HIGHLIGHTS FROM NAME

1
HIGHLIGHTS FROM NAME
NAME An internationally coordinated, joint
CLIVAR-GEWEX process study aimed at improving
warm season precipitation forecasts over North
America.
Wayne Higgins and the NAME SWG CPPA PI
Meeting 16 August 2006
2
OUTLINE

• NAME Program
• NAME 2004 Field Campaign
• Scientific Results
• NAME Modeling Activities
• Milestones (through 2009)
• Summary

3
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
HYPOTHESIS The NAMS provides a physical basis
for determining the degree of predictability of
warm season precipitation over the region.

• OBJECTIVES
• Better understanding and
• simulation of
• warm season convective
• processes in complex terrain
• (TIER I)
• intraseasonal variability of
• the monsoon (TIER II)
• response to oceanic and
• continental boundary
• conditions (TIER III)
• monsoon evolution and

Low-level (925 mb) winds and observed
precipitation
YEAR (2000) 00 01 02 03 04 05
06 07 08 Planning -------------- Preparat
ions --------------- Data
Collection - - - - - -
-------- Principal Research
--------------------------------- Data
Management ----------------------
-------------------

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WHAT WAS THE NAME 2004 FIELD CAMPAIGN?

• The NAME 2004 Field Campaign was an unprecedented
  opportunity to gather extensive atmospheric,
  oceanic, and land-surface observations in the
  core region of the North American Monsoon over
  NW Mexico, SW United States, and adjacent oceanic
  areas.

5
NAME ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• Field Program and Datasets
• NAME 2004 Field Experiment.
• NAME 2004 Data Archive (266 datasets) and Field
  Catalog (0.5M files) complete
• NAME Value Added Products (e.g. precipitation and
  upper-air composite datasets
  multi-sensor SST analyses and land surface
  datasets)
• Data Access http//www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/n
  ame/
• Diagnostic and Modeling Studies
• Analysis of NAME 2004 field observations
• Impact of NAME 2004 data on NCEP operational
  analyses.
• Assessments of global regional model
  simulations of the 2004 monsoon (NAMAP2).
• Relative influence of oceanic land surface
  bcs (NAME Tier 3)
• Meetings
• NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 Meeting (Mexico
  City, MX)
• NAME SWG 7.5 Meeting (State College PA)
• NAME SWG 8 Meeting / CPPA PI Meeting (Tucson, AZ)

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NAME PUBLICATIONS DOCUMENTATION

Journal Gutzler, D. S, H.-K. Kim, R. W. Higgins,
et al., 2005 The North American Monsoon Model
Assessment Project (NAMAP) Integrating numerical
modeling into a field-based process study. Bull.
Amer. Met. Soc (Oct 05) Higgins, R. W. and the
NAME SWG, 2006 The NAME 2004 Field campaign and
Modeling Strategy. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc (Jan
06) Special Issue of Journal of Climate on NAME
22 papers on NAME 04 NAME diagnostic and
modeling studies (late 2006)
Reports Report to the Nation on the North
American Monsoon SWG 7 Meeting Report (Apr
2005) SWG 7.5 Meeting Report (Dec 2005) NAME
Science and Implementation Plan NAME Modeling and
Data Assimilation White Paper

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NAME 2004 SCIENCE QUESTIONS

• How are low-level circulations along the Gulf of
  California / west slopes of the
• Sierra Madre Occidental related to the
  diurnal cycle of moisture and convection?
• (low-level circulation)
• 2. What is the relationship between moisture
  transport and rainfall variability
• (e.g. forcing of surge events onset of
  monsoon details)?
  
• (moisture transport and budget)
• 3. What is the typical life cycle of diurnal
  convective rainfall? Where along the western
  slope
• of the SMO is convective development
  preferred?
• (diurnal cycle)
• These form a basis for the Climate Issues
• addressed by NAME modeling activities
• focused on seasonal-to-interannual prediction

