Climate System,Climate Prediction and Climate Change

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Climate System,Climate Prediction and Climate
Change
Dr.SONG Yan Dept. of Science and Technology
Training Training Centre of China Meteorological
Administration
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? Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change
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Causes of climate change
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Causes of climate change
Human factors
Natural factors
GHGs
Aerosols
Land use
Solar
Natural variability
Volcano
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Possibly anthropogenic factors for climate change
Natural factors
CO2
Greenhouse effect
Sulfate???
Aerosols effect
CH4
Black carbon
Climate change
NO
Nitrate???
CFCs
Mineral
Land use change
Farming
Irrigation
Deforestation
Urbanization
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Anyway, dependence on fossil fuels is a
problematic situation.
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Conclusions by the IPCC AR4
Most of the observed increase in
globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. It
is likely that there has been significant
anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years
averaged over each continent except Antarctica.
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Adaptation and Mitigation
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Definitions of Adaptation and Mitigation

• Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human
  systems in response to actual or expected
  climatic stimuli (pl. stimulus) or their effects,
  which moderates harm or exploits (??) bene'ficial
  opportunities.
• Mitigation refers to spe'cific (???)climate
  policies will be implemented to reduce greenhouse
  gas emissions.

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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and
mitigation

• The TAR used the following definitions of climate
  change
• mitigation and adaptation.
• Mitigation An anthropogenic intervention to
  reduce the
• sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases
  (IPCC,
• 2001a).
• Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human
  systems in
• response to actual or expected climatic stimuli
  or their
• effects, which moderates harm or exploits
  beneficial
• opportunities (IPCC, 2001a).

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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and
mitigation

• It follows from(????) these definitions that
  mitigation reduces all impacts (positive and
  negative) of climate change and thus reduces the
  adaptation challenge, whereas (?)adaptation is
  selective it can take advantage of (??)positive
  impacts and reduce negative ones (Goklany, 2005).

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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and
mitigation
The two options are implemented on the same
local or regional scale, and may be 'motivated
(??,??)by local and regional pri'orities and
interests, as well as global concerns(?????).
Mitigation has global benefits (an'cillary(???)
benefits might be realised at the local/regional
level), although effective mitigation needs to
involve a sufficient number of major
greenhouse-gas emitters to foreclose(??)
leakage(??). Adaptation typically works on the
scale of an impacted system, which is regional at
best(??), but mostly local (although some
adaptation might result in spill-overs(????)
across national boundaries, for example by
changing international co'mmodity(???) prices in
agricultural or forest-product (???)markets).
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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and
mitigation

• Expressed as CO2-equivalents(???), emissions
  reductions achieved by different mitigation
  actions can be compared and if the costs of
  implementing the actions are known, their
  cost-effectiveness(????) can be determined and
  compared (Moomaw et al., 2001). The benefits of
  adaptation are more difficult to express in a
  single metric(???), impeding(?????,?????)
  comparisons between adaptation efforts. Moreover,
  as a result of the predominantly local or
  regional effect of adaptation, benefits of
  adaptation will be valued differently depending
  on the social, economic and political
  contexts(??) within which they occur.

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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and
mitigation
The benefits of mitigation carried out today
will be evidenced (???) in several decades
because of the long residence(??/??) time of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
(ancillary(???) benefits such as reduced air
pollution are possible in the near term), whereas
many adaptation measures would be effective
immediately and yield benefits by reducing
vulnerability(???) to climate variability. As
climate change continues, the benefits of
adaptation (i.e., avoided damage) will increase
over time. Thus there is a delay between
incurring(???) the costs of mitigation and
realising(??) its benefits from smaller climate
change, while the time span between
expenditures(??) and returns of adaptation is
usually much shorter.
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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and
mitigation
This difference(?????) is augmented in
analyses adopting(??) positive (???)discount
rates(???). These a'symmetries(???) have led to a
situation whereby(??) the initiative(??) for
mitigation has tended to stem(??) from
international agreements and ensuing(???)
national public policies (????)(sometimes
supplemented(??) by community-based or
private-sector (?????)initiatives), whereas the
bulk of (???)adaptation actions have historically
been 'motivated by the self-interest(??) of
affected private actors and communities, possibly
facilitated (???) by public policies(????).
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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and
mitigation
There are a number of ways in which
adaptation and mitigation are related(????) at
different levels of decision-making. Mitigation
efforts can foster(??) adaptive capacity(????) if
they e'liminate market failures(??) and
distortions(??), as well as perverse(????)
subsidies(???) that prevent (??)actors from
making decisions on the basis of the true social
costs (????)of the available options(??). At a
highly aggregated scale, mitigation expenditures
(??)appear to divert(??) social or private
resources and reduce the funds available for
adaptation, but in reality the actors and budgets
involved(???) are different. Both options change
relative prices(????), which can lead to slight
adjustments in consumption(??) and investment(??)
patterns(??) and thus to changes in the affected
economys development pathway(??), but direct
trade-offs are rare. Trade-off A balancing of
adaptation and mitigation when it is not possible
to carry out both activities fully at the same
time (e.g., due to financial or other
constraints).
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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and
mitigation

• The implications (??)of adaptation can be both
  positive(???) and negative(???) for mitigation.
  For example, afforestation(??) that is part of a
  regional adaptation strategy also makes a
  positive contribution to mitigation. In contrast,
  adaptation actions that require increased energy
  use from carbon-emitting sources (e.g., indoor
  cooling) would affect mitigation efforts
  negatively.

