Several Challenges Going Forward

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Several Challenges Going Forward

• Know Zone Lecture
• The Tech
• 5 May 1999
• Gordon Bell
• Microsoft Corporation

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Some challenges

• Fifty years ago the first stored program computer
  ran at Manchester. Now, we should posit
  challenges for the next five decades that will
  exploit computing. Several challenges are
  inter-related because they depend on being able
  to analyze and synthesize human voice and images.
  Already, humans have failed the Turing test when
  communicating via printed text. When will
  computers be able to win when communicating via
  telephone or videophone? Given this capability
  and the extraordinary advances in processing and
  storage, we should be able to build systems that
  can record, store, and retrieve everything we
  have read (written), heard (said), and seen
  (performed or been a part of).

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The two great inventions

• The computer (1946 realised in 1948). Computers
  supplement and substitute for all other info
  processors, including humans
• Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds,
  and prices the challenge is to exploit them
• Computers are built from other computers in a
  iterative, layered, and recursive fashion
• The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated
  Circuit (1957).
• Processors, memories, switching, and transduction
  are the primitives in well-defined
  hardware-software levels
• A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other
  transducer technologies

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Moores First Law

• Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60
  increase per year
• Chip density
• Microprocessor speed
• Exponential growth
• The past does not matter
• 10x here, 10x there means REAL change
• PC costs decline faster than any other platform
• Volume and learning curves
• PCs are the building bricks of all future systems

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Bells Law of Computer Class Formation
Technology enables two evolutionary paths 1.
constant performance, decreasing cost 2.
constant price, increasing performance
Mini
1.26 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade 1/1.26 .8 1.6
4x/3 yrs --100x/decade 1/1.6 .62
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Bells Nine Computer Price Tiers

• 1 embeddables e.g. greeting
  card
• 10 wrist watch wallet computers
• 100 pocket/ palm computers
• 1,000 portable computers
• 10,000 personal computers (desktop)
• 100,000 departmental computers
  (closet)
• 1,000,000 site computers (glass house)
• 10,000,000 regional computers (glass
  castle)
• 100,000,000 national centers

Super server costs more than 100,000Mainframe
costs more than 1 million an array of
processors, disks, tapes, comm ports
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Platform evolution What do they do thats
useful? How do they communicate?
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Extrapolation from 1950s 20-30 growth per year
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Gains if 20, 40, 60 / year
60 Exaops
1.E21 1.E18 1.E15 1.E12 1.E 9 1.E6
40 Petaops
20 Teraops
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
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Going forward Seven challenges

• Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
  conversation
• Everything will be in Cyberspace
• Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
  ownership risk
• Telepresence
• The Guardian Angel for health
• The Cyber Admin for personal use
• Infinitely scalable systems

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Turing test you cant tell whether you are
communicating with a person or a machine using

• Text limited context
• Voice
• context
• speech to text and text to speed
• Visual image and voice
• more context
• synthesis of dynamic, human images

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Going forward challenges

• Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
  conversation
• Everything will be in Cyberspace
• Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
  ownership risk
• Telepresence
• The Guardian Angel for health
• The Cyber Admin for personal use
• Infinitely scalable systems

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Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!
Body
Continent
Car
Region/ Intranet
Home
Campus, including SANs
World
Fractal Cyberspace a network of networks of
platforms
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Everything will be in Cyberspace

• Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate? or
• Cyberization enables new computing platforms
  thatrequire new networks to connect them
• Infrastructure supports the content
• Three evolutionary dimensions

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Cyberization interface to all bits and process
information

• Coupling to all information and information
  processors
• Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video
• Bit tokens e.g. money, stock
• State of places, things, and people
• State of physical networks

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Atoms vs Electrons for bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless) people
know computers know bricks mortar anywhere
(personnel/clients) office hours anytime database
reports web access for review and
transactions letter fax email web
access phone email, voice video mail personal
visits videophone / videomail signature authentica
ted images envelopes digital envelopes /
store voice, text are unique bits take on any form
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By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion
people on the net.Bet Nicholas Negroponte
1KBet Nicholas Negroponte 1K5K it
happens by 2002.Also 1 T of commerce by 2001.
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Why this is the keystone bet!