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P-3 Missions
NAME IOPs, P-3 Missions
? Moisture Flux
? Surge Genesis
? LLJ
July
? Sea Breeze/Moisture Flux
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
1
10
20
30
IOPs
Monsoon Onset
August
TC, Gulf Surge
Normal Monsoon
?
?
Suppressed Monsoon
Moisture Flux, Tropical Jet, MCS
Tropical Wave, MCS
1
10
20
Inverted Trough, MCS, Gulf Surge
Tropical Wave, Backdoor Cold Front
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NAME 2004 Scientific Results
Assessment based on analysis of NAME field
observations
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The diurnal heating cycle and monsoon
precipitation
Assessment based on analysis of NAME field
observations
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MEAN DIURNAL CYCLE
Daytime heating leads to afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms that fire along the
SMO, shift to the west, and gradually die off
during the night. Local thermal contrasts (e.g.
between land sea or between mountains plains)
initiate propagating convective systems (lines or
complexes) that tend to last well into the night
Convective systems sometimes develop during the
night in regions affected by low-level jets (e.g.
western slopes of SMO Great Plains).
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MEAN DIURNAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE
(28oN)
(Janowiak et al. 2006)
Rainfall begins along the west slopes of the SMO
and then propagates both westward (primarily) and
eastward (secondarily). CMORPH (CPC Morphing
Technique) Uses IR data along with passive
microwave data to create global rainfall analyses
(60N-60S) at high spatial and temporal
resolution.
13
MEAN WINDS, DIVERGENCE AND RH DURING NAME 2004 (1
JULY -15 AUGUST)
(Johnson et al. 2006)
b
d
a
c
deep subsidence
divergence
convergence
shallow moist layer
a
b
c
d
Vertical cross section perpendicular to GOC of,
wind in the plane of the section, divergence and
RH
Vertical cross section along GOC of wind in the
plane of the section, potential temperature
and RH

• The daily heating cycle rectifies to strong
  convergence (divergence) above the crest of the
  SMO (aloft near 200 hPa).
• There is a shallow moist layer topped by a local
  max in SE flow and deep layer subsidence.

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LOW-LEVEL JET DURING NAME 2004
(Johnson et al. 2006)
Puerto Peñasco 7 July 15 August 2004 Average
Winds
Puerto Peñasco
8 m s-1 at 6 am LT 500 m
(Johnson et al. 2006)

• The local maximum in SE flow is associated with
  a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ), which is
  strongest in the northern GOC near 0600 LST and
  weakens towards the south.
• ISS data shows the LLJ was present on 66 of the
  days at this site (Johnson et al. 2006).

15
LAND-SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DURING NAME 2004
(Johnson et al. 2006)
Los Mochis 7 July 15 August 2004 Diurnal Cycle
of Cross-Gulf Winds and RH
Los Mochis

• The low-level flow is typified by an afternoon
  sea breeze (westerly flow) nocturnal
  land-breeze (southeasterly flow). Return flows
  are near 600 and 150 hPa.
• The boundary layer dries out in the afternoon
  due to surface heating, but moistens during the
  night from surface evaporation and offshore flow
  bringing moisture westward from the SMO.

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RADAR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS
GUASAVE
S-Pol
CABO SAN LUCAS
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DISTURBED -vs- UNDISTURBED DAYS (Lang et al. 2006)
DISTURBED DAYS (14)
UNDISTURBED DAYS (29)
Two prominent convective regimes with large
diurnal components undisturbed days
convection forms over high terrain and moves
westward at 7 m s-1, large CIN disturbed
days convection is longer-lived, extends
farther west but also at 7 m s-1,
is
more organized refiring along sea-breeze
front TEWs, TCs, surges, MCSs
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DISTURBED -vs- UNDISTURBED DAYS (Lang et al. 2006)
DISTURBED DAYS (14)
UNDISTURBED DAYS (29)
undisturbed days convection fires
simultaneously along SMO in mid-afternoon
disturbed days convection fires from S to N
along SMO at 10 m s-1 CIN is reduced

19

• The NERN, consists of 87 event logging raingauges
  arranged in 6 major W-E transects traversing the
  SMO

Most frequent precipitation occurs along upper
west slopes of SMO with decreasing frequency at
lower elevations along coast, northward and
eastward Lagging of diurnal cycle of intensity
with lower elevation Increased intensity in
nocturnal signal in 0-500 m el. band
light rain days R lt 25.4 mm
by elevation band
3-4 hours
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Conceptual Model of Monsoon Storm Development
(Gochis et al. 2006)

• Frequent, light precip. events over high
  terrain are from comparatively shallow clouds
  with relatively warm tops
• Less frequent initiation of organized deep
  convection (lines, clusters) with colder cloud
  tops
• Consistent with this, Shi et al (06) showed
  that IR-based products are missing many
  shallow-warm events while overestimating
  frequency and extent of deep-heavy events.

