Modeling the US Natural Gas Network

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Modeling the US Natural Gas Network

• James Ellison
• Sandia National Laboratories
• Critical Infrastructures Modeling and Simulation
  Group

• The National Infrastructure Simulation and
  Analysis Center (NISAC) is joint program at
  Sandia National Laboratories and Los Alamos
  National Laboratory, funded and managed by the
  Department of Homeland Securitys (DHS)
  Preparedness Directorate.
• Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by
  Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company for
  the United States Department of Energys National
  Nuclear Security Administration under contract
  DE-AC04-94AL85000.

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Natural Gas Sector

• Importance
• 24 of US energy consumption
• 17 of US power generation
• 30 of US industrial energy consumption
• Consumption 22 Tcf (trillion cubic feet)
• US Production 19 Tcf
• Imports 3 Tcf (mostly from Canada)

Source EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005. 2003
data.
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US Natural Gas Network
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US Natural Gas Network Flows
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Region-to-Region Pipeline Capacity
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Gas Network Dynamics

• Production constant
• Imports constant
• Transmission not completely constant, not
  completely seasonal
• Consumption seasonal
• Storage allows seasonal demand to be met

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US Consumption, Production, net Imports
Consumption
Net Imports
Production
Projection
Source EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2004
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Scenario A Base Case
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Scenario A Base Case
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Scenario B Gulf of Mexico Production Disruption
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Model Caveats

• Model does not take into account commercial
  contracts
• May therefore give a false sense of security
  (even in an emergency, may not be able to
  override contracts in place)
• Model does not take into account ownership of
  natural gas in storage
• Assumption that gas could be drawn out of storage
  in an emergency may not be accurate

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Conclusions

• Resilience of the modeled system to transmission
  disruption scenarios suggests US natural gas
  network robust
• Weakness of the infrastructure is that it is a
  closed system significant supply disruptions
  cannot be compensated for by increased imports
• Large swings in natural gas pricing due to supply
  disruptions are therefore likely