Human Population

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Human Population

• October 1, 2007

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Teams

• Bay Area
• San Francisco (15)
• Oakland (1)
• Berkeley (6)
• San Jose (5)
• Lafayette (11)

• Pacific Rim
• Alaska (7)
• HawaiI (13)
• Martinez (2)
• Sacramento (9)
• Sonoma (3)

• So Cal
• Los Angeles (8)
• San Diego (10)
• San Luis Obispo (4)
• Santa Barbara (14)
• Ventura (12)

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Teams

• Bay Area
• San Francisco Huskies
• Oakland Bombers
• Berkeley Bowlers
• San Jose Bush Babies
• Lafayette Diablos

• Pacific Rim
• Alaska Drillers
• Hawaii Treehuggers
• Martinez Muirs
• Sac Planetiers
• Sonoma Whiners

• So Cal
• LA Ducts
• SD Explorers
• SLO Moes
• Santa Barbara Green
• Ventura Squid

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10D Discussion
Mondays 1210 -1 ---1342 Storer Tuesdays 1210 -
1 ---211 Wellman Wednesdays 1000- 1050 ---
2120J Wickson
Discussion is NOT repeating content from
lecture. Discussion alternates between readings,
debates, and decision cases Topics will
generally follow lecture topics Schedule for next
week Week 1 Human population reading see
website
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Other groups and discussions

• Science and Society
• Career Discovery groups
• Honors Section
• Mondays 210-300 (today )
• Projects (1-3)
• Topics (ESA, Global warming, etc)
• Deliverables (paper, web site, presentation)

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A word about Environmental Science and Policy

• The Science
• Science is a way of understanding the world
  through setting up refutable, testable hypotheses
  about how things work
• Much of the science about the environment is very
  well established, and not the rate limiting
  factor for solving environmental problems
• Some of the science is incredibly complex or
  fraught with very high uncertainty.

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A word about Environmental Science and Policy

• The Policy
• Policy is the mechanism for mediating societal
  interests into rules that govern actions.
• Many of the policies for managing the
  environment, at least in this country, have been
  in place for 30 years.
• Applying, refining, and interpreting existing
  policies with respect to new problems is
  incredibly complex and often requires the court
  system.

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Example
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Human Population
10/2/2005
http//www-popexpo.ined.fr/eMain.html
Age people when you were born 30 3.93
billion 60 2.31 billion 40 3.20
billion 70 2.11 billion 50 2.66
billion 80 1.96 billion
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Current Population------
Roughly equivalent to
To place this in perspective
361,381 people born every day 152,460 people die
every day 208,921 people added to the heap every
day
Anaheim Pomona Fremont
AND, if population continued to double every 40
years
2045 13 billion 2085 26 billion 2125 52
billion 2165 104 billion
Whether or not human population can continue to
grow, do we want this?
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Population--Density
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The background for this problem arises from the
population crisis of Europe in the 18th and 19th
centuries (Industrial Revolution).
1729 A MODEST PROPOSAL FOR
PREVENTING THE CHILDREN OF POOR PEOPLE IN
IRELAND FROM BEING A BURDEN TO
THEIR PARENTS OR COUNTRY, AND
FOR MAKING THEM BENEFICIAL TO THE PUBLIC
I have been assured by a very knowing American
of my acquaintance in London, that a young
healthy child well nursed is at a year old a most
delicious, nourishing, and wholesome food,
whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled and I
make no doubt that it will equally serve in a
fricassee or a ragout.
Literature Swift and Dickens Politics
Malthus, Paine and Marx
Jonathan Swift (1667-1745)

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1998 UN Population Projections
The UN program to reduce population growth.
The UN, through the late 90s kept reducing the
time to population stabilization, and the level
of that predicted population. What factors drove
these reduced predictions?

• Higher mortality
• Lower fertility

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The Population Bomb
Paul Ehrlich, 1968
The United Nations
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4) Human Demography

• Demography - vital statistics about people, such
  as births and deaths
• Two demographic worlds
• Less-developed counties represent 80 of the
  world population, but more than 90 of projected
  growth
• Richer countries tend to have negative growth
  rates

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Fertility and Birth Rates

• Fecundity - physical ability to reproduce
• Fertility - the actual production of offspring
• Crude birth rate - number of births per year per
  thousand people
• Total fertility rate - number of children born to
  an average woman during her reproductive life
• Zero population growth (ZPG) - occurs when births
  immigration just equal deaths emigration

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What demographic factors predict population
growth?

• .
• .
• .
• .

Population age structure Total Fertility
Rate Age of first reproduction Mortality rate
(particularly juvenile mortality)
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The United Nations
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What social factors that help reduce population
growth?

• 1.
• 2.
• 3.
• 4.
• 5.

• Education
• Family Planning Opportunities
• Gender Equity
• Poverty alleviation
• Urbanization

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Countries
Contraception Prevalence
Fertility rate
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Decreasing poverty works
Statistical Interlude correlation causation
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The United Nations
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EnviroNews
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Ethanols Boom Stalling as Glut Depresses Price
EnviroNews
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100,000,000,000 / year 1 per person per day
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LA Times
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Dam Revives Aral Sea and Nearby Communities
                   by David Stern  October 1,
2007 In the former Soviet Republic of
Kazakhstan, government and Western officials
reverse what is considered one of mankind's
greatest ecological catastrophes the drying up
of the Aral Sea. A recently built dam is
restoring part of the sea once the world's
fourth-largest inland body of water and life to
its surrounding communities.