Electoral Reform Society Scotland

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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Lewis Baston,
Director of Research
Electoral Reform Society
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Scotlands STV elections, 3 May 2007 The
Results
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
More councils under no overall control
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Partly because STV does not create majorities on
small shares of the vote
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
But also because Labours share of the vote fell
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
A new kaleidoscope of governing arrangements
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Conservatives
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Labour
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Lib Dems
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
SNP
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Gains and losses of seats
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
How much support do we need for a seat?
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
How many quotas to elect 1?
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Running more candidates rather than fewer was
usually a successful strategy for parties
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
How many quotas to elect 2?
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Modes of election under STV, 2007
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland

• When voters had a candidate of the same party to
  transfer to, between 60 and 80 per cent did so.
• In other circumstances transfers flowed in many
  directions.

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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Distribution of an SNP surplus, Baillieston ward
Glasgow
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Labour voters choosing complete slate
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Green votes and seats
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Independents and others, 2003 and 2007
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
STV in Scotland contingently or really
proportional?
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Did the voters get what they wanted?
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Voters () choosing a winner, 2003 and 2007
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland

• Good but not perfect
• Ballot design (and order effects)
• Voter education
• Ward boundaries
• Ward size flexible? Larger?
• Council size
• Candidate strategy

Local elections one year on
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Electoral Reform Society Scotland
Lewis Baston
Director of Research
Lewis Baston