Gridded TAF Generation and the RLX Enhanced ShortTerm Forecasting Program

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Gridded TAF Generation and the RLX Enhanced
Short-Term Forecasting Program

• Chris Leonardi
• ER Sub-Regional Aviation Conference May 24, 2006

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State of the art West Virginia weather
forecasting!
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Outline

• Enhanced Short Term Forecasting
• Polices/procedures/philosophy
• Science/models
• Gridded aviation forecasting
• What, when, why, and how
• Pros/cons and lessons learned
• Stats
• Ongoing work

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Enhanced Short Term

• 12 Hour, High Detail, Deterministic, Hourly
  Grids
• Focus off text onto meteorology
• Full Automation of selected text products
• AFM, PFM, SFP, FWF
• 90 Automation primary text products
• ZFP, NWR ZFP, NOW
• Generated by schedule
• Forecaster/HMT reviews and sends

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Enhanced Short Term

• ZFP
• 4 times/day
• Low detail
• One County One Zone
• Standard 39 zones (out of 49)
• Run manually if deadline is missed or update
  desired

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Enhanced Short Term

• NWR ZFP
• Every 3HRs
• 3 HR detail first 12 hours
• 6 hour detail period 2 and 3
• 12 hour detail beyond period 3
• Maximum of 2 groups
• NOW
• One County One Zone, 12 hr forecast
• 3 hour detail from county perspective

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Enhanced Short Term

• Aviation incorporated in forecast process
• Aviation grids part of the short term
  forecasters suite
• Aviation grids (cloud height, visibility and
  ceiling) produced every 6 hours out to 30 hours
• Set of TAFs generated by AVNFPS from grids for
  each initial TAF release
• Individual TAFs monitored and amended by hand
  as needed

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Enhanced Short Term
PROS

• Customers have good detail for decision making
• A better warning service/advance notice in both
  space and time of specific threat areas
• With automation of text, more time to focus on,
  and provide, detail in the forecast
• Skill/verification improves with more focus on
  detail in short term
• Cost/Benefit ratio high with high detail
  forecasts
• Focus on the area in the forecast process where
  the technology and availability of the
  human/forecast resources of the NWS can enhance
  the information to the private sector for their
  use.
• Additional aviation services available with
  aviation grids

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Enhanced Short Term
CONS

• While a forecaster is working in a continual
  update/high detail mode, they are basically
  removed from other activities
• With high activity in the short term, there may
  be some detachment with the weather expected in
  the long term
• Collaboration more difficult in a continually
  updating forecast situation
• Forecasters rely more heavily on the
  observational/forecast data as well as
  technology. Failure becomes more critical
• Additional and collateral duties (ie training
  and focal point work) can not be done while
  working an enhanced short term operation

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SCIENCEForShort Term
MESONET CAPTURED ALL AVAILABLE DATA ADDED
RIDGETOP SITE AT NWR COORDINATED WV IFLOWS
MESONET 2 MET SENSOR SYSTEMS/COUNTY EXPANDED
LOCAL LAPS DOMAIN FOR IMPROVED LOCAL
MODELING INCREASED LAPS RESOLUTION - 5KM
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SCIENCEForShort Term
LOCAL SHORT RANGE MODELS/FCSTS WSETA
FORECAST EVERY 6 HOURS HOURLY OUT 18 HR, 5KM
RESOLUTION WRF FORECAST EVERY 3 HOURS HOURLY
OUT 24 HR, 5KM RESOLUTION HIGH LOW LEVEL LAYER
RESOLUTION RUNS ON BEOWULF CLUSTER INCLUDE
PBZ IN DOMAIN HOT START INITIALIZING ON
LAPS EVERY 2 HOURS IN SEVERE WX
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SCIENCEForShort Term

• OTHER OPERATIONAL SHORT RANGE MODELS
• LAMP HOURLY FORECASTS EVERY 3 HR
• RUC
• PARTICIPATING WITH MDL TESTING OF NEW MAV BASED
  LAMP (LAV)
• NCAR AVIATION FORECAST GRIDS (NCV)
• ALL MODEL DATA AVAILABLE IN GFE
• GFE 2.5 KM

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Typical Forecaster Shifts
10 forecasters Periods, not Desks
Y - Short Term Z - Long Term
Winter H - Short Term J - Extended/Extra K -
Mid Term Summer H - Short Term J -
Extended then Mid Term P Assist with
forecast/Extra/Convection Q - Short Term
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Percent of time First Period Forecast Within - 3
Degrees
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Why Aviation Grids?

