Energy Assurance

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Energy Assurance
Gil Weigand Strategic Programs Computing and
Computational Sciences Directorate December 10,
2007
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U.S. Energy Production, Distribution and
Consumption System is Complex

• Today the system is tightly balanced between
  supply and demand
• Disruptions impact economy, jobs, U.S.
  competitiveness, and may lead to a recession

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Energy
and Efficiency, U.S. Energy Flows 2002
(UCRL-TR-129990-02) https//eed.llnl.gov/flow/02fl
ow.php
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Avoidance of Costly Energy Disruptions Energy
Assurance

• Energy Assurance isThe ability to obtain,
  without costly disruption, the energy required by
  the United States in assured, economically viable
  ways to satisfy residential, commercial, and
  transportation requirements.
• Disruptions to the Energy We Need Are
  Inevitable.
• You Cannot Eliminate Disruptions! You Can,
  However, Make Their Impact Small.

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Energy Assurance
Energy Assurance Has Three Critical Parts
Energy Assurance Is Also A Complex Relationship
Among Four Security Themes
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Not All Elements Within These Security Themes Are
Under U.S. Control
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Prevailing Conditions Today

• U.S. Energy Supply vs. Demand is very tightly
  wound and increasingly lacks the flexibility
  necessary to cope with inevitable disruptions and
  competition for supply
• Environmental Security increasingly becoming a
  factor in energy consumption
• All major candidates for President have stated
  the importance of a more independent energy
  supply and more efficient consumption and
  distribution of energy for the United States
• The threats to Energy Assurance for the United
  States are increasing and are increasingly
  outside of U.S. control
• Economic Growth and Energy Assurance are tightly
  linked
• Cyber-based systems are perceived by the public
  as having a poor record for security and the
  protection of private information

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Why An Energy Assurance Technology-Based Effort
Now?

• The U.S. Public is Poised to Demand Energy
  Assurance
• Technology-Based Solutions Are the Most Viable
  Option for the Central Focus for Achieving Energy
  Assurance in the Near Term
• They offer the best opportunity to balance
  Energy, National, Economic, and Environmental
  Security
• They depend upon the existence of a strong U.S.
  science and technology program
• They are completely in U.S. control
• They engage a wide and diverse science,
  technology and production workforce
• They address all energy sectors
• They address production, distribution, and
  consumption
• They fuel renewed growth and entrepreneurship
• They are enabling not defensive

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There is no Silver Bullet
The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly Balanced
Between Supply and Demand
HarmfulDisruptions (status-quo)
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Fortunately Small Changes Have an Impact on
Energy Assurance
Energy Assurance
A Small Change Will Have a Big Impact
Exa-Scale Will Introduce Systems Level Modeling
The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly Balanced
Between Supply and Demand
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Energy AssurancePath Forward for High Impact
Industry Will Deliver the Broad Solutions
Create the New
Fix the Legacy
Solutions, Jobs,
Solutions, Jobs,
IPO Companies
Demonstrations
Investment Capital Model (VCs drive business to
IPO)
Dream-Team Model (Industry leads partnership)
Science, Technology, and Innovation Exa-Scale
Computing by 2015 and 20 by 20
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Achieving Energy Assurance-- Bet on a Science,
Technology, and Innovation --

• The successful strategy requires a prolific ST
  activity targeting all energy sectors to drive
  innovation and technology-based solutions
• The successful strategy uses computer technology
  to drive an aggressive pace2 decadesfor
  achieving U.S. Energy Assurance
• The successful strategy employs high dependence
  on cyber-based control and information systems
• The successful strategy links the ST activity
  with industry to drive energy assurance whether
  production-, distribution-, or consumption-based
  solutions into the marketplace

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Success Model for ST Focus for EnergyThe
Essential Three Parts Are
Modeling andComputer Systems
Science andTechnology
Cyber SecureInformation
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The successful strategy uses computer technology
to drive an aggressive pace2 decadesfor
achieving U.S. Energy Assurance

• 103 simulation computer capability advancement
  innovation cycle (3 to 4 years)
• Provide ST budget stability suitable to support
  recursive cycle of innovation
• 106 simulation computer capability advancement
  systems engineering development cycle (8 to 9
  years)
• Provide Demonstration and Deployment budget
  suitable to support recursive cycle of systems
  engineering development

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The successful strategy employs high dependence
on cyber-based control and information systems

• Perfectly secure system is not achievable
• Augment traditional device- and filtering- based
  protection methods with aggressive use of
  real-time threat detection
• Systems have built in capability advancement
• Learning
• Knowledge discovery
• Threat isolation
• Performance / Speed / Scope
• Systems have built in capability to capture
  increased knowledge and understanding

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Physical Science and Technology Disciplines to
Target for Innovation Opportunities
Bioenergy
Modeling andComputer Systems
Geosciences/Climate
Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Combustion
Science and Technology
Energy Storage
Nanoscience
Cyber SecureInformation
Superconductivity
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Science and Technology Drivers in Key Science
Domains
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Modeling and Computer Systems Disciplines to
Target for Innovation Opportunities
PetaOps Computers ExaOps Architectures
Cyber SecureInformation
Simulation Tools
Zoning and Problem Setup
106 Processor Algorithms
Modeling andComputer Systems
Parallel Graphics and Display of Results
Pathforward Engineering
Science and Technology
Numerical Mathematics
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Cyber Secure Information Disciplines to Target
for Innovation Opportunities
Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting
Science andTechnology
Data Integrity
Knowledge Discovery
Graphs, Statistics, and Linear Programming
Cyber Secure Information
Real-Time Algorithms for Learning Detection
Simulators
Modeling andComputer Systems
Data Analysis
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Goal of This ST

• Apply novel ST investigation simultaneously
  among
• Physical RD in areas (e.g., Transportation,
  Renewables, or Nuclear Energy),
• High Performance Computing and Modeling, and
• Cyber Secure Information
• to develop new or accelerate significantly
  recent technology advances with direct and near
  term application to Energy Assurance
• The ST will treat these three central focuses as
  a whole versus the traditional independence
• This approach is novel and will drive towards
  technology options that have a physical and
  virtual representation with cyber secure
  information as an integral element.

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Energy Assurance Timeline
Energy AssuranceAssessment

• 2010-2019 1st decadeCreate Science Base for
  Sustained, Decade-Long Technology Demonstration
  and Deployment In All Energy SectorsDemonstrate
  Technical Feasibility of Reaching Energy
  Assurance for US by 20291/3-way Based on Early
  Technology Innovation, Demonstration, and
  Deployment
• 2020-2029 2nd decadeTechnology Demonstrations
  and DeploymentsAchieve Energy Assurance

20years
High
Flexibility / Resilience
10 years
Low
Today
High
Low
Security / Independence