Huntingtons Clash of Civilizations:

1
Huntingtons Clash of Civilizations

• An empirical test?

2
Huntingtons thesis

• the fundamental source of conflict in this
  new world will not be primarily ideological or
  primarily economic. The great divisions among
  humankind and the dominating source of conflict
  will be cultural the fault lines between
  civilizations will be the battle lines of the
  future (Huntington 1993, p. 22)

3
The Fault Line between Civilizations

• More specifically, the Eastern boundary of
  Western Christianity in the year 1500 cuts
  through Belarus and Ukraine separating the more
  Catholic Western Ukraine from Orthodox Eastern
  Ukraine, swings Westwards separating Transylvania
  from the rest of Romania (Huntington 1993,
  p. 30)

4
(No Transcript)
5
Presidential Election, Romania 1996
6
Presidential Election, Ukraine 1994
7
So what?

• End of story, right?
• Wrong!
• Proof of regional divisions within these
  countries many potential causes
• E.g., economic development (poor vs. rich regions)

8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
Ukrainian politics economics vs. nationalism
12
(No Transcript)
13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
Conclusion?

• The results are inconsistent with an economic
  conflict explanation
• But they are consistent with a cultural conflict
  explanation
• In both 1994 and 1999, Kuchmas opponent was to
  his left (economically)
• However, Kuchmas relative position on the
  second, Ukrainian nationalist vs. Russophile
  dimension, changes

21
Kuchma 1994 vs. 1999

• In 1994, he was relatively more pro-Russian than
  his opponent
• In 1999, he had a relatively more nationalist
  (pro-Ukrainian) position
• Thus, in 1994 he was the natural choice for
  voters from the Russian-speaking Eastern regions
• In 1999, he became the natural choice for voters
  from the Ukrainian-speaking Western regions
• Final piece of evidence?

22
(No Transcript)
23
(No Transcript)