Lars Peter Riishojgaard

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THE MOLNIYA ORBITIMAGERa high-latitude
imaging/winds mission concept

• Lars Peter Riishojgaard
• Global Modeling and Assimilation Office/
• Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center

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Science Team

• Lars Peter Riishojgaard, UMBC, PI
• Bob Atlas, GSFC, Simulation/impact experiments
• Dennis Chesters, GSFC, Instrumentation, mission
• Ken Holmlund, EUMETSAT, Algorithm development
• Jeff Key, NESDIS/ORA, Data processing
• Stan Kidder, CIRA, High-latitude applications
• Paul Menzel, NESDIS/ORA, Cloud applications
• Jean-Noël Thépaut, ECMWF, Global NWP applications
• Chris Velden, CIMSS/UW, Algorithm development
• Tom Vonder Haar, CIRA, Satellite meteorology

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Goddard proposal team

• Lars Peter Riishojgard (UMBC/GSFC), PI
• Maureen Madden, Proposal Manager
• Bill Cutlip, Goddard New Opportunities Lead
• Will Mast, Mission Systems Engineer
• John Oberright, Mission Systems Engineer
• Bob Bartlett, Instrument Systems Engineer
• Dennis Chesters, GOES Project Scientist
• Greg Marr, Flight dynamics

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Overview

• High-latitude winds and numerical weather
  prediction
• MODIS winds
• The Molniya Orbit Imager

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Why a new weather mission?

• Weather forecasts (global NWP products) have on
  average become very good
• Reducing the severity and frequency of forecast
  busts high on NWS list of priorities
• Busts over North America often have high-latitude
  origins
• There is a lack of high-latitude wind
  observations

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MODIS winds

• Feature tracking algorithms used on MODIS image
  triplets to derive wind vectors in high latitudes
• Imagery from two channels, 6.7 µ (WV) and 11µ
  (clouds)
• Coverage poleward of 65o
• Positive impact on forecast skill, mostly due to
  6.7µ channel

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Slide courtesy of Jeff Key, CIMSS
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animation courtesy of CIMSS
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Forecast skill at NCEP with MODIS winds (used in
update mode)
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Improvement in hurricane track forecasting due to
assimilation of MODIS winds (slide courtesy of
Zapotocny et al.)
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Status of satellite wind observations

• No operational satellite winds beyond 55-60 deg
  latitude
• Experimental polar winds from MODIS (until 2008)
• Data latency is problematic 4 to 6 hours after
  real time
• Image refresh rate problematic 15 minutes is
  optimal, MODIS 100 minutes
• No water vapor channel on VIIRS (until at least
  2015)
• Latitudinal coverage gap between MODIS and GEO
  winds
• gt Need for geostationary-type imagery over
  high-latitude regions Molniya Orbit Imager is a
  good candidate

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Molniya orbit characteristics

• Highly eccentric Kepler orbit
• Apogee height 39750 km (geostationary orbit
  height 36000 km)
• Perigee height 600 km
• Inclination 63.4 degrees
• Orbital period 11h 58m (half a sidereal day)
• Location of apogee w.r.t. Earth is fixed and
  stable!
• Platform in quasi-stationary imaging position
  near the apogee for about two thirds of the
  duration of the orbit
• Used extensively by USSR (to a lesser degree by
  the US) for communications purposes
• First suggested for meteorological applications
  by Kidder and Vonder Haar (1990)

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Why Molniya orbit?

• Quasi-stationary perspective ideal for feature
  tracking
• Apogee height gt GEO technology can be reused
• Cost savings
• Risk reduction
• Best possible high-latitude coverage per
  satellite
• Fully complements geostationary data no LEO-like
  latitudinal coverage gap
• Simple ground segment real-time dissemination
  can be achieved with a single primary ground
  station, as for GEO
• Target is user delivery of calibrated and
  rectified images within less than 20 minutes and
  winds within less than 60 minutes of real time

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Molniya OSSE (Observing system simulation
experiment) GEOS-4 Atlas et al.
6-hour winds coverage, 4 LEOs ?
Apogee winds coverage, Molniya ?
Forecast improvement over North America, 48 cases
?
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Additional science applications

• Sea ice (Thorsten Markus, GSFC MSC)
• Age, temperature, motion, thickness, model
  validation
• Temporal resolution will benefit operational
  applications, studies of polynyas, leads and
  marginal ice zone
• Vegetation/forest fire monitoring (Elaine Prins,
  NESDIS MSC)
• Detection, intensity monitoring over Alaska,
  Canada, Siberia
• Air quality applications over the Continental US
  (NOAA, EPA)
• Volcanic eruptions SO2, ash clouds (Arlin
  Krueger, UMBC Marianne Guffanti, Dave Schneider,
  USGS)
• NOAA, USGS interested in real-time monitoring
  capabilities for the Alaska Volcano Observatory
  for FAA/commercial aviation customers
• Clouds, fog (Jeff Key, Paul Menzel, NESDIS
  Holger Pedersen, UCPH)
• Several cloud products planned by CIMSS
• Temporal resolution enables e.g. contrail/cirrus
  studies