• It determines the market
• for networks
• for access devices especially PCs
• It says something about the utility
• commerce
• communication
• entertainment
• Increased network capacity ubiquity enables
• phones
• videophones
• television
• serendipity

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Internetters growth
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
World Populationextrapolated at 1.6 per year
Internet Growthextrapolated at 98 per year
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
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Cyberspace A spiraling quest in 3D real space
Computation
Cyberization
Communication
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Cyberspace one, two or three networks? in
2005, 2010, 2020
Will we have gateways?
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Going forward challenges

• Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
  conversation
• Everything will be in Cyberspace
• Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
  ownership risk
• Telepresence
• The Guardian Angel for health
• The Cyber Admin for personal use
• Infinitely scalable systems

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Atoms that represent money, ownership, risk
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New or old money its just bits
Credit
ATM /
Prepaid
Check
Cash
Prepaid
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Put those checks statements in Cyberspace or
eliminate them!
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Buying selling stock what a pain!Faxes?
(Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.)
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Paperless transactions put them all in Cyberspace
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(No Transcript)
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Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless) money data
base, smart card, credit card, debit
card statements web access bills / checks bill
present. / check free coupons cyber-coupons stock
database, web statements, reports web access,
email company infor, analyst reports,
etc. private placements web access, email trade
confirmation direct trades mail voting on line
voting
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Going forward challenges

• Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
  conversation
• Everything will be in Cyberspace
• Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
  ownership risk
• Telepresence
• The Guardian Angel for health
• The Cyber Admin for personal use
• Infinitely scalable systems

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Telepresence being there while being here, at
another time, and with time scaling

• Telepresentations
• Telemeetings and telecollaboration
• The work

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(No Transcript)
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MotivationTelepresentations

• Presenter and/or audience telepresent

NOT meeting or collaboration settings Forget the
nasty social issues!
Mostly one-way
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TelepresentationElements

• Slides
• Audio
• Video
• Script, text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

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TelepresentationsThe Essentials

• Slide and audio a must
• Add some video (low quality) to make us feel
  good
• Storage and transmission costs low

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TelepresentationsThe Killer App

• Increased attendance lower travel costs
• Practical and low-cost NOW
• e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000
  visitors on Internethttp//research.microsoft.com
  /acm97

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What about telecollaboration? working together
at a distance
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Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing
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(No Transcript)
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Telework its the sound, screens, and bandwidth,
stupid
http//research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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Mobile videophone
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Honda Robot
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People surrogates
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By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50 of
the PCs and be in use.

• Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser
  gets fed)

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Living in Cyberspace the infrastructurebeing
always connected is essential
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Intrastructure
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SOHO (small office, home office)network
computing environment
IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) gt1.5
Mbps
POTS (legacy services)
NT Server for comm/network, POTS/IP gateway,
file, print, compute
LAN
NC
PC
PC
NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.
...
...
Phone
Phone
Phone
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Attending simultaneous meetings
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Telepresence Challenge

• hold a meeting of type, m
• university or technical course
• interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board
  meeting, annual meeting, town hall,
• with p, distributed persons
• with as much interactivity and feeling
• such that people prefer being telepresent
• meetings are provably more productive
• meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus
  traditional synchronous

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Milli-bill, another type of telepresence...
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Fujitsu 42 plasma panel
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MilliBill

• Large, general purpose panel
• Paintings, photos, videos, a new art medium, and
• even TV
• Becomes a true window to anywhere
• Voice interface
• Evolves to cover entire wall so that everyone can
  be by a window

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Going forward challenges

• Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
  conversation
• Everything will be in Cyberspace
• Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
  ownership risk
• Telepresence
• The Guardian Angel for health
• The Cyber Admin for personal use
• Infinitely scalable systems