21
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER / OCEAN
CHARACTERISTICS DURING NAME 2004

• Cruises of the R/V Altair revealed new
  insight into the characteristics of the Marine
  Boundary Layer (MBL) over the GOC (Zuidema et al.
  2006).

• Strong cold excursions of air temperature are
  associated with deep convective outflows.
• Large warm excursions of SST are associated with
  heating of the surface waters on clear afternoons
  with light winds (diurnal warm layer).

22
ROLE OF THE LAND SURFACE DURING NAME 2004

• Evolution of vegetation greenness (Watts et al.
  2006)
• Strong seasonal cycle of regional vegetation in
  response to monsoon precipitation
• Leaf out proceeds from S to N and from high
  elevation to low elevation
• Changes in foliage lead to changes in surface
  fluxes of radiation, heat, and moisture, hence
  huge changes in the diurnal cycle

June 2004
July 2004
August 2004
NDVI Data for the land surface from the
SPOT-VEGETATION Sensor

• On seasonal and interannual timescales the
  antecedent land
• surface conditions across southwestern NA
  affect the timing of
• monsoon onset by modulating the land-sea
  thermal contrast
• (Zhu et al. 2006)

23
Tropical cyclone- gulf
surge-precipitation relationships
Assessment based on analysis of NAME field
observations
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MONSOON ONSET
DURING NAME 2004

• Monsoon onset in NW Mexico and the southwestern
  U.S. was coincident with a strong surge around
  12-13 July induced by tropical storm Blas.
• Analyses of atmospheric soundings and profilers
  (Johnson et al. 2006) and shipboard measurements
  (Zuidema et al. 2006) indicate that onset was
  associated with strong southeasterly flow and the
  advection of warm water into the Gulf of
  California (GOC).

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MONSOON ONSET
DURING NAME 2004

• The 2004 NAM season was characterized by a
  climatologically late start (about 10 days) and
  early retreat (late July) and a poorly developed
  subtropical ridge (Douglas and Englehart 2006).
• Monsoon onset in NW Mexico and the southwestern
  U.S. was coincident with a strong surge around
  12-13 July induced by tropical storm Blas.
• Analyses of atmospheric soundings and profilers
  (Johnson et al. 2006) and shipboard measurements
  (Zuidema et al. 2006) indicate that onset was
  associated with strong southeasterly flow and the
  advection of warm water into the Gulf of
  California (GOC).

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MONSOON ONSET
DURING NAME 2004
Precipitation (mm) 12 July 2004
Precipitation (mm) 13 July 2004
Precipitation (mm) 14 July 2004
Puerto Peñasco
RV Altair
MCS
T.S. BLAS
SE flow
T increase
Infrared Satellite Loop 13 July 2004
Profiler Winds at Puerto Peñasco
(starting at 0000 UTC on 13 July 2004 )
Upper Oceanic 20-m Layer Temperature (RV Altair
at mouth of GOC)
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MONSOON ONSET
DURING NAME 2004
Observed wind speeds for NAME IOP 2 were
strongest over the northern gulf (up to 20 m
s-1). There was rapid propagation of the
leading edge (20 m s-1) and surface pressure
rises ( 3.5 hPa) over 10 hr.
Profiler Winds at Puerto Peñasco
(starting at 0000 UTC on 13 July 2004 )
L
?
Yuma
?
Puerto Penasco
SURGE
Heat Low
?
MAZATLAN
GUST FRONTS
TROPICAL STORM BLAS
3.5-hPa rise
(Johnson et al. 2006)
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TROPICAL CYCLONES
GULF SURGES DURING NAME 2004 (Johnson et al.
2006)
southerly
northerly
Tropical cyclones

• Episodic increases in wind speed along the GOC
  linked to Gulf surges and increases in the N-S
  pressure gradient (pressure rises in the south
  precede those in the north).
• Cases in which the southerly flow extends to the
  south of the GoC are typically linked to TCs to
  the south. Higgins et al (2004) found that
  roughly half of all GOC surges are TC related
  (1977-2001).
• Surges connected to the northern half of the GoC
  are generally attributed to downdraft outflows
  from MCSs along SMO.