• FAA wants increase in number of TAF locations
  grid generation could streamline process
• Point-and-click terminal/route forecasts
• Facilitate collaboration of aviation parameters
• Graphical area service in space and time to the
  centers

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Point-based aviation forecasts anywhere in CWA
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The new grids

• PredHgt conditional ceiling height in
  hundreds of feet (0-250)
• Ceiling if Sky 57, height of predominant cloud
  layer otherwise
• Collaboration gridalso used with Sky to
  construct CigHgt grid for web display
• Vsby visibility in miles (0-10)
• CigHgt ceiling height (in feet)
• Ceiling height if sky gt 57, otherwise no ceiling
• Generated as last step (totally dependent on
  Sky/PredHgt
• Source of web graphic

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Potential pitfalls

• Smoothing out of local effects in a gridded
  database
• Can be mitigated by improved smart tools, e.g.
  AviationFmFog, elevation-dependent tools
• Creation of new edit areas (rivers, individual
  TAF locations)
• Interpolation problems with PredHgt/Vsby
• Creative solutions can be found (NoBasesBetween,
  Extrapolate, use of edit area query)
• Tools that work over a time range
  (AviationFogTimer)

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General philosophy

• Be deterministic! Focus on what WILL be, not
  what COULD be
• TEMPOs (first 12 hours only) should be used for
  truly varying conditions, not to cover all
  possibilities
• Initial 12 hours are the most important and
  deserve the most attention/scrutiny
• 12-24 hours should capture major trends but not
  necessarily be as detailed (slosh it!)

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AvnFPS modifications

• Enable ingest of all aviation-relevant grids
• PredHgt, Sky, Vsby, Wx, Wind, WindGust
• Enable TAF formatting of gridded elements
• Cig/vis related TEMPOs, wind shear need to be
  added by hand
• Some local tweaks of grouping logic (grp_taf.cfg)

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Gridded TAF limitations

• Since we have only one grid for each element
• No TEMPOs for non-Wx related ceiling/visibility
  (yet!)
• Limited TEMPOs for Wx (PoP-based only)
• Only one cloud layer
• TAF formatting itself is not perfect
• Generation process a bit cumbersome
  (copy/paste)a bit less of this in 3.2

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Lessons Learned

• New paradigm tough to adjust to
• Areal thinking instead of point thinking
• Editing/interpolating grids can be frustrating
• Some resistance from forecasting staff
• Few real gridded guidance toolsalthough some are
  just getting going
• RUC/NAM grids for cig/vsby recently available
• NCAR NCV grids
• Verification performance may initially drop

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Aviation POD IFR
Goal 0.47
First fully operational month November 05
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Aviation FAR IFR
Goal 0.65
First fully operational month November 05
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Aviation POD vs FAR for IFR
FAR Goal
POD Goal
First fully operational month November 05
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March/April stats

• March 06 - POD 0.37, FAR 0.63 in 06
• March 05 - POD 0.40, FAR 0.60 in 05
• Comparable, but worse
• Aprilstats incomplete but not good
• What went wrong???
• Different weather regime (winter vs. summer)
• Tools we have work better in winter scenarios
• BUTwe are working on this!

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Coming soon

• TEMPO grids!
• First 6 hours only (PredHgtTempo, VsbyTempo)
• Meant to capture short-lived precip (especially
  convection)
• Automated generation where possible based on
  model data or forecaster updated grids
• Ingested into AvnFPS for TAFs

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New tools!

• Improved smart tools
• Extrapolate move features across domain
• LAPS radar ingest
• PoPs from WRF and consensus PoP from
  WRF/RUC/WsETA
• New model data
• Cig/vis data from RUC13
• Additional LAV runs (09Z, 21Z now, 03Z soon)
• Local statistical analysis (MOS-type approach)

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Severe Potential Grids

• Short-term convective threat grid (none, low,
  medium, high) based on model parameters

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AvnFPS 3.2 changes
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Questions?