Ingenuity

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Ingenuity
Theory
Can Humankind Create a Sustainable Civilization?
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Are we creating a world thats too complex to
manage?
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Do the experts really know whats going on?
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Are we really as smart as we think we are?
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Can we solve the problems of the future?
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War in the Persian Gulf
The lightening spread of SARS
Deadly heat waves in Europe and India
Blackouts in North America and Europe
Suicide attacks in the Middle East
Millions affected by AIDS in Africa
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Is there something new here?
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Two Questions
Are the problems were confronting becoming
harder?
Most definitely
If so, can we solve them?
Too often not
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H.G. Wells
Hard imaginative thinking has not increased so
as to keep pace with the expansion and
complications of human societies and
organizations. This is the darkest shadow upon
the hopes of mankind.
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Ingenuity
Sets of instructions that tell us how to arrange
the constituent parts of our physical and social
worlds in ways that help us achieve our goals.
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Economic paradigm
Human beings are Rational Consumers
Key concepts Consumption/production Investment/s
aving
Factors of production (or system inputs) Capital
and labor Sometimes land and ideas
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Ingenuity paradigm
Human beings are Pragmatic Problem-Solvers
Key concepts Ingenuity requirement and supply
Factors of problem-solving or system
inputs Matter, energy (work), and ingenuity
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Human beings use ingenuity
To guide the application of energy
To arrange the matter around them (including
materials and people)
In ways that they hope will solve their problems
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Two types of ingenuity
Social
Technical
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Is our requirement for ingenuity rising?
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Greater Complexity through
structural deepening (adding sub-systems and
internal links)
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A Simple Network
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Greater Complexity by adding nodes and links
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Greater Velocity Because of a higher rate of
transfer
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Greater Velocity Because of a higher rate of
transfer
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Greater Velocity Because of a higher rate of
transfer
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Greater Velocity Because of a higher rate of
transfer
Amount of material, energy, and/or information
transferred per unit time along network links
2000
1900
2100
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Globalization
Involves a rapid increase in the
Complexity Pace Connectedness and Scope
of all humankinds activities
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Changes in Temperature and in CO2 Concentration
Over Time
Temperature (from the present core temperature
of -55.5 ?C)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
CO2 (right axis)
Temperature (left axis)
Thousands of Years before Present
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Changes in Temperature and in CO2 Concentration
Over Time
Projection
Temperature (from the present core temperature
of -55.5 ?C)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
CO2 (right axis)
Temperature (left axis)
Thousands of Years before Present
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Can we always supply the ingenuity we need?
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The ingenuity supply chain
Brains
Science
Markets
Politics
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Practical constraints on science
Some problems are intrinsically hard
Costs escalate as research progresses
Scientific institutions may not function well
Society may not be supportive
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The ingenuity supply chain
Brains
Science
Markets
Politics
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Requirement
Ingenuity Gap
Supply
Time
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What does this situation mean for our future?
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Widening gulfs between
rich
poor
powerful
weak
INGENUITY THEORY