29
Number () of Yuma Surges by Category(based on
July-August 1977-2001)
Higgins and Shi (2004)
30
Schematic of the 700-hPa Circulation (Heights and
Winds) for Wet and Dry Moisture Surges Keyed to
Yuma, AZ

• Roughly 50 of gulf surges are not associated
  with enhanced precipitation in AZ/NM. WHY?
• A It depends on the relative location of the
  upper-level monsoon anticyclone at the time of
  the gulf surge.
• Ridge axis east ? wetter-than-normal in
  AZNM.
• Ridge axis west? drier-than-normal in
  AZNM.

Wet
Dry
Higgins et al. (2003)
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Synoptic Variability
Assessment based on analysis of NAME field
observations
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SYNOPTIC VARIABILITY DURING
NAME 2004 (Douglas and Englehart 2006)

• Synoptic Features (NAME 2004 vs JJAS
  Climatology (1967-2001)
• Cold Front Days 200 of normal
• Inverted Trough Days 70 of normal
• Cutoff Low Days 90 of normal
• Open Trough Days 170 of normal
• Average fraction of monsoon rainfall due to
  Synoptic Features
• Cold Fronts 5-10 (NE Mexico)
• Inverted Troughs 20-25
• Tropical Cyclones 5-10 (N Mexico) 20-40
  (SW Mexico) 60 (Cabo San Lucas)
• Relative decrease of inverted troughs and
  increase of open (westerly) troughs and cold
  fronts was implicated in the drier-than-normal
  conditions in Arizona and northern Sonora.

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NAME STRATEGY TO IMPROVE CLIMATE
FORECASTS

•  
• Emphasizes the linkage between the modeling, data
  assimilation and field components of the NAME
  program.
• A driving hypothesis is that we must develop
  proper simulations of the relatively small
  (spatial and temporal) scale climate variability,
  especially the diurnal cycle, in the core monsoon
  region.
• Details in a white paper on the NAME webpage.

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation
A Strategic Overview
NAME Science Working Group
June 2002

http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name
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ELEMENTS OF NAME
MODELING STRATEGY

• Data Impact Studies
• NAME 2004 data impact in global and regional
  analyses
• Climate Model Improvements
• NAMAP Simulations of 1990 monsoon
• NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team
• NAMAP2 Simulations of 2004 monsoon
• Diurnal Cycle Experiments (NASA/GFDL/NCEP)
• Assessments of the next generation NCEP CFS/GFS
• Links to NOAA Climate Test Bed
• Climate Forecast Products and Applications
• Hydrometeorology Working Group
• North American Monsoon and Society

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IMPACT OF NAME 2004
UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS
Vertically integrated meridional moisture flux
qv (JJA 2004)
GDAS (soundings) global analysis
R-CDAS (soundings) regional analysis
160 kg/(ms)
R-CDAS ( NO soundings) regional analysis
EDAS (soundings) regional analysis
220 kg/(ms)

• The NAME 2004 enhanced soundings had a
  significant and beneficial influence on NCEP
  operational analyses, particularly over the core
  monsoon area and in regions where the
  uncertainties were largest (Mo et al. 2006)..

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NAMAP AND METRICS FOR MODEL DEVELOPMENT

• NAME Model Assessment Project (NAMAP) results
  (Gutzler et al. 2005)

Total Monthly Precip cm

• All models simulate a summer precip maximum but
  global models show delays in monsoon onset
  (August instead of July).
• Uncertainties in the simulated diurnal cycle of
  precip are related to differences in both
  afternoon nocturnal convection.

Global Models
Obs

• Precipitation-related metrics
• Simulation of monsoon onset to within one week
  of observations
• Simulation of the mean diurnal cycle in the core
  region to within 20

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NAMAP2 SIMULATIONS OF THE 2004
MONSOON

• Link to model development research
• Special focus on the diurnal cycle
  (precipitation)
• Takes advantage of NAME 2004 enhanced
  observations
• Protocols developed
• A new 3-hrly multi-platform merged
• SST analysis on a 0.25 grid for the
• NAME domain (Wang and Xie 2006)
• Global and regional simulations completed
• Analysis underway at UNM and NCEP

38
AGCM Diurnal Cycle Experiments
GFDL NCEP NASA NARR

• In general the AGCMs are capable of capturing
  the phase of the diurnal cycle of precipitation
  in the core monsoon region, but have difficulty
  simulating the amplitude (Lee et al. 2006).

