SARS

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Ravaged by SARS The Case of Hong Kong
SARS
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Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong (as
of Sept 11, 2003)
Infected Dead
Overall 1,755 299
Medical Staff 386 6
Community 1,369 293
Of which Amoy Gardens 321 gt40
SARS
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Daily New Number of SARS Cases (up to June 11,
2003)
SARS
Source HKSAR Government press releases.
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Daily New Number of SARS Cases Medical Staff
(up to June 11, 2003)
SARS
Source HKSAR Government press releases.
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Daily New Number of SARS Cases Community Excl.
Amoy Gardens (up to June 11, 2003)
Suspension of classes
Quarantine contacts of suspected patients
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Quarantine contacts of confirmed patients
Source HKSAR Government press releases.
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Daily New Number of SARS Cases Amoy Gardens (up
to June 11, 2003)
Residents of Block E were being moved into
holiday villages
SARS
Source HKSAR Government press releases.
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Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong (as
of Sept 11, 2003)
All deaths With chronic disease history No chronic disease history
Overall 299 201 98
Male 168 108 60
Female 129 91 38
Unknown 2 2 0
Aged 0-64 108 43 65
Aged 65 191 158 33
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Total Mortality Rate due to SARS (up to June 11,
2003)
Mortality Rate among Discharged Deaths
Mortality Rate among All cases
SARS
Source HKSAR Government press releases.
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Total Mortality Rate due to SARS by Age Groups
(as on Sept 1, 2003)
299 deaths as at 1pm, Sept 1 Assumption the age
distribution of all cases is the same as that
reported on Jun 6
SARS
Source Clinical Trials Centre, The University of
Hong Kong
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Case Fatality Rate by Gender (as on Sept 1, 2003)
SARS
Source Clinical Trials Centre, The University of
Hong Kong.
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Case Fatality Rate by Age Groups (as on Sept 1,
2003)
SARS
Source Clinical Trials Centre, The University of
Hong Kong.
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SARS came at a bad time
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Real GDP Growth -5.0 3.4 10.2 0.6 2.3
Nominal GDP Growth -4.8 -2.6 3.4 -0.7 -0.6
Consumer Price Deflation 2.9 -4.0 -3.8 -1.6 -3.0
Unemployment Rate 5.9 6.3 4.4 6.2 7.2
Property Price Index (Domestic) 117.1 100.0 89.6 78.7 69.8
Budget Deficit (HKbn) -23.2 10.0 -7.8 -63.3 -61.7
Fiscal Reserves (HKbn) 434.3 444.3 430.6 372.5 311.4
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Economic Fallout
SARS is an exogenous NEGATIVE demand shock to the
aggregate demand.
Exports of travel services
Imports of travel services
Investment Consumption Spending
Exports of goods Imports of goods
Output Prices
Unemployment Budget deficit

