GV551 weeks 2223

1
GV-551 weeks 22-23

• Yeltsins foreign policy
• Putins foreign policy
• Regional concerns
• Caucuses and CIS (week 23)

2
Foreign Policy under Yeltsin

• During the peak of his strength Yeltsin full
  control over foreign policyno role for Duma
• Security Council
• US-Russian relations and strategic arms
  negotiations (START I II)
• Kozyrevs foreign policy (more conservative)
• Slowly whining powercontradictory policies
• Yeltsins legacy
• Erratic and incoherent foreign policy the first 3
  years structural, state, and individual levels
  of analysis
• 1994 speech mixture of harsh and conciliatory
  tones
• 1995 speech more mellow
• 1996 foreign policy not prominent

3
Foreign Policy under Yeltsin

• Structural (external factors)
• End of Cold War change in power status of Russia
• Geopolitical realities
• State level lack of coherent foreign policy
  institutions
• Power struggles among bureaucracies
• Security Council vs. Federal Council
• Unclear rules and institutionslack of
  coordination (Institutions do matter)
• unclear guidelines and division of labour between
  MFA and president
• Duma and FC right to ratify treaties
• Duma and FC attempts to use FP for domestic
  interests
• Issue of Russian identity
• Restructuring of state
• Individual level Yeltsins personality and
  popularity

4
Policy concerns under Yeltsin

• Ambivalence of foreign policy
• Identity in the case of Europe
• Power status in the case of US
• Issue of NATO and NATO expansion from
  partnership to uneasy relationship
• Former Yugoslavia
• Bilateral and Multilateral arms control treaties
• START I II
• ABM treaty

5
Main guidelines of Kozyrevs FP

• Departure from Gorbachevs New Thinking
• Democratic principles and peaceful policies (per
  democratic peace theory)
• No threat from other democracies
• Russia a great power with the following goals
• National security and sovereignty using peaceful
  means
• Building ties with other neighbours
• Failure of Kozyrevs policy
• Domestic struggles between conservatives
  (forceful security of southern borders) vs.
  liberals (Russian influence through regional
  institutions)

6
Primakov

• Signalling departure from West as an area of
  interest
• Main policy guidelines under Primakov
• Opposition to NATOs expansion into the former
  Eastern bloc
• But, he singed Foundation Act, ending Cold War
  hostilities
• Advocated multilateralism to counterbalance US
  global hegemony
• Low- cost mediation towards the Middle East and
  near abroad (Primakov doctrine)
• Promoted relations with China, India, and Iran to
  counterbalance the US
• Overall Russias national interests remain the
  same (enduring interests)
• Russia's first foreign policy objective must be
  to reverse Russia's internal decline
• Russian sphere of influence within the region
  (Differences over means rather than goals)
• Maintenance of Russia's nuclear superpower status

7
Putin and Ivanov

• Putin had a clean slate
• Background that guarantees respect from home and
  access to foreign resources and leaders
• Satisfy both Westernizers and Conservatives
• Rebuild consensus over the identity issue
• Eurocentrist but in a balancing way
• Putins targets
• Use democratization to his advantage build
  support by the population
• Promote consistent and strong leadership
• Depoliticize foreign policy (away from parties
  and domestic policies)
• Build consensus among multiple bureaucracies
• New doctrine under Putin

8
Putins doctrine

• Hardening of defence and security policy
• possibility "of using all forces and means at its
  disposal, including nuclear weapons, where all
  other means to settle the crisis have been
  exhausted or have proved ineffective."
• Focusing on economic interests, the rights of
  Russians abroad, and intelligence gathering
• Resolve territorial concerns

9
Putins goals

• Geopolitics and geoeconomics
• Economic revival as a condition for major power
  statusdifferent understanding of economics and
  trade
• Energy dependency of Europe used to be admitted
  in other policy areas
• Evolution of zero-sum gain thinking
• Issues of nuclear proliferation and transnational
  terrorism