NRCS-USDA Snow Survey

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NRCS-USDA Snow Survey Drought
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There is a fundamental difference between Drought
in the West and drought in other areas
In non-western areas drought is simply a
substantial deviation from expected precipitation.
In the West 70 to nearly 100 of streamflow is
from snowmelt drought becomes highly dependent
on Snow and Reservoir Storage.
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Because streamflow in the West is so tied to Snow
We have the advantage of being able to predict
runoff from measured snow.
The combination of known Reservoir Storage and
predicted Runoff from Snowmelt gives between 2
and 6 months lead time for drought mitigation a
significant advantage for Agriculture,
Hydro-Power, etc.
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A brief overview of Snow Survey Snow Survey Utah
1923, in Salt Lake City 1912. The good old days!
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These are the much better days!
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Even Better Days! SNOTEL provides hourly data 365
days a year. Our objective is to fully automate
all manual sites.
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A constant battle between drought
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And Flood.
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• Summary
• Snowpack
• Reservoir Storage
• Streamflow

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Sites experiencing record or near record March
to April 2004 snowpack changes
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Lake Powell Water Year Natural Inflow 1922-2004
1000s acre-feet
of average
2000-2004 50 of avg Worst 5 years in at least
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Major Colorado River Storage above Hoover Dam
1935-2004
Total Capacity
1000s acre-feet
Other Upper Basin Flaming Gorge, Fontenelle,
Navajo, Blue Mesa
Lake Powell
Lake Mead
Data USBR
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Major Colorado River Storage above Hoover Dam
1935-2004
What storage would have been if Hoover was the
last dam built
1000s acre-feet
Total Capacity
Lake Mead
Completely empty April 2003 to today
Caveats doesnt account for changed reservoir
evaporation or changed management
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Reservoir contents are approaching historic
lows. Rates of decline have been unprecedented.
Bear Lake Usable Contents
Thousands Acre-feet
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Drought Impacts the stuff you know
Billions lost in agricultural production
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Millions of Forest Acres lost to Fire
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Millions of forest acres lost to drought stress
induced insect infestations.
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Loss of Hydropower generation!
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Drought Impacts stuff you may not have thought
about. Yet.
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Current elevation is 3570, power generation stops
at 3490. This could be as soon as 1 year (a 2002
runoff year) or in 2 years at 50 of average
flow. Lake Powell produces 5000 giga-watt hours
per year. There are other really nasty things
that could happen given a several more years of
drought.
Lake Powell
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Barges vs Rail vs Truck VS RECREATION-WATER RIGHTS
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On the Columbia/Snake system 35 of wheat and
20 feedgrains are exported from the Pacific
Northwest
About 40 is transported by Barge
If barge transportation stopped, it would take
and estimated 700,000 semi-trucks to meet the
volume.
One barge will fill 35 rail cars
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600,000 acres of sage lost in Utah alone. The
loss of habitat increases the pressure on the
Sage Grouse and a potential ESA listing.
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No official government endorsement is expressly
given or implied as the US government is an equal
opportunity beer facilitator.
However Anheuser Busch regularly calls Snow
Survey for drought assessments related to grain
and hops production.
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Virgin Spinedace, Loach Minnow, Woundfin Minnow,
June Sucker, Humpback Chub, Bonytail Chub,
Roundtail Chub, Colorado Squawfish, Razorback
Sucker, Flannelmouth Sucker, Silvery Minnow, etc.
23 of 36 native fish species of the southwest
have some problems mostly lots of problems and
drought compounds the situation.
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New data collection parameter for SNOTEL Soil
Moisture Sensors measure Capacitance and
Conductance, output is Soil Moisture by Volume.
Sensors installed at the 2, 8 and 20 depths.
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Soil moisture has long been a missing part of the
snowmelt/runoff equation
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Parrish Creek Regression Statistics R-SQR Stand
ard Error SWE 0.40 246 Nov
SM 0.74 196 March SM 0.88 136
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• Other Soil Moisture uses
• Surrogate fuel moisture sensor
• Silviculture 8 depth for moisture and
  temperature for seedling planting.
• Forage Production-grazing allotment
• Access road damage, etc.
• Climate assessment.

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Heres hoping 2005 is a much better year than the
past 5.