NAR Midyear Meetings

1
Marketing to Gen Next
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Senior Economist NATIONAL
ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
NAR Midyear Meetings Washington, D.C. May 18, 2007
2
Five Generational Groups to Watch

• Baby Boomers
• Young and Hip
• Retired and Hip
• Immigrants Aspirations
• International Vacationers

3
Live Births in the U.S.
Million
Baby Boomers
Echo Boomers Entering 20s
Source National Center for Health Statistics
4
Baby Boomers
5
U.S. Population Projection 2000 to 2050
milliion
2050
2000
Source U.S. Census
6
U.S. Population Growing but Not in Other
Countries 2000 to 2050
milliion
2000
2050
Source U.S. Census, Brugesgroup, The Economist
7
U.S. Population Groups
Echo Boom
Baby Boom
million
Pre-boom
Baby Bust
Source National Center for Health Statistics
8
Baby Boomers
million
Source Census
9
Household Wealth Accumulation (2004)
Median Net Worth in thousand
Source Federal Reserve
10
Aggregate Household Wealth
trillion
Source Federal Reserve
11
Vacation Home Sales
In thousand units
Source NAR
12
Young and Hip
13
Homeownership Rate By Age Groups

Source Census
14
Homeownership Rate Among the Young (Under 35
years old)

Source Census
15
Single Buyers
2005
2001
Source NAR
16
Downtown Resurgence?

• Downtown Population Trending Up (Examples from
  1990 to 2000)
• Houston up 69
• Seattle 67
• Chicago 51
• Denver 51
• Portland 35
• Cleveland 32
• Central cities holding up better than before
• 31 of 50 largest cities lost population in 1970s
• 22 of 50 largest cities lost population in 1980s
• 15 of 50 largest cities lost population in 1990s

17
Condo Share of Total Home Sales
Source NAR (only existing home sales)
18
Retired and Hip
19
Number of Persons 65
million
Source Census Bureau
20
Homeownership Rate Among the Retired(65 and
over)

Source Census
21
Baby Boomers want to retiree in
Source NAR
22
Which of the following statements about homes and
neighborhoods do you agree with?
that agree with statement
Source NAR, NAHB
23
Where Do Retirees Currently Live?
of total population

Source Census Bureau
24
Where Are Retirees Moving To?(Percent increase
in 65 population from 1990 to 2000)

Source Census Bureau
25
Immigrants Aspirations
26
Surging Immigration
million
Projected
Source Census Bureau, NAR Forecast
27
Foreign-Born Population on the Rise(1990 vs 2000)

2000
1980
Source U.S. Census
28
Immigrant Contribution to Overall Population
Growth(2003)
In 1,000s
Native contribution
Immigrant contribution
Source U.S. Census
29
Immigrant Homeownership Rate Rises over Time
(2000)

Years in the U.S.
Source U.S. Census
30
Homeownership Rate by Citizenship Status
Higher Rate for New Citizens
Source Census, Harvard Joint Center
31
Larger Housing Needs for Hispanic FamiliesFamily
households with 5 or more people(2003)

Source U.S. Census
32
Las Vegas vs BuffaloPayroll Employment (in 1000s)
Source NAR
33
Phoenix vs ClevelandPayroll Employment (in 1000s)
Source NAR
34
Orlando vs PittsburghPayroll Employment (in
1000s)
Source NAR
35
Minority Homeownership Rates(2006)

Source Census Bureau
36
Gains being Made for All GroupsPercentage Point
Gain in Homeownership Rate 1996-2006 ( point
change)
37
Plenty of Demand Support
Looking for Second Homes
Large Wealth Transfer To Younger Ones
Million
First-time Buyers
Trade Up Buyers
38
Changing Face of HousingFuture Homebuyers
Sellers

• During the next two decades, minorities will
  account for approximately two-thirds of household
  growth and half of all first-time homebuyers

Source Social Science Data Analysis Network NAR
Forecast
39
Diversity Shift
2000
2010
2020
Source Harvard Joint Center
40
Net Domestic Migration(2000 to 2006)
41
Total Population Increase(2000 to 2006)
42
International Vacationers
43
Expanding World Economy

Source World Bank
44
U.S. vs Foreign Currencies
Source Federal Reserve
45
International Buyer Trend in the U.S. vs. 5
years ago
46
Reason for Buying
Source NAR
47
Best EvidenceHousehold Wealth Accumulation
(1995 to 2004)
184,400
Median Net Worth
4,000
Source Federal Reserve
48
Marketing to Gen Next
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Senior Economist NATIONAL
ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
NAR Midyear Meetings Washington, D.C. May 18, 2007