Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models

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Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models

• Jessie Cherry,
• IARC/ARSC_at_UAF

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Typical treatment of human/resource dimensions

• Offline model runs
• Use of projections and scenarios
• Qualitative characterizations of the future

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Climate Change Planning
Walsh Chapman PRISM downscaled multi-model
projections of temperature and precipitation for
AK under various scenarios of Greenhouse Gas
emissions
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Problems with this approach

• Creates a strong disconnect between the physical
  modeling community and the climate impacts
  community
• Makes it more difficult to provide decision
  support to stakeholders
• Could be missing important feedbacks between
  human agents and the climate system

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Approaches to CCIAV
IPCC, 2007
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Integrated Assessment

• Definition any model which combines scientific
  and socio-economic aspects of climate change
  primarily for the purpose of assessing policy
  options for climate change control (Kelly
  Kolstad, 1998)

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Integrated Assessment Modeling
McGuffie Henderson-Sellers, 2005
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Integrated Assessment Models
McGuffie Henderson-Sellers, 2005
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Characterizing the Future
IPCC, 2007
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Proposal

• Code Human System Modules directly into a new
  Arctic System Model to make it truly next
  generation and system

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Example of Human System Module
Goal is to be model independent work with CCSM
and other models/ couplers
Cherry
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Some Human Dimensions in the Arctic

• Oil and Gas Recovery ( spill transport)
• Freshwater Supply
• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo)
• Commercial, Subsistence, Sport Fishing
• Infrastructure
• Coastal Erosion
• Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou
• Marine Transport

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Decision-Support

• What is that?
• Turban defines it as "an interactive, flexible,
  and adaptable computer-based information system,
  especially developed for supporting the solution
  of a non-structured management problem for
  improved decision making. It utilizes data,
  provides an easy-to-use interface, and allows for
  the decision maker's own insights. (Wikipedia)

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Example of Climate-Related Decision Support

• https//rsgis.crrel.usace.army.mil/aedis/

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Goals of a Pilot Project

• Create one or more model-independent modules for
  socio-economic decision-making
• Test in AK, but should have international
  applications at least across pan-Arctic
• Create cutting edge model, i.e. one that includes
  human dimension directly

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Interactions between Module components/Climate
model

• Need not occur at every model time step
• One or two way coupling may be appropriate
  depending on the system

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BSIERP
BSIERP Vertically Integrated models
Economic/ecological model
FEAST Higher trophic level model
NPZ-B-D Lower trophic level
ROMS Physical Oceanography
Nested models
BEST
Climate scenarios
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Infrastructure

• Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure
  study done for Alaska by Peter Larsen and
  collaborators

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Flow Chart of Model Processes
Graphs
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ISER Public Infrastructure Study
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Wind Farm Parameterization for WRF
Adams Keith Modification of the MYJ PBL
scheme Similar work being done commercially by
3TIER, AER, others
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MMS-WRF winds 1
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MMS-WRF winds 2
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MMS-WRF winds 3
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MMS-WRF winds 4
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Hydropower AEA
AEA Energy Atlas, 2007
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Ship track
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Readiness?

• If we dont start to integrate these models
  they may never become ready
• Data management may be the biggest challenge
• May need to modify existing couplers/design a
  human dimension standard
• May need to design community decision
  support tool

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Readiness

• Oil and Gas Recovery ( spill transport)
• Freshwater Supply
• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo)
• Commercial, Subsistence Sport Fishing
• Infrastructure
• Coastal Erosion
• Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou
• Marine Transport ( emissions)

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A few of the many challenges

• Data acquisition and management (international)
• Models appropriate for the pan-Arctic domain
• Decision support interface
• Representing uncertainty quantitatively
  (including inter-temporal discount rate)

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Why code human systems directly into models?

• There are (nearly) appropriate existing models
• We have the computing resources
• Bridges the gaps between physical system and
  human dimension
• Its interesting work at the frontiers of
  research!!!

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Thanks

• ?

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Communicating uncertainty
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New Scientific Methodology?
Funtowicz Ravetz, in Ecological Economics, 1991
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Arctic human dimensions

• Oil and Gas Module (spill transport)
• Rural Resilience (wind power potential)
• Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline)
• Freshwater (hydropower, water supply)
• Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem)
• Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)

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BSIERP Lower Trophic Level Ecosystem Model
Predation Losses
Euphausiids
Detritus
14 component Model NPZD-Benthos
Neocalanus
Pseudocalanus
Large microzooplankton
Small microzooplankton
Small Phytoplankton
Large Phytoplankton
Iron
Ammonium
Nitrate
Benthic Detritus
Benthic Infauna
Benthos