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Summary of main findings of AR4

• Observational evidence from all continents and
  most oceans shows that many natural systems are
  being affected by regional climate changes,
  particularly temperature increases.
• A global assessment of data since 1970 has
  shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has
  had a discernible(????) influence on many
  physical and biological systems.
• Other effects of regional climate changes on
  natural and human environments are emerging,
  although many are difficult to discern due to
  adaptation and non-climatic drivers.
• More specific(???) information is now
  available across a wide range of systems and
  sectors (??)concerning the nature of future
  impacts(???????), including for some fields not
  covered in previous assessments.

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Summary of main findings of AR4

• More specific(???) information is now
  available across the regions of the world
  concerning future impacts, including for some
  places not covered in previous assessments.
• Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more
  systematically for a range of(???) possible
  increases in global average temperature.
• Impacts due to altered(????) frequencies and
  intensities of extreme weather, climate and
  sea-level events are very likely to change.
• Some large-scale climate events have the
  potential(??) to cause very large impacts,
  especially after the 21st century.

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Summary of main findings of AR4

• Impacts of climate change will vary regionally
  but, aggregated and discounted(??) to the
  present, they are very likely to impose(??) net
  annual costs (???)which will increase over time
  as global temperatures increase.
• Some adaptation is occurring now, to(??)
  observed and projected future climate change, but
  on a limited basis.
• Adaptation will be necessary to address(deal
  with/??) impacts resulting from the warming which
  is already unavoidable due to past emissions.
• A wide array of(???) adaptation options(??)
  is available, but more extensive adaptation than
  is currently occurring is required
  (?????????????????)to reduce vulnerability to
  future climate change. There are barriers(??),
  limits(??) and costs(??), but these are not fully
  understood(??).

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Summary of main findings of AR4

• Vulnerability to climate change can be
  ex'acerbated(??) by the presence of other
  stresses(?????).
• Future vulnerability depends not only on climate
  change but also on development pathway(??).
• Sustainable development can reduce
  vulnerability to climate change, and climate
  change could impede(??) nations abilities to
  achieve(??) sustainable development pathways.
• Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or
  delayed by mitigation.(??????????????????)?
• A portfolio (the range of products/?????) of
  adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish
  the risks (????)associated with climate change.
• Portfolio A set of actions to achieve a
  particular goal. A climate policy portfolio may
  include adaptation, mitigation, research and
  technology development, as well as other actions
  aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate change.

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Problems and gaps between China and Developed
Countries
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• Problems and gaps in observations, in particular
  in developing countries
• 1. Insu'fficiency of observations
• Sparseness(??) of observational stations
• Insufficiency (??)of long-term climate data
  series
• Lackness of observations for some key variables
• 2. Lowering representation of observations(???????
  ??)
• 'Inhomoge'neities in many climate data series
• Lack of meta-data(???) for observational records
• Effects of urbanization on air temperature
  records
• 3. Weakness of capacity
• Difficulties to raise funds
• Lack of professionals in managing and analyzing
  of data

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• Needs for improving observations of developing
  countries
• 1. Constructing national observational systems
• A better in situ observational network
• Development and application of satellite
  products
• An 'integrated observational station network
• Reconstruction of proxy(????) or paleo-(?) data
  series
• 2. Improving observational settings
• More ho'mogenous and un-biased(???) data series
• Development of meta-data for adjusting
  in-homogeneities
• 3. Strengthening capacity
• In data storage and management
• In building of institutions (??)

2013-12-16
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• Suggestions to improve observations of
• developing countries
• Encouraging regional cooperative observations-
• e.g. Asia-Pacific GEOSS, APN, MAHASRI,
  MAIRS
• Increasing the roles of UNFCCC, WMO, UNEP, WCRP,
  IGBP, GCOS and GEOSS
• Maximizing the roles of the GEF, SCCF, the Kyoto
  Protocol Adaptation Fund and so on
• Strengthening the roles of regional climate
  centers
• e.g. Beijing Climate Center and Tokyo
  Climate Center
• Raising the awareness of publics and
  policy-makers
• by organizations inc. NGOs(Non-governmental
  organizations)

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• Chinas experiences achievements
• A good basic observation network, and China is
  upgrading the network under the framework of the
  China-GCOS program
• Operational monitoring of atmospheric
  compositions, energy budget, water and carbon
  cycles, ecosystem and land use, ice and snow, et
  al.
• Submissions of real-time observational data of
  China-GCOS stations and historical data from
  national stations to the WDC-Meteorology
• An operational system of climatic monitoring,
  prediction and impact assessment in the BCC
• Cooperative observation and data application
  programs

2013-12-16
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Monitoring of weather and climate extremes by CMA
Cold wave
Tropical cyclone
Dust storm
Drought monitoring
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• Measures to further improve the observation
  system of China
• Increasing observational stations in data-sparse
  areas
• Maintaining the representation of observational
  settings
• Monitoring the variables other than basic climate
  variables
• Developing satellite climate products
• Training young and local experts
• Coordinating observational programs among
  different ministries(??)
• Enhancing regional and international cooperation

2013-12-16
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The End Comments?
Questions?
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Assignments

• 1 Please give the definitions of Adaptation,
  Vulnerability and Mitigation.
• 2 What are causes for climate change?
• 3 Understand the differences and similarities
  between adaptation and mitigation of climate
  change.
• 3 Please understand the main findings of IPCC
  AR4.
• 4 What are problems and gaps between China and
  Developed Countries?