The ReEngaged Generation 2004 and Beyond

1
The Re-Engaged Generation2004 and Beyond

• Peter Levine Ivan Frishberg
• Deputy Director New Voters Project/
• CIRCLE State PIRGs
• www.civicyouth.org www.pirg.org

2
Election 2004

• What Happened?

3
What Happened? Youth turnout was up
Youth turnout had been declining since the
1970sdown by about one third
Source Census, analyzed by CIRCLE
4
What Happened? Youth turnout was up

• There are two main sets of exit polls for 04.
• Both show substantial increases in youth turnout.
• For 18-24s, turnout was up either 5.3 or 10.8
  points to either 42 or 48
• Census data will be available in about six months

5
What Happened? Youth turnout was up

• Approximately 21 million votes were cast by 18-29
  year olds, and 10.5 million were cast by 18-24
  year olds, both up sharply from 2000.
• Greatest turnout since 1992 and probably since
  the mid-1970s

Based on exit polls and Census population data,
analyzed by CIRCLE
6
What Happened? Battleground vs. non-battleground
18-29s. Source exit polls, analyzed by CIRCLE
7
What Happened? Women and Men

• .

18-29s. Source exit polls, analyzed by CIRCLE
8
What Happened? Young voters were interested in
this election
Source MTV and MTV/CIRCLE polls
9
What happened? Young people were mobilized and
mobilized others
Of college students . 47and 57 of those who
attend college in a battleground statesaid they
were contacted by a political party during the
campaign 62 said that they had encouraged or
helped someone else to vote
Source Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)
10
What happened? Most college students were
permitted to vote
Source Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)
11
What happened? Youth supported Kerry
Source exit polls
12
What happened? Young peoples issue priorities
Source exit polls
13
What happened? Kerry/Bush vote by college major
(current college students. Source Niemi/Hanmer
survey funded by CIRCLE)
14
The Re-Engaged GenerationGen X vs. Gen Y

• They have different opinions than their
• older brothers and sisters.
• In comparing 1829 year olds to 3039 year olds,
  under 30s were
• more likely to identify as liberal by 12 points
• Less likely to call themselves conservative by 7
  points
• favored gay marriage by 16 points
• More likely to believe that government should do
  more to solve problems by 5 points.

15
Election 2004

• Why did it happen?

16
Why did it happen?This is NOT Generation X.

• They are different
• They voted.
• They paid more attention to election news than
  2000.
• UCLA reports that youth interest in politics is
  on the rise for the first time in two decades.
• Volunteering is up for young people. Over half
  volunteered in 2002.
• They watch less TV
• They are more trusting of government and more
  pro-government

17
Why did it happen?This is NOT Generation X.

• There are more of them
• They are more numerous.
• They have a much stronger generational identity
  

18
Why did it happen?Unprecedented efforts to reach
them.

• Investing time and money pays off in new voters.
• The six largest non-partisan youth vote
  organizations, spent 40 million dollars on the
  most comprehensive young voter mobilization
  campaign in history.
• The Republicans employed the National College
  Republicans, what many consider the nations
  strongest college organizing force.
• The Democrats channeled their donor dollars to
  527s, including the Young Voter Alliance and 21st
  Century Democrats.
• Overall trend to face to face grassroots contact
  has a greater impact on new voters.
• First youth targeted ad buys by a presidential
  campaign.

19
Iowa Case Study 4 Counties
20
Iowa Case Study 4 Counties
21
Iowa Case Study 4 Counties
22
Iowa Case Study 4 Counties
23
Why did it happen?The media paid attention.

• Data, research and a coordinated message
• were vital to changing the story.
• Coverage of youth voting was up 120 compared to
  2000.
• Coverage was more in-depth, focusing on tactics
  and the research.
• Coverage focused on the impact of young voters
  and their status as an up for grabs
  constituency.
• Coverage was cross-cutting in local newspaper,
  in major national newspapers, on television, and
  among the chattering class.
• But it was also easy to go negative Youth vote
  a bust.

24
Where do we go from here?

• Interest Attention Infrastructure

25
Where do we go from here?Capitalizing on 2004

• Organizers Thousands of young people were
  trained as grassroots organizers.
• Technology Every youth voting effort used
  technology to track and communicate with the
  young people they registered and mobilized.
• Political interest Candidates for the two 2005
  open governorships have placed college tuition
  affordability at the top of their election
  agendas.
• Issue Frame According to both USA Today and The
  Washington Post, the Presidents social security
  agenda is being framed as a generational issue to
  build a base of youth voters.
• President Bush just announced an 19.3 billion
  plan to increase Pell Grants.

26
Where do we go from here?Creating a political
constituency.

• Example Seniors vote and engage on issues. In
  turn, politicians pay attention, targeting them
  in campaigns and when making policy.
• Can we do the same for young people?

27
Where do we go from here? Creating a Political
Constituency

• Register more young people.
• Engage on issues.
• Mobilize young voters in 2005 and 2006 elections.
• Tell the story.