ESP 165: Climate Policy

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ESP 165 Climate Policy

• Mike Springborn
• Department of
• Environmental Science Policy

Image http//soulveggie.blogs.com/photos/uncatego
rized/hexglobesm021_1.jpg
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Climate policy questions and lenses

• How aggressively and in what way should society
  take action to reduce damages from climate
  change?
• balance between expected
• impacts/costs and policy
• response options and their costs
• Mitigation versus adaptation
• Economics/policy science/
• ethics/climate science
• game theory, theories on the use
• of science in policy and analysis
• of public attitudes.
• International/national/state

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Class Website
Spring 2014
http//www.des.ucdavis.edu/faculty/Springborn/cour
ses/esp165/index.html Can find via my website
(Google Springborn) or via the course
description Smartsite.
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Course readings

• Articles are hyper-linked
• You may need to be logged into Smartsite or be on
  the UC Davis network access to retrieve some
  articles

2014
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Assignments and grading

• Your final grade will be based on
• Active and informed participation in class
  15
• Short answer and policy memo writing
  assignments 25
• In-class presentation (or alternative) 10
• Midterm exam 25
• Final exam 25

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Class participation

• Active participation in class
• asking questions,
• answering questions
• offering commentary
• Informed participation
• Understanding of both lecture materials and
  assigned readings.
• Attendance will be recorded.
• One absence allowed with no effect on
  participation grade.
• Subsequent absences each will result in a
  half-grade reduction in your participation grade.
• Quizzes
• Simple quizzes at the beginning of class will
  assess preparation for participating.
• Will occur randomly. First quiz will happen with
  certainty next Thursday.

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In-class presentation

• Preparation and delivery to the class of a 20
  minute presentation on a particular climate
  policy topic
• e.g. Ethical critiques of discounting future
  benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation
• you will also moderate the in-class discussion to
  follow the presentation
• Or.

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The problem in a nutshell
Trenberth 2009
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Higher GHG concentrations map to uncertain but
substantial changes in temperature
Pizer 2007
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The paleoclimatic record suggests anticipated GHG
concentrations are quite unusual
Dieter et al. 2008
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Predicted outcomes are uncertainthe recent
mismatch between increasing GHG concentrations
and flat temperature is a puzzle
The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of
carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010.
That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there
by humanity since 1750. James Hansen (NASA)
the five-year mean global temperature has been
flat for a decade
The Economist, 2013
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Projected US temperature changes are substantial
even for optimistic emissions scenarios
From U.S. Global Change Research
Program National Climate Assessment and
Development Advisory Committee Draft Climate
Assessment Report (2013).
Temperature is relative to the 1901-1960
average. (USGCRP 2013, p. 20)

• A2 scenario high population growth, low
  economic growth, slower technology improvements
  and diffusion, and other factors that contribute
  to high emissions and lower adaptive capacity
• B1 scenario lower population growth, higher
  economic development, a shift to low-emitting
  efficient energy technologies that are diffused
  rapidly around the world through free trade, and
  other conditions that reduce the rate and
  magnitude of changes in climate averages and
  extremes as well as increased capacity for
  adaptation.

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Undesirable impacts are expected as temperature
increases across a range of settings
IPPC 2007