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The Groundwork forSimulationEvent Modeling
John Flynt, Ph.D.
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Event Modeling Defined I

• A novel is already written.
• You follow the plot.
• You reach the end.
• You read the story.
• You study the author.

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Event Modeling Defined II

• A simulation is a pen.
• You generate the plot.
• You find no end.
• You are the story.
• You are the author.

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An Event Model

• A system of interactive contexts
• A plan that enables you create for yourself new
  capacities to have experience
• A way to shape experience so that experience can
  create the capacity to experience
• A model that subverts models

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Event Modeling Topics

• Phenomenology
• Hermeneutics
• Systems Theory
• Information Theory
• Cognitive Science

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Basic Phenomenology

• Experience does not happen without mediation
• A complex set of factors come into play, shaped
  by everything from biological evolution to social
  constructs, to provide implicit models

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Basic Hermeneutics

• Meaning arises through interpretation.
• The whole shapes the part the part shapes the
  whole
• What you can see determines what you do see.

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Basic Systems Theory

• Systems arise from self-sustaining collections of
  functionally interactive elements
• No one element is central

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Basic Information Theory

• The real is the least dissonant
• Metadata structures data
• Symmetrical
• Asymmetrical

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Basic Cognitive Science

• Consciousness anchors most of what it significant
• The capacity to replicate conscious events adds
  to their significance
• Thinking is a perfectible activity

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Challenges to Simulation

• Simulation is not imitation
• Simulation is not realism
• Simulation is not applied math

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Challenges to Simulation

• Simulation extends experience
• Simulation creates a context of interaction
• Simulation generates experience

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Event Modeling

• Establishes goals
• Sets out maps
• Stages events to mark the map
• Provides incentives
• Induces learning

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Goal

• Point of awareness
• Point of curiosity
• Part that leads to a whole
• Can be repeated
• Maps to several paths

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Map

• Chart paths
• Diversify paths to each goal
• Diversify events that provide a context
• Dynamic that creates interactions
• Embodies event models through paths

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Event

• An event is something that leads beyond itself
• Expresses emotion and thought
• Embodies emotion and thought
• That combines with other events
• That extends a story

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Incentive

• Create contexts of experience
• Extend maps for experience
• Increase recognition of events
• Bring focus to goals
• Create ownership

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Learning

• Enhances the capacity to have experience
• Is a means to experience
• Makes map ownership possible
• Creates a map that maps itself
• Provides awareness of a metacontext

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Practical Activities

• Duck Rabbit
• Inferential and Iconic
• Show numbers
• Develop tools
• Show alternatives

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Duck-Rabbit
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Modes of Logic
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Inductive and Iconic

• When you evaluate the significance of a system
  using a logic that is external to the system,
  then the approach you use originates with
  inference, and tends to be characterized by a
  single mode of reasoning.
• When you evaluate a system using a logic that you
  find implicit to the system, then you follow an
  iconic approach to logic, and your reasoning is
  multi-modal.

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Significance

• The significance of a system can be evaluated in
  terms to the extent to which it involves you in
  the events it embodies.
• To place this notion in a different context,
  consider what it is to be a religious believer as
  opposed to an observer of religions. Consider
  what it is to be an anthropologist who observes
  communities as opposed to being a member of a
  community.

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Event Models Create Interaction

• Contexts (and systems) can be evaluated in terms
  of the interactions they foster
• Between the event and the system as accidental.
• Between the event and the system as mutually
  defining.
• Between the event and the system as
  deterministic.
• Between the event and the system as defined
  according to context

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Saturation

• Cognitive saturation has to do with the extent to
  which a context of participation - a system
  -brings into play all the possibilities that it
  might bring into play relative to the cognitive
  framework of the participant. Saturation becomes
  cognitive when it relates to the types of
  thinking, problem solving, questioning, or other
  activities you engage in as you are involved with
  the system.

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Delusional?

• According to mathematician Paul Davies, the
  Anthropic Principle asserts, generally, that we
  can only observe a universe that is consistent
  with our own existence (MD, 200). While this
  notion might be viewed as a truism, it remains,
  as Professor Davies observes, that even slight
  changes to the way things are might render the
  universe unobservable is surely a fact of deep
  significance (MG, 200).
• See Paul Davies, The Mind of God The Scientific
  Basis for a Rational World (New York Simon and
  Schuster, 1992).

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What you see

• You build what you have tools to build with.
• You see what you know how to see.
• Go go where you know to go.
• But
• You inquire if you think there is more.
• When a door is shut you do not usually then
  conclude that the other side of the door does not
  exist.

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Assessing Assumptions

• An approach to assessing contexts
• A tool that is intended to show pathways, not to
  prescribe ends
• An initial attempt

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Systems

• Systems arise from self-sustaining collections of
  functionally interactive elements
• No one element is central
• You need to find out why this is possible

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Escaping Reality

• The logic of the system emerges
• Interpretation can enforce modes
• You need a way out
• Essentials

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Naming
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Maintaining Strangeness
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Connectivity
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Focal Points
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Flow of Events
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Premature Analysis
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Developing Contexts
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Assessing Interactions
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Transitions

• You can speak about interactions as
  transitions
• Node Reception - NR(node) - The number or
  transitions that show a node receiving
  information.
• Node Output - NO(node) -The number of transitions
  that show a node supplying information to another
  node.
• Node Connectivity - NC(node) -The total number of
  connectors for a given node.

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Recognizing Event Contexts
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Isolating Contexts
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The Influence of a Context

• A context of events influences the system of
  which it is a part
• CI (node) order NR x NO x NC,
  where NR, NO, or NC 1
  if NR, NO, or NC 0
• Context Influence - CI(node)order The Context
  Influence for a given node is relative to a given
  order of evaluation. It is relative to the
  product of the transitions that characterize it
• CI NR x NO x NC, where NR, NO, or NC 1 if NR,
  NO, or NC 0.

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Context and Connectors
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Significance

• You can speak about the significance of a
  contexts influence
• Context Significance of Influence
  -SI(node)order -The sum of the influences that
  contribute a given context of interaction. S
  CI1 CIn.

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Context Significance
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Values of Transitions and Paths

• Transition Value (TV) - The sum the two
  contributing contexts.
• TV CIn CIn1.
• Path Value (PV) - The sum of the path transition
  values that constitute a given scenario.
• PV SnTV1 TV2
  TVn.
• Total Path Value (PV) - The sum of the path
  transition values that constitute a given system.
• PV STTV1 TV2
  TVn.

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Context Significance and Paths
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Calculation of Path Values
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Cognitive Saturation

• To determine the total cognitive saturation index
  for a system, you make use of the relative path
  value (RPV) and the relative context
  significance. . .

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Working the problem

• To arrive at this number, you take the total
  value of the paths the total system offers and
  find the ratio of this value to the value of the
  paths the scenario stipulates
• . . .
• The ratio turns out to be 303/347.

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Working the problem

• The relative context significance is the ratio of
  the number of event contexts the path includes
  to the number of event contexts the system
  provides. . .
• Since 8 of the event contexts lie in the path the
  scenario designates, the ratio is 8/9.

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Now for the final number

• To determine the saturation index, you average
  these two rations.
• 888 .873/2 0.880.

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What?????

• Experience does not happen without mediation
• A complex set of factors come into play, shaped
  by everything from biological evolution to social
  constructs, to provide implicit models

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What?

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The End
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