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Additional science applications (II)

• Polar weather (Gary Hufford, NOAA Oreste Reale,
  UMBC/GSFC)
• Operational monitoring of high-latitude weather
• Development and life cycle of e.g. polar lows
• Snow-cover and albedo monitoring (Jarkko
  Koskinen, FMI)
• Will benefit from temporal resolution primarily
  due to higher probability of clear-sky images
• Regional water quality (Jouni Pulliainen / HUT)
• Dynamic phytoplankton and suspended solids
  mapping in the Baltic Sea
• Surface radiation balance and SVAT models (Henrik
  Soegaard, UCPH)
• Temporal resolution enables incorporation of the
  diurnal cycle in land-surface temperature,
  variability of aerosol loading and humidity in
  SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer) models

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Mission level requirements

• High temporal (15 minutes) and spatial (1 km VIS,
  2 km IR) resolution imagery for all areas N of 60
  degrees N for multitemporal applications and
  derived products
• Full-disc view every 15 minutes within 60 of
  apogee
• Special events rapid-scan capability 1000 x 1000
  km in one minute
• Nominal 3-year mission duration
• Nominal end of life for MODIS is 2008 no water
  water channel on VIIRS until 2015 (earliest
  possible date) 2010 launch strongly desirable
• Real-time operational dissemination of images
  and derived products

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Mission implementation studies

• Overall mission design based on series of
  concurrent engineering studies by the Integrated
  Design Capability at Goddard
• Key IDC results
• Mission is technically feasible and classified as
  low risk
• Total costs of three-year mission 275M (with
  30 margin)
• Space segment
• Instrument vendor selected (Partnership
  Opportunity Document)
• S/C proposals from four vendors currently under
  evaluation
• Ground segment
• NESDIS is helping to draft plans for data
  processing chain and has indicated possibility of
  ground support (Fairbanks station)
• Finland has committed in principle to ground
  support (Sodankyla station data processing)

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MOI Spacecraft (IMDC flight configuration)
Instrument Scan Control
Instrument Cooler Control
Instrument Sensor Module
Instrument Main Electronics
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Molniya Orbit Imager status

• Mature baseline mission concept
• Extensive pre-Phase A study work funded by
  Goddard, supplemented with a strong industry
  participation
• Total cost of 3-year mission 275M
• Goddard Technical Management Review (Office of
  Mission Success), 07/2005 This is
  essentially PDR level
• Mission proposal targeted for anticipated NASA
  Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP)
  Announcement of Opportunity
• Expected cost cap 240M
• Other funding scenarios remain under exploration
• We are working on developing partnerships
• Some of these could substantially change the
  mission architecture

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Strong, broad-based community support

• WMO recommendation
• Operational satellite agencies are encouraged to
  investigate possibilities for ensuring a
  follow-on to the high-latitude winds from MODIS
  with improved timeliness
• Louis Uccellini, Director of NOAA/NCEP
• there is no question that the scientific
  rationale behind the Molniya mission is rock
  solid
• Greg Withee, NESDIS AA
• NESDIS is there now we need to get the rest of
  NOAA onboard
• US Navy, NPOESS IPO, ECMWF, national weather
  services in a number of countries (e.g. Canada,
  UK, Germany, Netherlands, Nordic countries) are
  behind this
• Molniya Orbit Imager will be on the agenda at
  next EUMETSAT Council meeting initial thrust
  coming primarily from Finland and from ECMWF
• Molniya participation as Optional Program
• Polar Satellite Applications Facility (SAF)
  ground station, data processing and dissemination

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Prospective partners/Cost reduction strategies

• National science partners
• NOAA/NESDIS ground support, data processing,
  instrument
• DoD (USAF, NRL/FNMOC) endorsement
• International science partners
• EUMETSAT ground support
• Finland (TEKES, FMI) ground support, space
  segment, launch
• CSA under discussion, supported by MSC
• Partners of opportunity
• University of Calgary/FMI secondary scientific
  payload UV Aurora imager

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Summary

• Geostationary-class imager in a Molniya orbit can
  provide time-continuous water vapor and cloud
  imagery and derived products (e.g. winds) all the
  way to the pole
• Scientific heritage GOES, MODIS
• Low risk approach New science enabled by
  deploying flight-proven technology at a new
  vantage point
• Solid baseline mission concept developed
• Various partnership opportunities still under
  exploration this could impact the overall
  mission architecture

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Why NASA?

• ESE focus on societal benefits improvement in
  weather forecasting is a high-priority objective
• Wide range of science data from a new vantage
  point
• The Molniya Orbit Imager is a pathfinder for a
  potential new operational observing system
• Only NASA can do the engineering and algorithm
  development required for demonstrating to the
  operational agencies that this will work