The Long-Term Outlook for the West

1
The Long-Term Outlook for the West

• Steven G. Cochrane
• Director, Regional Services, RFA
• May 31, 2000

2
Job Growth Few Outliers
U.S. 2.2
Below Average
Average
Above Average
change year ago, 3-mo. moving average, February
2000 Average is within 1/2 std. dev. of mean
state growth rate of 2.0
3
Variation of State Economic Performance Stays
Narrow
Oil Price Shock
90-91 Recession
Peso Devaluation
Trend Line
Standard deviation of year-to-year job growth by
state
Source BLS
4
Most Major Metros Are Doing Well
5
Exposure to ExportsCommodity exports as a share
of GDP
U.S. 7.5 in 1999
Below Average
Average
Above Average
Sources MISER, BEA, RFA
6
Venture Capital Supports the West
Venture Capital Placements by Region (B)
Source PricewaterhouseCoopers
7
Venture Capital Is ConcentratedV.C. placements
as a share of GDP, 1999
U.S. 0.39
Below Average
Average
Above Average
Source PricewaterhouseCoopers, BEA, RFA
8
California Metro Areas Soak Up V.C.
Venture capital as a share of gross metro
product, 1999
Source PricewaterhouseCoopers
9
West Is Home to More Internet Sites
Location of web site owners, based on
approximately 75,000 sites Source Alexa
Research, 2000
10

More Than Half the Internet Economy is in the West
By headquarters location of Internet-related firms
of U.S. May 19, 2000
Public and private companies
11
Southern Western Internet-Related Firms holding
Value Better

change in Market Cap Mid-February to May 19
12
Number of Internet-related Firms
13

Market Capitalization as Percent of GMP
14
Computer Internet-related jobs
Occupations include Electrical electronic
engineers Computer engineers and
mathematicians Engineering and science
technicians Programmers
share of total employment
15
Biotech Related Jobs
Occupations include Life scientists Chemists and
other physical scientists
share of total employment
16
Housing BalanceTight in CA Plentiful Elsewhere
Months of excess supply
17
Business Costs MatterRFAs Cost of Doing
Business Index
share of total employment
18
Wests Population Will Grow By More Than
One-Third in 30 years
Millions
26
25
24
23
21 of U.S.
19
Wests Population Will Be Older
of total population
25-44
45-64
5-19
65
20
Metro Areas Will Dominate
of Wests total population in metropolitan areas
California crisis
Long-term trend
Rural renaissance
Metro rebound
21
Mountain West Job Growth is FastestAnnualized
30-year job growth, 2000 to 2030
U.S. 1.0
Above Average
Average
Below Average
22
West Extends Lead in High-Tech Jobs
High-tech employment as share of total
West
Rest of U.S.
23
Mountain States Takes Greater Share of Jobs
share of U.S. employment
Pacific States
Mountain States