Project Management and Control

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Project Management and Control

• Projects Risk Management

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Project PlanningRisk Management

• Nature of RISK
• Uncertainty
• Loss ???? Gain

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Project PlanningRisk Management

• ??????????????????????????????????????????
• Reactive
• ????????????????????? ???????????????
  ?????????????
• ??????????????
• Proactive
• ???????????????? ???????????????????????????????
  ?
• ????? ???????????????????? ????? ???????
  ??????????
• ?????????????????????

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Project PlanningRisk Management

• ?????????????????????????? ?????????? 1
• Known Risk
• ???????????????????????????????? ?????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????
• Predictable Risk
• ????????????? ????????????????? ???????????????
• ???????????????????????
• Unpredictable Risk
• ????????????? ???????????????????????
  ???????????
• ?????????????? ????????????????????????????

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Project PlanningRisk Management

• ?????????????????????????? ?????????? 2
• Project Risk
• ????????????????????????? ?????????????????????
  
• ???? ???????????? ??????????????? ???????
• Technical Risk
• ??????? S/W ???? H/W ????????????????????????
  ????
• ??????? ??????????????????????????????? ???????
• Business Risk
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????
• ???????????????????????????? ????

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Project PlanningRisk Management

• Business Risk
• Building an excellent product that none really
  want.
• Building a product that no longer fit into the
  overall business strategies.
• Building a product that the sales force does not
  understand how to sell.
• Losing the support of Senior Manager due to
  change in focus.
• Losing budgetary or personal Commitment.

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Project PlanningRisk Management Process
S.A. Scenarios Simulation PERT D.A.
Risk premium Negotia- tion
WBS
Cost/Time estimates
Acceptance
Probability
Avoidance
Risk Identification
Risk Assessment
Risk Analysis
Risk Response
Mitigation
Correlation
Strategy Capacity Attitude
Risk checklist
Re- allocation
Past data, Environment analysis
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Project PlanningRisk Management

• Risk Breakdown Structure
• A risk breakdown structure is a hierarchy of
  potential risk categories for a project.
• Similar to a work breakdown structure but used to
  identify and categorize risks.

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Project PlanningSample of Risk Breakdown
Structure
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Project PlanningRisk Management
If you dont actively attack the risks The risks
will actively attack you. Tom Gilb.
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Project PlanningRisk Management
??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????
??????? ??????? (?????????? Barry Boehm, Risk
Management, 2001)

• Personnel Shortfalls
• Schedules, Budgets, Process
• COTS, External components
• Requirement mismatch
• User Interface mismatch
• Architecture, Performance, Quality
• Requirement Changes
• Legacy Software
• Externally-performed tasks
• Straining computer science

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Project PlanningRisk Management
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Project PlanningRisk Management
Risk Assessment ??????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????? ????????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????
Find and Fix First!
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Project PlanningRisk Assessment
Risk Identification, You will

• select the best methods to identify potential
  risks
• examine all sources of possible risks
• identify all potential risks whether they are
  random, internal or external to the organization
• examine each risk from the perspective of both
  internal and external stakeholders.

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Project PlanningRisk Assessment - Risk
identification
Selecting methods to identify risks When you
undertake this step to identify risks, it is
essential that those you consult are
knowledgeable about the activity you are
reviewing. Where the activity is complex, it may
be best to work with a group.
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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk
identification
Internal methods of identifying risks

• Look at the records of previous activities.
• Examine the results of personal, local or
  overseas experience.
• Arrange interviews and discussions with
  stakeholders.
• Distribute surveys and questionnaires to
  stakeholders.
• Conduct audits and physical inspections.
• Directly observe the activity.
• Analyst specific scenarios.

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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk
identification
External methods of identifying risks

• Employ professional consultants, e.g. lawyers,
  accountants, and workplace health and safety
  officers.
• Employ industry specialists, e.g. marketers,
  business consultants and risk consultants.
• Consult associated professional organisations,
  e.g. Hoteliers' Association.
• Conduct your own research using industry
  publications, newspapers and insurance tables.

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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk
identification
??????????????????????????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk
identification
?????????????????????????????????????? (???)
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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk Analysis
Analyse the Risk ???????????????????????????????
????????????? 2 ??????????? ??????

• Possibility - ????????????????????????
• Loss - ??????????????????????????????????? ????

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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk Analysis
???????????????????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk Analysis
??????????????????????????????????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk Analysis
??????????????????? Risk Exposure (RE)
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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk
Prioritization
Risk Prioritization ????????????????????????????
????? ?????????????????? ????? ???????????????????
?????????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????????????????
???????? Risk Exposure ??????????????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Assessment Risk
Prioritization
?????????????????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Management

• Risk Control
• ?????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????
• Risk Management Planning ????????????????????????
  ?
• Risk Resolution ?????????????????????
• Risk Monitoring ???????????????????????????????

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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Management
Planning
?????????????????????????????????????

• Buying Information
• ??????????????????? ?????????????????????????????
  ?????? ???????????????????????????????????????????
  
• 2. Risk Avoidance
• ????????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ?????????
• Risk Transfer
• ???????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ????????????? ????????????? ??????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????

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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Management
Planning
?????????????????????????????????????

• Risk Reduction
• ?????????????????????????? ??????????????
• Quality Assurance
• Training
• Supervising
• Testing
• Inspection and Process control
• Preventive maintenance

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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Management
Planning
???????????????????????????????????

• 1. Why?
• ????????????????????????????????
• 2. What?
• ???????????????????? ????????????????????
• 3. How?
• ?????????????????????????
• When?, Who?, Where?
• ????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????? ?????? ???????????????????
• 5. How much?
• ?????????? ??????????????????????????????????

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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Management
Planning
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
Personal Shortfalls
1. Why? ?????????????????? ?????????????????????
????????????????????????????????????????? 2.
What? ???????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????? 3. How? ?????????????????
??????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Management
Planning
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
Personal Shortfalls
4. When?, Who?, Where? ????????????????????
????? 2 ??. ?????????????????????? ???????? 3
????? 5. How much? ??????? 5 Man-Days
???????? 150,000 ??? ???????????????????????
??????? 5 ???
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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Resolution
???????????????????????? (Risk resolution) ??????
?????????????????????????????????
????????????????????? ????????????????????????????
????????? Risk Mitigation ?????????????????? Risk
Mitigation ?????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Resolution
Risk Mitigation Technique
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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Resolution
Risk Mitigation Technique
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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Resolution
Risk Mitigation Technique
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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Monitoring
??????????????????? (Risk Monitoring) ???????????
???????????????????????? ?????????????????????????
?????????? ??????????????? ??????????????????????
????????????????????????????

• Weekly Meeting
• Monthly Meeting
• Risk Manager Employment
• New risks registration

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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Monitoring
?????????????????????????????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Management MMMMM

• Measure
• realize what risks you face, assess their
  probability
• and impact.
• Minimize
• identify what could be done to remove or
  reduce risks
• and do it
• Mention
• speak to the sponsor, don't keep risks secret

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Project PlanningRisk Management MMMMM

• Monitor
• keep risks under review, monitor and reduce
  them as
• you go along
• Modify
• share your experience, update your company's
• risk checklists

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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Management
Planning
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??????????????????????????????????????????????????
???? ?????????????????????????????
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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Management
Planning

• ?????
• Risk Identification
• ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ???????????????????????
• Risk Analysis
• ?????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????? ????????????????????????
  ???

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Project PlanningRisk Control Risk Management
Planning

• ?????
• Risk Management Planning Risk Resolution
• ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????? Pair Programming
• Risk Monitoring
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????? ??????????? ??????????????????????????????