The USDA Forest Service Global Change Research Program

1
The USDA Forest ServiceGlobal Change Research
Program

• Jim Reaves
• Sue Conard
• Richard Birdsey
• Steve McNulty
• Linda Joyce
• Presented to Climate Change Science Program
  Office
• August 2, 2002

2
The USDA Forest Service

• Largest forest land manager in the U.S.
• 147 million acres (20 of all forest land)
• Additional 41 million acres of rangeland
• Three main branches
• National Forest System
• State and Private Forestry
• Research
• Chief is serious about addressing climate change
  issues

3
The Forest Service Global Change Research Program
(FSGCRP)

• Evolved from NAPAP (air pollution research)
• Began with 22.1 million in 1991
• Current funding is 16.9 million
• 13.2 million in FS research base (base is
  241.3)
• 3.7 million competitive (internal and external)
• Program implemented by many research units and
  cooperators
• Leverage large research base (e.g. forest
  inventory)
• Capability for interdisciplinary research
• Research projects documented with proposals,
  study plans, QA/QC activities
• Periodic reviews at multiple levels

4
FSGCRP Research Unit Locations

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Summary of Interagency Activities

• Participation in USGCRP Working Groups
• National Assessments
• IPCC Projects
• Periodic Assessments
• Special Reports and Studies
• Co-sponsor Research
• VEMAP
• AmeriFlux
• FACE
• NACP Planning

6
Our Role in Key Events.

• Kyoto Protocol and Presidents Initiatives
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Special Report on Land Use Change and Forestry
• SBSTA Meetings
• Conferences of the Parties (COP meetings)
• Third Assessment Report
• U.S. Climate Change Assessments
• U.S. Interagency Climate Change Assessment
• Resources Planning Act Assessments since 1990

7
Elements of FSGCRP

• Understanding Ecosystem Changes (4.9 million)
• Sensitivity of ecosystem processes
• Species migration and ecosystem composition
• Global Carbon Cycle (10.0 million)
• Estimating carbon stocks and fluxes
• Responses of biogeochemical processes to multiple
  stress
• Global Water Cycle (2.0 million)
• Monitoring hydrology and nutrient cycling
• Linking processes and observations
• New Initiatives (2.0 million 03 Pres.)
• CCRI improve biomass inventories
• CCTI carbon accounting sequestration technology
• Assessments (not a separate element)

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Understanding Ecosystem Changes

• Effects of multiple stresses on ecosystem
  processes
• Species migration and composition changes
• Climate change and disturbances
• Implications for land management (adaptation and
  mitigation)

9
Understanding Ecosystem Changes Research
Approaches

• Long-term Monitoring
• Climate, soils, hydrology
• Vegetation
• Experimentation
• Greenhouse
• Field, open-top chambers, FACE
• Ecological Modeling
• Biogeochemical models
• Biogeographical models
• Individual species models

10
Climate Change and Forest Processes

• Productivity
• Under elevated CO2, forest productivity
  increases, subject to moisture and nutrient
  conditions
• Under warmer scenarios, increased drought, fire
• Climate only changes result in a decline in
  productivity
• Carbon Storage
• Modest warming could increase carbon storage
• Water Use
• Runoff could increase in areas of the US
• Interactions with Air Pollutants
• N deposition
• Tropospheric ozone

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Ecosystem Changes Forest Productivity

• With elevated CO2 , lab and field experiments
  indicate increases of 0 to 100.
• When implemented across diverse geographical
  landscapes and with climate changes, predicted
  responses much lower.
• Average growth response to forest management
  (25-39) is larger than predicted from elevated
  CO2 and climate change (8-29).

• Results similar at different scales differ
  across climate models

12
Ecosystem Changes Vegetation Distributions

• Results influenced by
• Treatment of CO2 effects
• Particular climate scenario
• Results indicate
• Direction of change
• Magnitude uncertain
• Sensitive to climate
• Species composition
• Vegetation boundaries

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Ecosystem Changes Tree Species Migration
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Climate Change and Disturbances

• Fire regimes
• Increased severity
• Possible changes in size, seasonality
• Drought
• Increase in frequency
• Insects and diseases
• Changes in distributions
• Hurricanes, landslides, ice storms, windstorms
• Alterations are possible

Climate Change
Disturbances
Natural
Anthropogenic
Ecosystems
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Ecosystem Changes Implications for Forest
Management

• Reduce non-climate stresses
• Intensify habitat and species management
• Reduce the risk of catastrophic disturbances
• Insects, diseases, invasives, fire
• Consider climate variability in management and
  restoration plans
• National forest plans
• Other public and private forest values
• Adjust natural resource yield and harvest models
• Landscape management
• migration corridors, edges of ranges
• Protect coastal wetlands, allow for sea-level rise

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Global Carbon Cycle
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The Forest Service Contribution to Carbon Cycle
Science

• Experimental research facilities
• Participation in interagency research studies
• Add value to forest inventory and monitoring
  contribution of forests to the global carbon
  cycle
• Integrated modeling and analysis

Inventory Plot
Flux Tower
FACE Experiment
18
Aspen FACE Experiment Rhinelander, WI

