Conditions Favorable for a Collaborative Process

1
Conditions Favorable for a Collaborative Process

• A Preliminary Assessment of Colorado River Delta
  Ecosystem Restoration
• Workshop 2.19.05

2
Conditions Favorable for a Collaborative Process

• No party has assurance of a much better deal
  elsewhere
• Future dealings between the parties likely
• A relative balance of power among the parties
• External Pressures to Reach Agreement
• Realistic Timetables
• Adequate Resources

• No Fundamental Rights or Values at Stake
• Potential Areas of Agreement, with Multiple
  Issues for Tradeoffs, exist
• Primary Parties are Identifiable Willing
• Each party has a legitimate spokesperson
• Deal Breakers are at the Table

3
The Parties

• Mexico
• Comision Nacional del Agua
• Comision Nacional de Areas Naturales Protegidas
• SEMARNAT
• Comision Estatal de Agua
• Direccion General de Ecologia
• SEFOA
• ProNatura
• Edith Santiago and Jesus Mosqueda.

• U.S.
• Bureau of Reclamation
• Fish and Wildlife Service
• Upper Colorado River Commission
• Colorado River Board of California
• IID, MWD, CVWD, PVID, LADWP, SDCWA, DWR, DFG
• Sonoran Institute
• Environmental Defense
• Defenders of Wildlife
• Pacific Institute

4
Primary Parties are Identifiable Willing

• Assumption 6
• Identifiable Yes
• Assumption 7
• Willing to do more Unclear

• Assumption 8
• Gainers from Change More likely to participate
• Assumption 9
• Gainers from Status Quo less likely

5
Each party has a legitimate spokesperson

• Assumption 10
• Most Likely no issues with the U.S. and Mexican
  federal, state and local agencies NGOs and with
  the upstream tribes.
• At least one spokesperson for the Delta residents
  is participating in the current process others
  would need to be identified.

6
Deal Breakers are at the Table

• Assumption 11
• Many, but not all, of the deal-breakers are at
  the table.
• Further deal-breaker analysis would need to be
  done.
• Who Else Needs to Be at the Table?
• Can block agreement
• Can block implementation

7
No party has assurance of a much better deal
elsewhere

• Assumption 12 The status quo is likely to be
  perceived by many upstream interests as a better
  alternative than any change.

• Assumption 13 Any Delta negotiations are likely
  to play out against the more complicated issues
  affecting U.S.-Mexican relations, including, but
  not limited to, other border water issues.

8
Future dealings between the parties are likely

• Assumption 14 The U.S. and Mexico will
  obviously have substantial future dealings with
  each other, as will many of the individual
  agencies and organizations.
• Its less clear what future dealings parties will
  have with Delta residents.

9
Relative balance of power among the parties
exists

• Assumption 15 Both Mexico and the United States
  have sufficient leverage points vis-à-vis each
  other to allow a meaningful negotiation on this
  issue.
• Assumption 16 At least on the U.S. side of the
  border, the urban and agricultural interests have
  sufficient leverage vis-à-vis each other to allow
  for a meaningful negotiation on this issue.
• Assumption 17 The environmental and social
  interests, including the specific interests of
  Delta residents, have had sufficient power to get
  the process started. At the start of the second
  Bush administration, it is not as clear yet that
  they have a sufficiently strong BATNA to move the
  negotiations forward very quickly.

10
There are External Pressures to Reach Agreement

• Assumption 18 The strongest external pressure
  to reach agreement is to preserve the habitat
  that has arisen as a result of the El Niño spills
  and the agricultural return flows.
• There are no other external pressures.

11
Realistic TimetablesExist

• Assumption 19 There are no timetables yet,
  realistic or otherwise.

12
Adequate Resources

• Assumption 20 Probably Not yet Some IBWC Staff
  Party time
• Academic NGO Support
• Some Research Modeling completed
• Data Gaps to be filled
• Solutions Need Development, Testing
  Implementation
• More Party time needed
• Process Support

13
No Fundamental Rights or Values are at Stake

• Assumption 1 So long as species or community
  survival is not at stake
• Assumption 2 High emotions will raise tensions
  and temper parties willingness to participate

14
Zone of Potential Agreement/Tradeoffs

• Assumption 3 Unclear ZOPA
• Assumption 4 If ZOPA, tradeoffs possible
• Assumption 5 If ZOPA, Law of River no obstacle