Making Climate Science Relevant to Decisionmaking

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Making Climate Science Relevant to Decisionmaking
Richard H. Moss, Ph.D. Climate Change Science
Program Office (Director) and Joint Global
Change Research Institute
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Overview of This Presentation

• Definitions and motivation for CCSP decision
  support
• Key science-related policy issues
• What is the current state of the climate system?
• How are human activities affecting climate?
• How might climate evolve in the future?
• What impacts might we expect from climate change?
• How are climate research and technology
  development supported in the United States?
• CCSP decision support structure and challenges

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Decision Support Definition of Key Terms

• Decision support resources
• Analyses, methods, models/data, operational
  services, and other tools that provide useful
  information to address policy, resource
  management, and other issues
• Policy decisions
• Decisions made in government settings that result
  in laws, regulations, and other public actions
• Adaptive management decisions
• Operational decisions for infrastructure,
  resources, and response mechanisms (e.g., health
  alerts)
• Scenario
• A coherent statement of a potential future
  situation that can serve as an input to more
  detailed analysis or modeling

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Motivation for Decision Support

• The Global Change Research Act (1990) directs
  the USGCRP to produce information readily usable
  by policymakers attempting to formulate effective
  strategies for preventing, mitigating, and
  adapting to the effects of global change, and to
  undertake periodic assessments
• President Bush, citing the NRCs 2001 study (An
  Analysis of Key Questions), called for
  development of decision support resources in June
  2001
• the National Academy of Sciences study also
  recommends, research that couples physical,
  chemical, biological and human systems improved
  capability of integrating scientific knowledge,
  including its uncertainty, into effective
  decision support systems and an ability to
  conduct research at the regional or sectoral
  level that promotes analysis of the response of
  human and natural systems to multiple stresses.
• White House document accompanying the
  Presidents June 11, 2001 Statement on Climate
  Change
• CCRI, which is managed with USGCRP under CCSP,
  included emphasis on decision support

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What are some of the key science-related policy
issues defined by the Administration?
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1. What is the Current State of the Climate
System?
The climate system is complex and is regulated by
interactions and feedbacks across many
different components.
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Climate Change Has Been Observed

• Global mean temperature increased by 0.6 0.2C.
• 1990s warmest decade, 1998 warmest year in the
  instrumental record (1861-2000)
• Degree of confidence higher today but
• Natural variability
• Model limitations
• Proxy record errors
• Inconsistent records

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2. How Are Human Activities Affecting the Climate
System ?

• Humans have changed concentrations of GHGs
• Atmospheric CO2 has increased by 30 since 1750
• Methane has increased by 150
• Increase due to combustion of fossil fuels,
  land-use changes, and agriculture
• Humans also contribute to aerosols concentrations
  (sulfate and black carbon)

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Can Climate Change Be Attributed to Human
Activities?

• Compare observed changes to historically-force
  model simulations
• Models simulate past changes most closely when
  forcing includes natural and human factors (e.g.,
  GHG and aerosol emissions)

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3. How Might Climate Evolve in the Future?

• Climate Change Projections Depend on
• Human driving forcesemissions and land use/cover
  change (population, economics, )
• Emissions to concentrationsrole of carbon cycle
  uncertainties
• Concentrations to radiative forcingaerosol
  uncertainties
• Radiative forcing to climate responseuncertainty
  in climate sensitivity

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Current Projections Show

• Increase in global average surface temperatures
  (1.4-5.8º C by 2100)
• Rise of sea level (9-88 cm higher in 2100)
• Projected changes for the 21st century are larger
  than those that have already occurred
• Further changes will take place to reach
  equilibrium
• Figure depicts additional changes and level of
  certainty

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Modeling Challenges

• Uncertainties in modeling key
• feedback processes (clouds,
• water vapor, ice, aerosols)
• Improve skill at regional
• climate forecasting
• Improve modeling of extreme events
• Assess potential for abrupt changes, which are
  seen in paleo records (i.e. ocean thermohaline
  circulation)

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4. What Impacts Might We Expect from Climate
Change?

