEYOND TRADE (II)

• INDUSTRIAL SOC.
• Free trade of objects
• Industrial structure
• Pyramids
• Unemployment
• Pollution
• Quantitative growth

• KNOWLEDGE SOC.
• Free sharing of knowl.
• Post-industrial-capitalist.
• Network value creation
• Self-creation of my job
• Immaterialization of prod.
• Qualitative growth

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A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASUREMENTS

• Intangible assets is a new concept invented
  by Karl Erik SVEIBY (Sweden)
• They are becoming more and more important in the
  knowledge society
• Because the knowledge society is about knowledge
  which is immaterial, intangible and qualitative.

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5. A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASUREMENT INTANGIBLE
ASSETS (I)

• Intangibles assets
• Know how,
• Reputation, Trust in the company,
• Structure of the company, and Strategy (balanced
  scorecards)
• Relations with personnel,
• Relations with clients,

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5. A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASURE. INTANGIBLE ASSETS
(II)

• Relation with civil society
• Relation to environment
• Relation to our collective Future and
  sustainability
• But also quality of the Networks

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5. INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN STOCK MARKETS

• Stock exchange measurements are still looking at
  financial tangible assets (quantitative) but
  they increasingly look at intangible assets
  (qualitative).
• Today a company is measured more and more by its
  intangible assets Minimum 50 .
• Example Mens Wear USA. World Business
  Academy, Spirit in Business.
• See also Neskey www.neskey.com

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5. Intangible indicators grow
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5. GROWING IMPORTANCE OF INTANGIBLE ASSETS (II)
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6. NEW BUSINESS STRATEGY WIN-WIN

• Old business strategy is warlike. Battlefield
  images are frequent. Patriarchal values dominate
  win-loose strategies.
• New business strategy much less violent,
  competition through collaboration is the new
  motto (post patriarchal).
• Knowledge behaves like love! Shocking idea for
  the industrial capitalist economy.

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TWO SCENARIOS of Knowledge economy for 2020

• Scenario 1Humanism
• Human centered
• Honest with humans
• Really Transparent
• Really ethical
• Really concerned about the future
• REALLY SUSTAINABLE

• Scenario 2 Manipulat.
• Pseudo humanist
• Invisibly false
• False transparency
• False ethics
• False concern with Humanitys future
• NON SUSTAINABLE

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Good Books

• Paul H. RAY The cultural creatives How 50
  million people are changing the world. Harmony,
  New York, 2002. www.culturalcreatives.org
• Peter DRUCKER Post capitalist society, Harper
  Business, New York, 1993.
• Verna ALLEE The future of knowledge Elsevier
  Science, 2003, USA. www.vernaallee.com
• David ROONEY (Australia) Handbook on the
  Knowledge economy 2005.

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Good Books

• Jeremy RIFKIN The European Dream when Europes
  vision of the future is silently eclipsing the
  American dream Penguin 2004.
• Ray ANDERSON Mid Course correction 1998.
  www.chelseagreen.com (Interface)
• World Business Academy www.worldbusiness.org
• Neskey on intangible measurements
  www.neskey.com
• PERLAS Nicanor  Shaping Globalization  civil
  Society, Cultural Power, and Threefolding
  nperlas_at_info.com.ph

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Good Books

• Marc Luyckx GHISI The Knowledge society a
  breakthrough to genuine sustainability. Editions
  India, Cochin, March 08.