Title: Marital Trends Affecting Inequality over Time
1Marital Trends Affecting Inequality over Time
- Christy Spivey (SIUE)
- cspivey_at_siue.edu
- and
- Ahsanuzzaman (Virginia Tech)
2Newsweek, June 2006 Rethinking the Marriage
Crunch
3Newsweek, June 2006 Rethinking the Marriage
Crunch
- Twenty Years Ago
- A single 30 year-old woman had a 20 chance of
marrying, and that dropped to 5 by age 35 and
2.6 by age 40 (Bennett, Bloom, Craig) - Now
- 90 of baby boomers will marry at some time
(Steven Martin, UMd) - A single 40 year-old woman has greater than a 41
chance of marrying
4Newsweek, June 2006 Rethinking the Marriage
Crunch
- Women werent remaining unmarried because
marriage was less appealing, but because it was
becoming more appealing to wait. Steven
Martin, UMd - Breakdown of 50s cookie cutter life course,
birth control, technology advancements allowed
less household specialization - Mens attitudes about marriage have changed?
5Three Trends Affecting Inequality
- Are the more educated now more likely to get
married? - Are the more educated now more likely to marry
someone like themselves (assortative mating)? - Do the more educated have better marital
quality and thus stay married longer?
6 of Adults who are College-Educated and Married
7Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
- Marriage can confer economic, child-rearing
advantages, as well as the opportunity to take
advantage of economies of scale, production of
household public goods, specialization, risk
sharing, joint consumption - Just another reason the less-educated might lose
in a globalized economy.
8Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
- We use U.S. Census (1960-2000) and American
Community Survey (2006) data - We consider all household heads and any spouse
who are not currently enrolled in school - We estimate probit equations for ever being
married and multinomial logit equations for the
various marital status categories
9Education and the Likelihood of Marriage Probit
Results
- In 1960, everyone was less likely to have ever
been married, compared to those with less than a
high school degree - High school grads and those with some college are
now more likely to have ever been married, but
this is not the case for college graduates.
Similar results hold by gender. - However, while college graduates are still less
likely to have ever been married, the magnitude
of the effect has shrunk over time
10Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
11Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
12Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
Multinomial Logit Results
- Everyone is now more likely to be currently
married, compared to those with less than a high
school degree. - Only college grads are still more likely to be
single, compared to those with less than a high
school degree. However, they are much less
likely to be separated, divorced, or widowed.
13Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
14Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
15Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
16Education and the Likelihood of Marriage
17Assortative Mating
- Whether assortative mating is positive or
negative is an empirical question and depends
upon the source of the gains from marriage,
preferences, and supply and demand - Negative assortative mating might occur when
gains to marriage arise through specialization,
but positive might occur if gains occur through
production of household public goods (Lam, 1998).
As the role of specialization has declined,
might expect positive assortative mating over
time.
18Assortative Mating Over Time
- Increased supply of educated women harder to
find an equally educated husband, or will
financial freedom expand options (and result in a
shifting balance of power within the household)? - Have preferences/incentives for men to choose an
educated spouse increased? - Quite a few studies, but not all agree that
educational homogamy has increased since the
1960s - Others (Mare, 1991) have argued that as the time
between leaving school and marriage has
increased, educational homogamy would decrease.
19Assortative Mating Over Time
- Hou and Myles, 2007, Statistics Canada working
paper - The tendency of like to marry like has
unambiguously risen since 1970s in both US and
Canada - The result of declining intermarriage at both
ends of the educational spectrum - In the US, the rise in homogamy was partially
offset by an increased tendency over time for
women to marry down the educational hierarchy
20Assortative Mating
- We calculate absolute rates of homogamy for
existing marriages for all adults - This stock measure reflects the combined effects
of assortative mating into first marriage,
divorce, entry into additional marriages, and any
tendency for spouses to grow alike in educational
attainment after marriage
21Assortative Mating
- Since 1970, the percentage of households
resembling each other in terms of educational
status has increased - 1960 49.09
- 1970 47.08
- 1980 48
- 1990 48.54
- 2000 50.59
- 2006 52.05
- Not an immediately obvious trend since there is
more variation in educational attainment now
22Assortative Mating
- This overall trend obscures more subtle trends by
educational category - The of households in which both spouses have
less than a high school degree decreases from
1960 to 2006. - The of households in which both spouses have a
high school degree increases and then decreases
again. - The of households in which both spouses have
more than a high school degree increases over
time.
23Assortative Mating 1960
24Assortative Mating 2006
25Assortative Mating 1970
26Assortative Mating 1980
27Assortative Mating 1990
28Assortative Mating 2000
29Education and Length of Marriage
- If more educated have better quality match and
stay married longer, implications go beyond
current inequality - If loving, two-parent households are more common
among the more educated, this confers additional
benefits to their children, enhancing future
inequality.
30Education and Length of Marriage
- We use the NLSY79 panel data set that has some
marital quality measures for women starting in
1992 - Frequency of Arguments about chores and
responsibilities, etc. - Often (1), Sometimes (2), Hardly ever (3), or
Never (4)? - Frequency tell each other about day, etc.
- Almost Every Day (1), Once or Twice a Week (2),
Once or Twice a Month (3), Less Than Once a Month
(4) - DEGREE OF HAPPINESS WITH MARRIAGE/RELATIONSHIP
Would you say that your (relationship/marriage)
is... - Very happy (1), Fairly happy (2), Not too happy
(3) -
-
-
-
31Education and Length of Marriage
32Education and Length of Marriage
33Education and Length of Marriage
34Education and Length of Marriage
35Inequality
- Wed like to know how these three trends affect
inequality over time. - We construct a data set using the Census, along
with the Current Population Survey to fill in the
missing years from 1960-2006.
36Inequality
37Inequality
38Inequality
- Problems
- Reverse causation, inequality affects who and
when we marry? - Need to control for changes in the distribution
of education over time - Need a separate measure for the likelihood of
ever being married, and the likelihood of divorce
39Conclusions
- The most educated are not more likely to have
ever been married - However, they may be more likely to be married,
which reflects other trends such as longer
marriages - Absolute assortative mating with respect to
education is also on the rise and is positively
associated with inequality