U'S' EPA MARKAL 9R: Overview and Illustrative Application

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U.S. EPA MARKAL 9ROverview and Illustrative
Application
Dan Loughlin, Ph.D. Air Pollution Prevention and
Control Division 5-15-08
Illustrative Results
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Team and Contact Information
EPA Postdoc o ORISE Postdoc
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U.S. EPA MARKAL 9R

• Type Bottom-up mixed-integer linear programming
• Coverage U.S. energy system
• Spatial resolution 9 U.S. Census Divisions
• Modeling horizon 2000 to 2050 in 5-yr increments
• Sectors
• Electricity production
• Transportation
• Industrial
• Residential
• Commercial
• Resource supply
• Pollutants CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10
• Outputs technology penetrations, fuel use,
  emissions
• marginal costs for fuels, technologies and
  emissions

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Energy System Technologies
Primary Energy
End-Use Demands
Processing and Conversion of Energy Carriers
Impacts Contribution to anthropogenic emissions
CO2 94 NOx 95 SO2 89 CO 95 Hg
87 Environmental Concerns Climate
Change Ozone Fine PM Acid deposition Toxics,
Mercury Greenhouse gases Water use pollution
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U.S. EPA MARKAL 9-Region Database
End-Use Energy Demands
Sectors Refineries Chemical Food Primary
metals Minerals Pulp and paper Transportation
equip. Non-manufacturing Other
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U.S. EPA MARKAL 9-Region Database
Technology Detail Light Duty Vehicles
Transportation
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U.S. EPA MARKAL 9-Region Database
Technology Detail Electricity Production
Electricity
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Technological Detail

• Standard
• Availability (Year)
• Lifetime
• Capital Cost
• Operating Costs
• Fixed
• Variable (non-fuel)
• Efficiency
• Fuel Inputs
• Emissions Factors

• Optional
• Capacity Factor
• Growth Limit
• Learning Rate
• Discount Rate
• Time of Day Operation
• Market Penetration Constraints
• Capacity Increment

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Constraints / Policy Variables

• System, sectoral and/or regional limits on
• Criteria pollutants (NOx, SO2, PM10)
• CO2
• Fuel supplies
• Technology penetration
• Limiting
• Forcing
• Incentives
• Taxes on fuels or emissions
• Subsidies on fuels or technologies
• Other
• Renewable portfolio or efficiency standards

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A Scenario of the Future

• Assumptions
• Optimistic assumptions about wind, solar,
  nuclear
• Policies/Regulations
• Energy Independence Security Act
• CAFE
• Biofuels limits
• Air Quality
• Light duty emissions standards
• Heavy duty rules / ultra low sulfur diesel
• CAIR / CAMR / CAVR

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A Scenario of the Future
Illustrative Results
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A Scenario of the Future
Illustrative Results
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A Scenario of the Future
Illustrative Results
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A Scenario of the Future
Illustrative Results
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Regional-Scale Output
1
9
2
4
3
8
5
6
7
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Regional Electricity Production
Illustrative Results
1
9
2
4
3
8
5
6
7
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Regional Light Duty Vehicle Mix
Illustrative Results
1
9
2
4
3
8
5
6
7
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Regional CO2 Emissions
Illustrative Results
1
9
2
4
3
8
5
6
7
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Regional NOx Emissions
Illustrative Results
1
9
2
4
3
8
5
6
7
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Regional Biofuel Inputs
Illustrative Results
1
9
2
4
3
8
5
6
7
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Modeling a Hypothetical GHG Policy
Illustrative Results
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Two Hypothetical Scenarios
S1. Optimistic Renewables
Light Duty Vehicles
Electricity
NOx Emissions
S2. Optimistic CCS H2-FCVs
Light Duty Vehicles
Electricity
Industry
Transport
Electricity
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Types of questions that can be addressed with
U.S. EPA MARKAL 9R

• How can I achieve emission targets
  cost-effectively? Optimization
• What are the resulting impacts on criteria
  pollutant emissions and air quality? Linkage to
  SMOKE/CMAQ
• How do additional criteria pollutant constraints
  affect GHG emissions (and vice versa)? Scenario
  analysis
• What are the technologies that are critical in
  meeting emission constraints? Monte Carlo MGA
• How do key outputs change with input assumptions?
  Sensitivity analysis
• Given uncertainties about the future, what should
  I do in the short term? Stochastic optimization

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Strengths

• Modeling framework features
• Alternative generation
• Endogenous technological learning
• Lumpy investment
• Elastic demands
• Stochastic optimization (2-stage decision
  making)
• Runs on desktop PC
• U.S. EPA 9R
• Sub-U.S. regionalization
• Database publically available peer reviewed
• (release expected in summer 08)
• Runtime of lt 1hr
• Linkage to SMOKE

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Limitations

• Scope
• U.S. only
• Limited consideration of sub-regional policies
• Limited consideration of international
  interactions
• Currently does not explicitly represent
  allowance allocation and trading
• Type of Model
• Does not capture CGE model information such as
• Firm decisions on labor vs. capital
• Household disposable income expenditures
• GDP impacts
• Optimization, not simulation

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Potential Improvements

• U.S. EPA MARKAL 9R
• Additional regional breakouts
• California
• Split Mountain region
• Demand elasticities
• International CO2 offset cost curves
• Improved time slice representations
• Industrial sector detail
• Technology options
• Criteria GHG emission controls
• Non-CO2 GHGs
• MARKAL Framework
• representation of permits
• trading, banking, allocation

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Contact

• Team Leads
• Tim Johnson johnson.tim_at_epa.gov
• Carol Shay Lenox shay.carol_at_epa.gov
• ECAI Liaison
• Dan Loughlin loughlin.dan_at_epa.gov