2002 CUSTOMER MEETING

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2002 CUSTOMER MEETING

• Fire Weather Forecast Format Changes
• Red Flag Warning/Fire Weather Watch Product
• Fire Weather Statistics
• Interactive Forecast Preparation System
  (IFPS)the Future is Here!
• Here Comes El Nino.Now What?
• Round Table..Any Issues?

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Fire Weather Forecast Format

• When is the change?
• Tentatively November 30th 2002
• Why the change?
• Format consistency across the Nation

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Fire Weather Forecast Format

• What are the changes?
• Actual style
• New forecast elements
• RH trends
• Temperature trends
• Added forecast periods
• two more periods..afternoon issuance
• two more days to the extended forecast

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Fire Weather Forecast Format

• Advantages
• Extra forecast periods
• Ex. Forecast made Friday afternoon will cover the
  whole weekend with zone specific RH etc
• Product consistency
• Ex. Dispatcher from Oregon will easily be able to
  read New Mexico Fire Weather Forecast
• More forecast elements you want?
• RH/Temp trends..now more spelled out
• Mixing heights and transport winds for next day

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Fire Weather Forecast Format

• Disadvantages
• New format customers have to get used to
• Big change for New Mexico users..not so big for
  Arizona users
• Longer Product
• Is it tailored for Southwest Users
• Idaho-Montana Conference 2000
• product is flexible however with optional local
  elements

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Red Flag Warning/Fire Weather Watch Product

• Separate product
• Red Flag Warnings
• Fire Weather Watchs
• New header..RFW
• Get product on the internet
• Used for
• issuing, updating or canceling watch or warning
• Headlines indicating watchs or warnings will
  continue in the Fire Weather Forecast

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Red Flag Warning/Fire Weather Watch Product

• Advantages
• Product dedicated solely for watchs and
  warnings
• Disadvantages
• One more product to keep track of
• Cant combine Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather
  Watch
• need multiple versions stored on the internet for
  the separate issuance's

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Fire Weather Statistics

• Red Flag Warnings
• 2002
• Zones Warned 176
• Zones Occurred 144
• Zones Missed 66
• Zones Verified 127

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Fire Weather Statistics

• Red Flag Warnings
• 2002
• POD (probability of detection) 0.88
• FAR (false alarm rate) 0.28
• CSI (critical success index) 0.66

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Fire Weather Statistics

• Spot Forecast Requests
• 2002
• Number done 559 through October

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Fire Weather Forecast Zone Boundaries
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