DeSecularisation

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De-Secularisation

• The Demographic Imperative

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The Rise of Demography

• Demographic Transition Uneven
• Ethnic differentials have had political
  ramifications
• Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious
  makeover?
• Are religious populations more resistant to
  transition than secular?
• Is liberal democracy and mixed capitalism the
  'End of History' for mankind? (Fukuyama 1992)

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Religious Demography and Politics?

• Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts
  in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300
  A.D. (Stark)
• Mormon church same 40 percent growth in past
  century, widening fertility gap
• Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20th c. US
  ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12-point TFR
  advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election

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Secularisation and Religious Fertility

• "1. The publics of virtually all advanced
  industrial societies have been moving toward more
  secular orientations during the past fifty years.
  Nevertheless,
• 2. The world as a whole now has more people with
  traditional religious views than ever before--
  and they constitute a growing proportion of the
  world's population." (Inglehart Norris 2004)
• Which will dominate religious fertility or
  secularisation?

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Data

• Based on 1981, 1990 and 2000 EVS, and 2004 ESS
• 10 Western European countries, in fixed
  proportions. 4 Scandinavian-Protestant, 4 mainly
  Catholic, 2 mixed
• EVS-ESS continuity on children and attendance only

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Focus on 6 Early Secularizing Societies

• 5 Protestant Countries France (Vanguard of
  secularization)
• Crosstab 'Raised Religious?' and 'Are You
  Religious?' questions (EVS 1991) to find
  apostates/converts
• Generate figures on apostasy/conversion by 5-year
  age group and sex for input into projection

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Projection

• Uses People 3.0 software
• Cohort Component Projection
• Using Base Populations of Religious and
  Nonreligious for 6 Countries from the survey data
• Religious-Secular Fertility Gap of 1.8 v. 1.6
• Late fertility Pattern, Standard Mortality
• 'Migration' for each 5-year age group is given by
  net apostasy/conversion figure derived from 1991
  crosstabulation

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Projections Under Fertility Convergence and
Re-Secularisation Scenarios
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The Role of Immigration

• Immigrants to Europe have higher religiosity and
  higher fertility
• Fertility behaviour trends toward host mean over
  the generations
• Religiosity seems to decline much more slowly
  esp. for Muslims
• Immigration from Islamic sources will provide an
  increasing component of W. Europe's Population
• Austria assuming only 20k immigrants per year,
  projected to form 14-26 pc of population by 2051
  (Goujon, Skirbekk et al. 2006)

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• 'No Religion' will age due to decline in apostasy
  and low fertility
• Muslims will grow through immigration, fertility
  and religious retention
• Christians will stabilize due to higher
  fertility, female religiosity and declining
  apostasy

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Conclusion Secularisation

• In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries
  are secularising faster less religious (mainly
  Protestant) countries may have ceased to
  secularise
• Religious fertility will lead to end of
  secularizing trend c. 2045-55 in Protestant
  western Europe even without immigration
• Immigration, especially of Muslims, will greatly
  hasten and enhance the onset of de-secularization
• We may find that demography powers religious
  revival even though secularization thesis is
  valid

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Religiosity and Ideology, 1981-2000
R2 .071 N7534
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Political Implications

• An issue for the medium to longer term
• Religious are much more right-leaning
• Right-leaning voters vote for more conservative
  parties
• Partly depends on how conservative parties craft
  their cultural appeal
• Religious conservatism (USA) vs Nationalist
  conservatism (Europe?)

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Implications

• More conservative (American?) future for western
  Europe
• Growing ethno-religious conflict or growing
  religious v. secular conflict?
• Secularization integral to Enlightenment
  liberalism
• Is liberal democracy ('End of History') safe in
  the long run given the demography of religious v
  secular populations in a period of population
  decline

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Project Website

• http//www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html