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The Guardian AngelKnows about your state of
health.Has the latest medical knowledge.
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Your husband just died, heres his black box
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Steve ManninCyberspace
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Not shown ECG GPS
Compass altimeter
PCS Pilot
Libretto, .5mm pencil
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera Swiss Army Knife
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A device that would have saved me from a heart
attack
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BAN, PAN or whatever for people networks

• Temperature monitoring with the flu
• Saved me from a heart attack
• Where is the person, exactly a baby sitter
• Lets interact ala Barney

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MedtronicsImplantedCardioplasticstimulatorcard
io- recorder
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Moores law is less important than MEMS
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4 Experts Predict BionicsWired, February 1997

• Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005
• Bionic Limbs 2013
• Artificial Vision 2040
• Bionic Person (unlikely)

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Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological
parameters1 GB
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Going forward challenges

• Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
  conversation
• Everything will be in Cyberspace
• Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
  ownership risk
• Telepresence
• The Guardian Angel for health
• The Cyber Admin for personal use
• Infinitely scalable systems

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The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memoryWhen
we can store everything weve read/written,
heard/said, seen/acted, plusphysical
parameters.
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What does Cyber Admin do?

• Captures the creation of all personal/professional
  information
• Stores and organizes
• Retrieval is the challenge
• recalling readings, conversations, presentations,
  images
• helps the guardian angel
• What are the apps?
• when we can do this?

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Vannevar Bush c1945

• There will always be plenty of things to compute
  ... With millions of people doing complicated
  things.
• memex stores all ones books, records, and
  communications, and ... can be consulted with
  speed and flexibility
• Matchbook sized, .05 encyclopedia
• Speech to text
• Head mounted camera, dry photography

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(No Transcript)
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My project putting my legacy and future bits in
Cyberspacehttp//www.research.microsoft/

• Personal paper documents
• Books (encoded by CMU), papers, articles, memos,
  notes, email, notebooks, drawings
• Encode video and audio lectures
• Current electronic media
• email, files, papers, photos (now digital)
• voice notes and records
• Would like to capture photos and slides

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The other side finding and getting the bits
out of Cyberspace

• Retrieval is the next challenge
• Database(s)
• Indexers (Magnifi, Virage, etc.)
• Icons so people can help the computer
• Being able to see and use electronic bits as well
  as paper bits will have to wait until display
  technology appears

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Technology getting, storing, and finding those
bits

• The Source bits on paper, computers,
  video/audiotape, telephones, cameras, etc.
• Capturing encoding
• 1D (Word) 2 D documents, photos, etc.
• voice
• video
• Recognizing when necessary MIPS help OCR is
  almost as fast as reading the file
• Storing disks are getting cheaper
• Organizing databases are many and fragmented
• Retrieving however possible

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Capture and encoding
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HP Digital Sender color document scanner
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Sony voice notes recorder
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Evolving cameras to capture images and voice notes
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A word about storage CDs hold 6 near VHS
quality videos (300 Kbps)
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Coexisting with Paper

• Paper is the best GUI (screen dump) without peer
• portable read anywhere, anyway, anytime
• contrast ratio
• resolution (3-30x screens)
• form factor, weight
• ubiquity, cost, infrastructure
• with good OCR, it is a loss-less medium
• For many documents, paper is very expensive
• large and multiple documents are heavy
• hard to transmit
• difficult to store (only access is via people)
• computer cannot access them
• Goal use paper as a loss-less bit medium

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Book page
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Computer-Paper Co-existence

• Goals for encoding paper for the computer
• Handling must be as easy as discarding it
• Input, Identify, OCR, Index, save, and retrieve
  in every possible context
• Interface unobtrusive and humane
• Put all documents in Cyberspace
• Ubiquitous scanners are key!
• Totally eliminate the need for copiers
• Totally eliminate the need for file cabinets