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SARS
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Losses from SARS Large Initial Estimates
Hong Kong Federation of Restaurant and Related
Trades Mid April 50 restaurants closed
temporarily Hong Kong Retail Management
Association Early April Retail sales fell by
50 Cathay Pacific Airways Mid April
Estimated loss per day is US3mn Cancellation
of flights rose from 10 in late-March to over
40 Cinema Association Mid April Revenue in
March dropped by 47
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Gross Domestic Product (Year-on-year percentage
changes)
2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Private consumption expenditure -0.1 -2.2 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -2.2
Government consumption expenditure 2.3 3.0 3.5 0.8 1.3 0.6
Gross domestic fixed capital formation -11.8 -0.2 -4.3 -0.7 3.5 -5.3
Exports of goods -2.4 5.9 11.5 18.4 19.1 14.3
Imports of goods -4.0 6.0 10.8 18.2 18.8 10.9
Exports of services 6.0 7.7 13.9 18.1 12.6 -14.7
Imports of services -0.7 -3.8 2.0 3.4 -3.9 -19.6
Gross Domestic Product -0.6 0.8 3.4 5.1 4.5 -0.5
GDP at current market prices (bn) 298 306 325 331 298 288
GDP at 2000 market prices (bn) 310 318 343 353 324 316
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Retail Sales
Year 2003 Total Retail Sales Value Total Retail Sales Value Unit Price Index Volume Index
Year 2003 HK Mn Year-on-year change Year-on-year change Year-on-year change
Jan 17,484 9.87 -1.71 11.76
Feb 12,680 -12.56 -1.46 -11.23
Mar 14,171 -6.06 -2.43 -3.73
Apr 12,723 -15.15 -3.28 -12.24
May 13,780 -11.13 -3.95 -7.45
Jun 13,600 -6.46 -3.31 -3.31
Jul 14,602 -2.69 -2.21 -0.49
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Unemployment and Under-employment
3-Month Average Ending On (Year 2003) Unemployment Unemployment Under-employment Under-employment
3-Month Average Ending On (Year 2003) Person (000) Rate (S.A) Person (000) Rate
Jan 245.6 7.2 107.8 3.1
Feb 255.9 7.4 101.2 2.9
Mar 259.8 7.5 100.7 2.9
Apr 273.7 7.8 112.7 3.2
May 287.3 8.3 135.0 3.8
Jun 300.0 8.6 151.0 4.3
Jul 309.0 8.7 149.0 4.2
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Composite Consumer Price Index
Year 2003 Index Year-on-year change
Jan 93.7 -1.7
Feb 93.5 -2.1
Mar 93.7 -2.1
Apr 93.7 -1.8
May 92.7 -2.5
Jun 92.0 -3.1
Jul 91.1 -4.0
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Cross-Border Truck Traffic (Mar 1, 2003 Sept 8,
2003)
Lok Ma Chau
Inbound
Outbound
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Number of Air Passenger Arrival and Departure
(Mar 1, 2003 Jun 30, 2003)
Total Departure
Total Arrival
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Aircraft Movement at the Hong Kong Airport (Mar
1, 2003 Aug 31, 2003)
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Hong Kong Visitor Arrivals (2002 August 2003
July)
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Hotel Occupancy Rate (2003 January 2003 July)
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Stock Price of Cathay Pacific (Mar 1, 2001 Jul
31, 2003)
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Risk Premium of Hong Kong Dollar (Mar 1, 2002
Jul 31, 2003)
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Note Risk Premium (1-Year Forward Spot) ?
10,000 Source Datastream.
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Stock Market Indices
Index Mar 12-Mar 31 Mar 12-Apr 30 Mar 12-May 30 Mar 12-Jun 30 Mar 12-Jul 31
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index -2.71 -1.78 6.90 7.91 14.20
Hong Kong HS Finance -2.63 0.95 9.51 8.91 12.90
Hong Kong HS Utility 0.15 -1.27 2.15 2.51 2.93
Hong Kong HS Property -4.68 -6.47 2.50 2.50 14.88
Hong Kong HS Commercial and Industrial -2.77 -3.31 6.46 9.69 17.95
China Shanghai A 2.45 3.25 7.02 0.90 0.26
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HK 11.8b Relief Measures

• Salaries tax rebate 2.3b
• Concessions on rents, rates, water and
• other charges for a quarter
• Temporary jobs and temporary training
• for unemployed workers 430m
• Loan guarantee fund 3.5b
• Disease control 1.5b
• Revival 1b

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Other Relief Packages

• On April 25, the Airport Authority offered a
  relief package worth HK 363m to airlines,
  retailers, caterers and franchisees badly hurt by
  SARS
• 100m worth of reductions for some
• charges
• 263m worth of interest free deferred
• payments

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Contingent Measures

• On May 25, less than 48 hours after the WHO
  lifted its travel advisory on Hong Kong, the
  Airport Authority announced a multi-million
  dollar revitalization package
• Airlines reinstating cancelled flights would
  enjoy a discount on landing charge, depending on
  load factor

Load Factor Discount on landing charge
Below 20 50
21-40 25
41-60 10
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Contingent Measures

• For existing flights, more passengers carried
  (i.e. higher load factor) would result in higher
  discount in landing charge, also up to 50.
• For example, a 10-percentage point increase in
  load factor will result in 10 discount on
  landing charge.

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Main Lessons

• Information dissemination
• Infection control measures
• Environmental hygiene
• Cross-border cooperation

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