• Impacts will depend on the magnitude, rate, and
  regional distribution of change
• Assessing impacts of climate change is difficult
  
• the lack of reliable local or regional detail in
  climate projections, especially for extreme
  events
• uncertain interactions of multiple stresses
  (e.g., land-use change and local pollution)
• uncertainty in how much ingenuity and commitment
  societies show in responding to potential impacts
• balancing positive and negative effects
• choice of numeraire for counting impacts

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Observed Changes in Regional Climates Have
Already Affected Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems

• Average growing season longer
• Ranges of some species of plants,
• insects, birds, and fish shifted
• poleward and upward in elevation
• Earlier flowering in some plants
• Increased frequency of coral
• bleaching

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Potential Impacts for North America

• Ecosystems are especially vulnerable
• Widespread water concerns arise
• Food supply is secure
• Near-term forest growth increases
• Increased damage occurs in coastal and permafrost
  areas
• Adaptation determines health outcomes
• Uncertainties remain and surprises are expected
• Source US Climate Action Report

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How Are Climate Research and Technology
Development Supported in the U.S.?

• 13 Federal Agencies/Departments coordinate their
  activities through the Climate Change Science
  Program (CCSP)
• Close coordination with energy technology programs

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Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change
Science Program

• Strategic Plan based on
• Comments during workshop (1300 participants)
• 270 sets of comments during an open comment
  period
• Review by the NRC
• Government review

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Vision for the CCSP

• A nation and the global community empowered with
  the science-based knowledge to manage the risks
  and opportunities of change in the climate and
  related environmental systems

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CCSP Mission

• Facilitate the creation and application of
  knowledge of the Earths global environment
  through research, observations, decision support,
  and communication

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CCSP Strategy Includes

• Five goals with long-term research foci and
  short-term products
• Basic research in 7 core science elements, with
  accelerated focus on key uncertainties (aerosols,
  feedbacks, carbon)
• Observations (accelerate additional observations
  and protect threatened series)
• Decision support (1. reports 2. support for
  adaptive management and 3. national policye.g.,
  energy options)
• Communications (transparency, accountability, and
  new products)

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• Better understanding of long term natural cycles
  in climate
• Understand climate extremes
• Expand observations/data capabilities

• Improve capabilities to
• forecast seasonal to
• interannual cycles of
• variability
• Increase confidence in
• understanding how and why
• climate has changed

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• Reduce uncertainty in sources and sinks of
  GHGs, aerosols
• Monitor ozone layer recovery and climate-ozone
  interactions

• Understand interactions among pollutant
  emissions, atmospheric transport, and air quality
• Improve quantification of net emissions of GHGs
• Improve capabilities for conducting If,then
  analysis

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• Characterization of circulation of oceans and
  atmosphere
• Improve understanding of key feedbacks (i.e.
  water vapor)

• Understand conditions that give
• rise to abrupt or discontinuous changes
• Incorporate best knowledge of
• climate processes and feedbacks
• into models
• Improve capacity to develop and
• apply models

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• Improve knowledge of sensitivity of ecosystems

• Provide scientific input for
• evaluating adaptation options
• Improve understanding of how changes in
  ecosystems and human infrastructure interact over
  long periods of time

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• Develop resources to support adaptive management
  and
• planning, and transition these resources from
  research to
• application

• Prepare scientific syntheses
• and assessments
• Develop and evaluate methods
• to support policymaking and
• demonstrate these methods
• with case studies

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Guidelines for Preparation of Synthesis and
Assessment Products

• Government documents mixture of external and
  Federal actors involved in preparation
• Lead agencies take responsibility
• Transparency in all steps of production
• Framing define product and customer community
  input draft prospectus for comment
• Drafting open to LA nominations and input of
  materials
• Review open, transparent, and traceable
• Production consistent format
• Draft guidelines will be available for public
  comment (Fed. Register and CCSP website)

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Implementation Concerns

• CCSP is promising final answers to questions
  that require long-term research
• NO. Long-term nature is acknowledged. Products
  will provide updates on important and/or rapidly
  evolving scientific issues
• CCSP is competing with IPCC or other processes
• CCSP products will focus on key sub-issues in
  phase 1 or follow-up with greater detail in phase
  2 than is possible in the international
  assessments
• CCSP approval of science
• Transparency of process and use of structure that
  includes technical documents and policy summaries

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Framework for Supporting Adaptive Management
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Conclusions

• Research has progressed
• Important uncertainties remain and are being
  addressed
• Applied research is already informing policy
  makers and resource managers
• Deciding when we know enough is a value
  judgment not a scientific issue
• CCSP is at the center of controversy the outcome
  of debate has meaning beyond the immediate
  climate science and policy issues

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For Further Information

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• http//www.ipcc.ch
• US Global Change Research Program
• Our Changing Planet annual report
• http//www.usgcrp.gov
• Climate Change Science Program
• http//www.climatescience.gov
• Global Change Research Information Office
• http//www.gcrio.org