39
AGCM Resolution Experiments (Mo et al. 2004)
T126L28 T62L28

• In long-term (prescribed SST) simulations the
  T126 version of the GFS simulates precipitation
  amounts better in the NAME core monsoon region
  than the T62 version throughout the annual cycle,
  including the monsoon season.

40
Simulations of Monsoon Precipitation
Characteristics
Percentage of rainfall occurrence by amount for
NAME Tier 1 (105-115oW, 20-35oN).

• In general NCEP global and regional models
  OVERforecast light and moderate rain events and
  UNDERforecast heavy rain events over NAME Tier 1
  (Janowiak et al. 2006).

Research quality satellite IR passive
microwave estimates of precipitation.
41
AGCM Soil Moisture Experiments
Schemm, et al (2004)
850-hPa wind 200-hPa streamlines (July-September)
Analyzed Soil Moisture
Reanalysis 2
Climatological Soil Moisture
EXPERIMENT Ensembles of 10 / 6 month simulations
(May-Oct 1979-2000) with climatological (center)
and analyzed (right) soil moisture ICs using
NCEP/GFS May ICs. CONCLUSIONThe location of
the monsoon anticyclone is sensitive to
initialized soil moisture.
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Future Some Multi-Scale Issues
to Address in Models

• Weak coupling between the diurnal cycle,
  propagating convection and large-scale
  circulation / waves
• Improper representation of coastal effects (e.g.
  sea/land breeze effects) on diurnal cycle of
  precipitation
• Ineffective generation of precipitating systems
  over complex terrain (e.g. frequency intensity)
  
• Absence / weakness of mesoscale systems (e.g.
  convective parameterizations are scale
  separated)
• Missing effects of transients (e.g. easterly
  waves synoptic-scale waves) on organized
  convection
• Difficulties with regime transitions (e.g. onset
  / demise of MJO) and with the relative influences
  of the MJO and ENSO on precipitating convective
  regimes.

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The NOAA Climate Test Bed Vision, Mission,
Strategy

• Vision
• To significantly increase the accuracy,
  reliability, and number of NOAAs operational
  climate forecast products for a diverse user
  community.
• Mission
• To accelerate the transition of scientific
  advances from the climate research community to
  improved NOAA climate forecast products and
  services.
• Note The notions of accuracy, reliability,
  and number of climate forecast products
  correspond to CTBs 4 programmatic priorities
• 1) Climate Forecast System Improvements
• 2) Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System
• 3) Climate Reanalysis
• 4) Climate Forecast Products for Decision
  Support

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NAME MILESTONES

• FY04 Implement NAME 2004 Field Experiment.
• FY05 - Evaluate impact of data from NAME 2004 on
  operational analyses.
• FY06 - Assess global and regional model
  simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon
  (NAMAP2).
• FY07 - Evaluate impact of changes in model
  parameterization schemes (NAME CPT).
• FY08 - Measure improvements in model simulations
  of monsoon onset and variability.
• FY08 Quantify the relative influence of oceanic
  and land surface boundary conditions on
  simulations of the NAME 2004 monsoon (NAME Tier
  3)
• FY09 - Implement recommended changes to
  operational climate prediction systems to improve
  the skill of warm season precipitation forecasts
  (End-to-End Forecast System).

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SUMMARY

•  
• NAME 2004 was a major field campaign during JJAS
  2004
• NAME 2004 data and field catalog are fully
  available
• http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name/catalog/
• NAME diagnostic and modeling studies will
  continue for the next several years and will help
  motivate needs for sustained observations and
  additional process studies.
• NAME will deliver
• Observing system design for monitoring and
  predicting the North American monsoon
• More comprehensive understanding of North
  American summer climate variability and
  predictability
• Strengthened scientific collaboration across
  Pan-America
• Measurably improved climate models that predict
  North American summer precipitation
  months to seasons in advance.
•