• Sponsors
• DOE USDA-FS
• MTU, grants from NSF, NRI, others
• Collaborators
• USDA-FS, DOE, MTU, U.Mich, U. Wisc., others
• Canadian FS, other intl

3 treatments CO2, O3, CO2 x O3 Control 3
replicates 12 rings total
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Participation in AmeriFlux

• FSGCRP Co-sponsors sites in
• Howland, ME
• Baltimore, MD
• Upper Peninnsula, MI
• GLEES, WY
• Wind River, WA

20
Tree carbon per hectare by U.S. county
Carbon Stocks and Stock Changes Estimated from
Forest Inventory Data
21
Carbon Sink Convergence of Estimates for
Continental U.S. from Land and Atmospheric
Measurements (From Pacala et al. 2001, Science)
Land estimates based on USDA inventories and
carbon models
PgC/yr
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Carbon Sequestration by US Forests

• U.S. forests sequester carbon at a rate of 250
  MMTC/yr -- 15 of U.S. emissions
• At 5/ton, annual value of sequestration is
  more than 1 billion
• It is technically feasible to increase the rate
  of carbon sequestration in forests by 150
  MMTC/yr
• Afforestation
• Improved management
• Efficient wood production
• Bio-products and energy
• Agroforestry

All US Forests
MMTC/yr
Products
Live Biomass
Woody Debris
Soils
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Carbon Sequestration Analyses

• Stocks in forests, wood products, landfills and
  dumps
• Uncertainty in carbon budget analyses
• Soil carbon accounting
• Management and carbon sequestration

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Potential Carbon Stock Changes on National Forest
Lands (Intense Fire Scenario)
Baseline

Low impact
Range of Uncertainty
High impact
25
Projected Change in Total U.S. Ecosystem Carbon
(VEMAP models)
BIOME-BGC
CENTURY
GTEC
TEM
MC1
LPJ
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Selected Applications of FSGCRP Carbon Cycle
Research
     

• Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and
  sinks (EPA)
• Resources Planning Act Assessments forest
  sector (USDA-FS)
• U.S. Submission to UNFCCC on forest carbon sinks
  (State Dept.)
• Proposed legislation re. forest carbon sinks
  (U.S. Congress)
• Interagency Carbon Cycle Science research
  plans (multi-agency)
• Scientific articles regarding Northern
  Hemisphere carbon sink
• Scientific articles regarding ecosystem C
  responses to multiple stresses
• Publications on forest C measurement,
  monitoring, and accounting methods
• Uncertainty analysis and methods
• General guidance for public and private land
  managers
• Information for educators and public interest
  groups

27
Global Water Cycle

• Climate change impacts on water quantity and
  quality
• Effects of water stress on ecosystem physiology
• Effects of climate change and air pollution on
  nutrient cycling
• Integrated ecosystem process and hydrologic models

28
Water Cycle Potential Effects of Climate Change
on US Forests
29
Water Cycle Potential Effects of Climate Change
on US Forests
30
Delaware River Basin Collaborative Environmental
Monitoring and Research Initiative
Monitoring at Multiple Scales to Link Processes
and Observations
FS, USGS, NPS, NASA
31
Pine Ecophysiology Response to Reduced Rainfall
Normal throughfall in 1999
Kisatchie NF, Louisiana
Normal throughfall (nTF)
85 throughfall excluded in 1999
85 throughfall excluded (TFe)
1993-1998 1999 1999
32
Interactive Effects of N Deposition, Ozone,
Elevated CO2, and Land Use on Carbon Dynamics of
Northern Hardwoods(Ollinger et al., 2002, Global
Change Biology)
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FSGCRP Role in Strategic Planning and National
Assessments

• Forest Service RPA Climate Change Assessment
• Integrated biological and forest socioeconomic
  models
• National Assessment on Climate Variability and
  Change
• Forest Sector Analyses within the National
  Assessment

34
Forest Service Strategic PlanningResource
Assessments

• Mandated by RPA of 1974
• The periodic assessments synthesize and
  integrate
• Current scientific knowledge,
• Current inventories of resource conditions and
• Analyses of alternative future conditions.
• RPA climate change assessments 1990, 1995, 2000

35
Forest Sector Analyses within the National
Assessment

• Forest processes productivity, carbon storage,
  water use
• Forest biodiversity and plant distribution
  changes
• Disturbance interactions fire, drought,
  hurricane, wind, ice, invasives
• Forest socio-economics timber markets, recreation

36
FY 2003 and Future Initiatives

• FY 2003 Presidents Budget
• Improve inventories of carbon biomass
  (0.5 million)
• Sequestration technology demonstration projects
  (1.5
  million)
• Potential Future Initiatives
• Information Center for forest carbon
  sequestration
• North American Carbon Program
• Improve scientific basis for carbon management
• Improve scientific basis for adapting to climate
  change

37
Prospective Contribution to North American Carbon
Program

• Ongoing activities
• Ameriflux, forest inventory, scaling research
• Soil C and coarse root dynamics research
• Estimation of annual carbon inventory
• New enabling developments
• Pilot studies enhancing inventories for C (soil
  CO2 flux, USGS water, link with MODIS)
• Need for new funding
• Increase to improve biomass inventory
• Increase to implement tier 3 at forest sites