Skilling Up For Powerdown. A 10 Week evening class.

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Skilling Up For Powerdown.A 10 Week evening
class.

• Session 1.
• Peak Oil and Climate Change.

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The Petroleum Interval
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The Energy Slaves.
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Whats so great about oil?

• Incredibly energy dense.
• One gallon of oil (3.2kg) produces energy
  equivalent to
• 5kg of coal
• 10kg of wood
• 50 people toiling all day
• Stable at room temperature
• Easily stored and transported
• Low cost of extraction (initially)
• Versatile.
• Abundant.

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Living the Oil Age in an Irish pub
1900 2000 2100
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Where is it?Regular Oil
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Peak Oil.
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Discovery peaked 40 years ago
Past discovery by ExxonMobil
Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average
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US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in 1930, Production in
1970
Peak to Peak - 40 years
Peak Discovery
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The North Sea
Peak to Peak - 27 years
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Russia
Peak to Peak 40 years
Fall of Soviets
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Production peaks follow discovery. (You have to
find it before you can produce it).
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Chris Skrebowski Petroleum Review
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Exaggerated OPEC Oil Reserves
Source BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
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World Production Stalls.
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No Spare Saudi Capacity
Source US EIA International Petroleum Monthly
Table 1.1, IEA Oil Market Report Table 3, Joint
Oil Data Initiative, OPEC Monthly Oil Market
Report, Table 17 (or similar) on OPEC Supply, Oil
and Gas Journal, and OPEC for quotas.
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And also

• Oil Prices are rising and are very volatile
• Geopolitical and climate risks
• Falling discovery

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Gas prices
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Indigenous Production Declines.
Source DTI Digest of UK Energy Statistics
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The Widening Gap
Source DTI
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Peak Gas?
UK Energy Review 2006
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Lord Browne - BP
the world isnt running out of oil next 30
years will be just as successful (as the last).
enormous scope for optimism. Speech to World
Petroleum Conference Sept. 05
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Exxon Mobil
4 New Saudi Arabias!
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When?
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The Hirsch Report

• ...the peaking of world oil production presents
  the US and the world with an unprecedented risk
  management problem. As peaking is approached,
  liquid fuel prices and price volatility will
  increase dramatically, and without timely
  mitigation, the economic, social and political
  costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation
  options exist on both the supply and demand
  sides, but to have substantial impact, they must
  be initiated more than a decade in advance of
  peaking (emphasis added)
• (Hirsch 2005).