Model Simulations Of Ozone Formation Over Israel, The West Bank, And Jordan E. Weinroth, M. Luria, A. Ben-Nun, C. Emery, J. Kaplan, M. Peleg and Y. Mahrer Seagram Center for Soil and Water Sciences Faculty of Agriculture The Hebrew University Rehovot

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Model Simulations Of Ozone Formation Over Israel,
The West Bank, And JordanE. Weinroth, M. Luria,
A. Ben-Nun, C. Emery, J. Kaplan, M. Pelegand Y.
MahrerSeagram Center for Soil and Water Sciences
Faculty of AgricultureThe Hebrew University
Rehovot 76100 IsraelR. Bornstein, Dept. of
Meteorology, San Jose State University, San
Jose, CA, USAS. Kasakseh, Applied Research
Institute JerusalemBethlehem, West bank27th
NATO/CCMS/ITMBanff Center, Banff, Alberta,
Canada24-29 Oct 2004 
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FUNDING USAID/MERC PROGRAM
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OUTLINE

• PROJECT OBJECTIVES
• METEOROLOGICAL PATTERNS
• RAMS AND MM5 RESULTS
• EMISSION PATTERNS
• CAMx RESULTS
• CONCLUSIONS

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• Specific objectives
• Install environmental monitoring sites
• Prepare environmental databases
• Prepare regional climatology
• Conduct field campaigns during periods conducive
  to poor regional AQ
• (5) Apply RAMS MM5 and CAMx to increase
  understanding of current future air quality
  problems

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• Results show
• spatial temporal variations in met factors
  air quality concentrations
• temporal spatial emission patterns that reflect
  land use patterns
• RAMS winds reproduce observed transport patterns
• CAMx ozone fields reproduce transboundary
  transport patterns observed by aircraft

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Topo map of study area
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Land-use map
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Emission Inventory 1997- 8

• Large Stationary (point) sources (58 fuel
  consumption)
• 400 Medium Stationary (point) sources (6.6)
• Small Stationary (area) sources (12.2)
• Solvents (area) sources
• Biogenic Stationary (area) sources (isoprene and
  monoterpene)
• Mobile (area) sources, both ground based and
  aerial

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Weather Conditions Preview

• Pre-episode subtropical H ?
• slow speeds, low mixing depth
• Episode
• shallow Persian thermal trough penetrates ?
• H withdraws ? increased surface HPG ? augmented
  westerly sea breeze front ? inland elevated ozone
  concentration

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EPA uMM5 at SJSU

• As close as possible to RAMS set-up
• 3 nested grids on 96 CPU cluster
• Initialized updated every 6 hr with ECMWF
  fields
• Topography from GTOPO30 project, horizontal grid
  spacing of 30 sec (approx 1 km2)
• Land-use DTM (25 x 25 m2) for 2nd 3rd grids
• MM5 Met fields will also be used as input to CAMx
• Meso wind convention flag is 5 m/s full barb
  is 1 m/s

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CAMx version 3.10

• Map projection Polar Stereographic
• Grid area 270 x 370 km2. Cells 5 X 5 km2
• Transport algorithm area preserving flux-form
  advection solver (Bott 1989).
• CBM-IV Carbon Bond Mechanism CMC fast solver.
• Plume-in-grid sub model used for main stationary
  sources. Maturity parameters 2500 m or 12hr.

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Camx Results vs Airborne Measurements
CAMx model
Flight Path
Jerusalem
Jerusalem
1.8.97 1500
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Camx Results vs Airborne Measurements
CAMx model
Flight Path
Jerusalem
Jerusalem
7.8.97 1400
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Camx Results vs Measurements
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8 Emission Input Scenarios

• All emission sources
• All Industry sources
• Main (large) Industry sources
• Medium and small (low) industry
• Without Industry Vehicles, Solvents
  Vegetation
• Vehicles only
• Without vehicles All Industry, Solvents
  Vegetation
• Without emissions (initial and boundary
  conditions)

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All emission sources
1.8.97 1500
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All industry sources
1.8.97 1500
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Large industry sources
1.8.97 1500
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Low industry sources
1.8.97 1500
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Without emission sources
1.8.97 1500
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Without industry sources
1.8.97 1500
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Vehicle sources
1.8.97 1500
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Without vehicle sources
1.8.97 1500
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All industry sources
1.8.97 1500
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Without emission sources
1.8.97 1500
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Ozone Peaks for all Scenarios 1 Aug 97
Source O3 Peak (ppb) Comparison to All Sources Peak in (discounting initial 45 ppb)
All sources 116 100
Without emissions 56 15
Industry low 58 18
All industry 98 75
Industry large 97 73
Without Industry 82 51
Without vehicles 103 81
Vehicles 80 49
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• Future Plans
• GIS/RS from TAU, ARIJ, an EPRI to determine
  gridded fields of sfc characteristics (e.g., z0,
  e, a, LU/LC) for uMM5 and CAMx  
• Urbanized EPA MM5 meso-model (uMM5xx) will
  simulate additional flow cases on the 106 CPU
  SJSU cluster
• CAMx will be run with current precursor
  emissions using output from the RAMS and uMM5xx
  simulations
•  ARIJ, EPRI, HUJI planners will identify future
  emission scenarios from 2010 2020 population
  conditions (when regional populations will be 2 x
  present values) to test in CAMx
•  Jordanian scientists will become part of project

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FIRST CALL ASAAQ2005 THE 2005
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND AIR QUALITY CONF WILL BE
HELD ON 27-29 APRIL 2005 IN DOWNTOWN SAN
FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA, USBA. ABSTRACT SUBMISSION
INFO CAN BE FOUND AT THE AMERICAN METEOR-OLOGICAL
SOCIETY WEB PAGE AMETSOC.ORG OR FROM BOB
BORNSTEIN AT PBLMODEL_at_HOTMAIL.COM OR FROM GREG
CARMICHAEL AT GCARMICH_at_ENGINEERING.UIOWA.EDU