Sea Level Rise and Ecosystem Services

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Sea Level Rise and Ecosystem Services of Tidal
Marshes
Steven Pennings, University of Houston In
collaboration with Chris Craft, Indiana
University (PI) Samantha Joye, University of
Georgia Dick Park, Jon Clough, Eco Modeling
Jeff Ehman, Image Matters
U.S. EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR)
program
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Ecosystem services

• Shoreline protection
• CO2 and CH4 fluxes

• Retention of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus
• Support of higher trophic levels

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GCE LTER
Sapelo Sound
Sapelo Island
Doboy Sound
Altamaha Sound
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Salt tidal marsh - Spartina alterniflora
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Brackish tidal marsh Juncus roemerianus
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Fresh tidal marsh Zizaniopsis milacea
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Craft, in review
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Craft, in review
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EPA Three estuaries

• Altamaha
• Ogeechee
• Satilla

• Tidal fresh
• Tidal brackish
• Tidal marine

Two sites/salinity level/estuary, n18 sites
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Land
Sea
Tidal fresh-water marsh
Salt marsh
Regulation Functions Shoreline Protection CO2
CH4 Flux Carbon sequestration NP
retention Sediment Deposition Denitrification
Habitat Functions Macrophyte
Diversity Marsh Nekton Productivity
Functions Macrophyte Productivity Marsh Nekton

Predictions largely based on William E. Odum 1988
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Research Questions

• How will rising sea level affect abundance
• and distribution of tidal wetlands AND
• their delivery of ecosystem services?
• How will climate variability (precipitation,
• temperature, etc.) affect delivery of
  ecosystem services?

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Research Questions

• How will rising sea level affect abundance
• and distribution of tidal wetlands AND
• their delivery of ecosystem services?
• How will climate variability (precipitation,
• temperature, etc.) affect delivery of
  ecosystem services?

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I. Sea Level Rise

• Quantify ecosystem services of salt, brackish
• and tidal fresh marshes.
• Overlay ecosystem services on GIS map of
• wetlands.
• Simulate different scenarios of sea level rise
  to
• predict change in wetland area, type and
• ecosystem services.

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Quantify ecosystem services of salt, brackish
and tidal fresh marshes

• Soil deposition
• C, N and P sequestration in soils and
  macrophytes
• CO2 and CH4 fluxes from soils
• Macrophyte primary production and diversity
• Nekton biomass and diversity

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Overlay ecosystem services on GIS map of wetlands.
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Simulate different scenarios of sea level
rise--marsh accretion

• Marshes rise in elevation as sediment is
  deposited and new roots are produced and die
• Accretion can be measured using several
  techniques (feldspar layers, SET, lead or cesium
  dating of cores)
• Accretion is taken into account in our
  projections using cesium dating accretion
  estimates from GCE sites

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SLAMM Version 5 (Sea Level Affects
Marshes Model)
SLAMM uses elevation, NWI, tide range and
historic sea level rise data to parameterize
the model. The simulation is run using A1B
SRES (mean) scenario.
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2050
1986
2100
2075
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Net Change (1986-2100)
Wetland Area C Sequestration
(ha) (MT/yr) --------
------- -------------- Tidal
fresh -3,500 -4,200 (120 g C/m2/yr) Brackish
marsh 400 480 (120 g C/m2/yr) Salt
marsh -5,400 -1620 (30 g C/m2/yr)
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Caveats

• Projected changes in marsh type may not be
  perfect
• Marsh accretion rates may increase as marshes
  submerge
• Nevertheless, this work is novel because it will
  combine projections of area change with ecosystem
  service estimates
• Further simulations can explore areas of
  uncertainty

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II. Climate Variability
Identify relationships between climate
forcing functions (annual rainfall,
temperature, discharge, salinity) and
temporal variation in ecosystem services
(emergent biomass, epifauna, sediment
deposition, accretion/subsidence and
commercial shrimp harvest). (GCE LTER
monitoring data, NMFS data)
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Summary

• Sea level rise will change the area of different
  types of tidal marshes
• Different types of tidal marshes provide
  different levels of ecosystem services
• By combining estimates of both area and services,
  we hope to forecast how net marsh ecosystem
  services will change with rising sea levels and
  changing climate
• Work is in progress, stay tuned for results, wed
  be happy for your input