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Storing all weve read (written), heard (said),
seen (participated)
Human data-types /hr /day
(/4yr) /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K
2 -10 M/G 60-300 G speech text _at_120wpm 43 K
0.5 M/G 15 G speech _at_1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2
T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25
T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
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Now how do you find or use the rich information
The system must locate, retrieve, visualize,
order, up load the corporations IP assets
(text, proposals, images, videos, presentations,
etc.) with appropriate controls.
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Thumbnails to aid retrieval
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SmartMedia Technologies
Context Relevance
Image Recognition for Objects Speech
Recognition Image Recognition, Lexical
Cues Transcripts Close Caption Lexical Analysis
Viewing
Color
Previews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork
BW
Brightness
Contrast
Volume
Speech-Music
Meta Information
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Virage Video Cataloger
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Going forward challenges

• Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
  conversation
• Everything will be in Cyberspace
• Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
  ownership risk
• Telepresence
• The Guardian Angel for health
• The Cyber Admin for personal use
• Infinitely scalable systems

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Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers

• All clients networked to servers
• May be nomadicor on-demand
• Fast clients wantfaster servers
• Servers provide
• Shared Data
• Control
• Coordination
• Communication

Clients
Mobileclients
Fixedclients
Servers
Server
Super server
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Cluster Shared What?

• Shared Memory Multiprocessor
• Multiple processors, one memory
• all devices are local
• DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN
• Shared Disk Cluster
• an array of nodes
• all shared common disks
• VAXcluster Oracle
• Shared Nothing Cluster
• each device local to a node
• ownership may change
• Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack

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SNAP Scalable Networks and Platforms

• Standard (I.e. commodity) platform
• The SAN (System Area Network) standard makes the
  network ubiquitous and great!
• Common operating system for platform, reducing
  vendor and customer costs,and enables
  affordable, standard apps
• Cluster technology
• Apps are TRANSPARENT!!!

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SNAP Systems circa 2000
Local global data comm world
Legacy mainframe minicomputer servers
terminals
Mobile Nets
Portables
Wide-area global ATM network
Person servers (PCs)
ATM Ethernet to PC, workstation, servers
scalable computers built from PCs SANs
Telecomputers aka Internet Terminals
???
Centralized departmental servers built from PCs

• A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and
  reliability scalable environment

TCTVPC home ... (CATV or ATM or satellite)
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Scaling dimensions include

• reliability including always up
• number of nodes
• most cost-effective system built from best nodes
  PCs with NO backplane
• highest throughput distributes disks to each node
  versus into a single node
• location within a region or continent
• time-scale I.e. machine generations

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U.S. Tax Dollars At WorkASCI for Stockpile
Stewardship

• Intel/Sandia 9000x1 node Ppro
• LLNL/IBM 512x8 PowerPC (SP2)
• LNL/Cray ?
• Maui Supercomputer Center
• 512x1 SP2

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The Alliance LES NT Supercluster
Supercomputer performance at mail-order
prices-- Jim Gray, Microsoft

• Andrew Chien, CS UIUC--gtUCSD
• Rob Pennington, NCSA
• Myrinet Network, HPVM, Fast Msgs
• Microsoft NT OS, MPI API

192 HP 300 MHz
64 Compaq 333 MHz
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The GridBlueprint for a New Computing
InfrastructureIan Foster, Carl Kesselman (Eds),
Morgan Kaufmann, 1999

• Published July 1998
• ISBN 1-55860-475-8
• 22 chapters by expert authors including
• Andrew Chien,
• Jack Dongarra,
• Tom DeFanti,
• Andrew Grimshaw,
• Roch Guerin,
• Ken Kennedy,
• Paul Messina,
• Cliff Neuman,
• Jon Postel,
• Larry Smarr,
• Rick Stevens,
• Charlie Catlett
• John Toole
• and many others

A source book for the history of the future --
Vint Cerf
http//www.mkp.com/grids
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Infinite or indefinite parallelism use installed
machines

• 10,000 nodes in 1998 or 10x Increase
• Assume 100K nodes
• 10 Gflops/10GBy/100GB nodes or low end c2010 PCs
• Communication is first problem use the network
• Programming is still the major barrier
• Will any problems fit it

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Challenge Is it possible to use millions of
computers for a single, large scale project?
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The end