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Q3 2005 Results

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Cracker Margins. 0. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 2004. Q3. 2004. Q4. 2005. Q1 ... global adjusted unit CCS earnings per barrel* *Annual rolling 4 quarters since 2004 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Q3 2005 Results


1
Q3 2005 Results
  • 27 October 2005

2
Disclaimer statement
  • The following presentation contains
    forward-looking statements that are subject to
    risk factors associated with the oil, gas, power,
    chemicals and renewables businesses. It is
    believed that the expectations reflected in these
    statements are reasonable, but may be affected by
    a variety of variables which could cause actual
    results, trends or reserves replacement to differ
    materially, including, but not limited to price
    fluctuations and crude oil, natural gas and
    refined products, changes in demand for Shell
    Groups products, currency fluctuations, drilling
    and production results, reserve estimates, loss
    of market, industry competition, environmental
    risks, physical risks, risks associated with the
    identification of suitable potential acquisition
    properties and targets and the successful
    negotiation and consummation of transactions, the
    risk of doing business in developing countries
    and countries subject to international sanctions,
    legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments
    including potential litigation and regulatory
    effects arising from recategorisation of
    reserves, economic and financial market
    conditions in various countries and regions,
    political risks, project delay or advancement,
    approvals and cost estimates.
  • Please refer to the Annual Report on Form 20-F
    for the year ended December 31, 2004 (as amended)
    for a description of certain important factors,
    risks and uncertainties that may affect the Shell
    Group's businesses. Neither Royal Dutch Shell
    plc nor any member of the Shell Group undertakes
    any obligation to publicly update or revise any
    of these forward-looking statements, whether to
    reflect new information, future events or other
    information.
  • Cautionary Note to US Investors
  • The United States Securities and Exchange
    Commission (SEC) permits oil and gas companies,
    in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only
    proved reserves that a company has demonstrated
    by actual production or conclusive formation
    tests to be economically and legally producible
    under existing economic and operating conditions.
    We use certain terms in this presentation, such
    as expected producible resources and amount of
    reserves we expect to produce, that the SECs
    guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in
    filings with the SEC.

3
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4
Q3 2005 Highlights
  • EP Building resource base, strong unit earnings
  • GP Projects delivered, growing LNG position
  • Downstream Strong refining, trading and
    chemicals excellent cash generation
  • 2004 2006 divestment target achieved
  • 15 bln return to shareholders in 2005

5
Strong performance across the business
Q3 2005 billion
Q3 2004 billion
Income up 68 CCS earnings up 68 Cash from
operations up 34 Divestment proceeds Capital
investment
9.0 7.4 10.5 4.3 3.7
5.4 4.4 7.8 0.8 3.2
CCS for Oil Products segment only excluding
working capital and taxation accrued/paid
excluding minority interest in Sakhalin
6
Hurricane
Yellowhammer
NEW ORLEANS
HOUSTON
Fairway
Port Arthur
Convent
MP 252
Norco
Tahoe
Deer Park
Ram-Powell
Cognac
NaKika
WD 143
Hickory
Mars
WC 565
Cougar
Mensa
BZ A19
Enchilada
Boxer
Ursa
Popeye
Brutus
Bullwinkle
Katrina
Auger
Holstein
NPI 975
Rita
Satellites
Hubs
Scale 100 miles
7
Oil prices and industry margins
Cracker Margins
Refining Margins
Crude Oil Prices
/bbl
/t
/bbl
20
600
65
60
500
16
55
400
12
50
300
45
8
200
40
4
100
35
0
30
0
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
US Ethane
WTI
ANS USWC coking
Brent
W Europe Naptha
WTS USGC coking
Rotterdam
Singapore
8
EP Increasing unit earnings
  • Good earnings growth
  • Strong unit earnings
  • Exploration success
  • Production in line with previous guidance

12
60
10
50
8
40
6
30
4
20
2
10
0
0
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
EP Unit earnings adjusted for non operating items
Cumulative unit earnings percentage growth
Oil realisations percentage growth
9
GP Growing the position
LNG Capacity (Shell Share) - mtpa
Olokola T2
35
  • Strong earnings
  • LNG volumes up 2
  • On target for 14 annual capacity increase to
    2009
  • NLNG 4/5, Qalhat delivered in line with
    expectation

Olokola T1
Nigeria 7/8
30
Persia T2
Persia T1
25
QatarGas 4
Gorgon T2
Gorgon T1
20
Nigeria
15
Oman
Sakhalin
10
NWS
5
Malaysia
Brunei
0
2010-13 estimate
2009
Sakhalin at 55 Shell Share
10
Downstream macro environment Q3/05 vs Q2/05
Europe
Ref.
Mkt.
USGC
Asia Pacific
USWC
Ref.
Ref.
Ref.
Mkt.
Mkt.
Mkt.
Africa
US Mid-West
Ref.
Ref.
Latin America
Mkt.
Mkt.
Ref.
lt ? 2.0/bbl
Ref. Industry Marker Margins
Mkt.
Mkt. Marketing Margins (Gasoline Margins
in US)
gt ? 2.0/bbl
11
Oil Products delivery continues
Oil Productsglobal adjusted unit CCS earnings
per barrel
  • CCS earnings over 1.7 bln
  • Highly competitive unit earnings
  • Refinery intake volumes down 7
  • Marketing volumes down 4
  • Strong refining and trading performance
  • Retail margins under pressure

3.0
Competitor range
Shell
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2002
2003
2004
Q3
05
Annual rolling 4 quarters since 2004
12
Oil Products excellent cash generation
Q3 2005 Cash In bln
Q3 2005 Cash Out bln
0.2
0.6 bln
Divestments
Capital Investment
0.7
0.6
4.1
DACF
3.1
3.0
0.6
Working capital
1.2
Q3 2004
Q3 2004
Q3 2005
Q3 2005
Cash surplus 0.6 bln
13
Chemicals strong cash generation
Asset utilisation rates
86
  • Earnings of 0.3 bln
  • Cash from operations 0.5 bln
  • Asset utilisation 78 impacted by USGC hurricanes

84
82
80
78
76
2003
2004
Q105
Q205
Q305
USGC hurricane impact
Excluding working capital
14
Focus on cash
Q3 2005 Cash In 15.0 bln
Q3 2005 Cash Out 11.7 bln
3.3 bln excess cash generated
Divestments
4.3
Other
0.4
Working Capital
3.8
Dividends
1.9
DACF
10.7
Buybacks
1.9
Capital Investment
3.7
Net working capital and taxation accrued/paid
Shell share
15
Divestment target delivered
bln
15.0
2004-2006 divestment target
13.7
12.0
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q2 05
Target achieved ahead of schedule
16
Looking ahead
  • Production outlook
  • Including hurricane impact 2005 around 3.5 mln
    boe/d, 2006 in lower half of 3.5 to 3.8 mln boe/d
    range
  • 2009 outlook unchanged 3.8 to 4.0 mln boe/d
  • Capital investment remains at 15 bln for 2005
  • 2006 under review
  • Reaffirm commitment to return surplus cash to
    shareholders
  • 5 bln in 2005
  • Purchase of Royal Dutch shares incremental
  • Over 15 bln cash to shareholders in 2005

17
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