JMSC6027: ChinaU.S. Relations

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• JMSC6027 China-U.S. Relations
• Thomas Hon Wing Polin,
• Journalism and Media Studies Centre, HKU
• March 26, 2003

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The Big Picture

• In the decades ahead, China-U.S. likely will be
  the worlds single most important bilateral
  relationship
• U.S. as the premier global power, China returning
  to its traditional status as Asias preeminent
  power
• Always a difficult relationship big differences
  in systems, culture, values

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Points of Friction (1)

• GEOPOLITICS
• Post-Soviet Union, Washington has viewed rapidly
  rising China as its chief potential
  competitor/adversary
• More explicitly under the Bush administration,
  which has internal reports openly identifying
  China as such
• Strategic partner becomes strategic
  competitor

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Points of Friction (2)

• Soon after taking office, Bush admin. quick to
  display a hostile face toward China Taiwan
  overtures, arms sales, Chen Shui-bian transit
  visit, culminating in Hainan spy plane incident
• 9-11 tempered the hostility but likely
  temporary
• In reality, this threat overstated. China is
  far behind U.S. militarily, economically and in
  terms of global (even Asian) influence

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Points of Friction (3)

• TAIWAN
• Always the No. 1 irritant in Sino-U.S. ties
• For China, Taiwan is THE major unresolved issue
  from the epic Civil War and Revolution nation
  unable to feel whole until reunification
  achieved
• For U.S., what started as commitment to old ally
  (ROC) has turned into a test of U.S. credibility

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Points of Friction (4)

• For U.S., Taiwan is also a powerful bargaining
  tool against Beijing and a lucrative source of
  arms sales
• Whatever the rights wrongs, U.S. involvement
  has helped ensure there hasnt been a military
  blow-up so far

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Points of Friction (5)

• WEAPONS PROLIFERATION
• A big issue under Clinton administration China
  allegedly selling arms and weapons know-how to
  Pakistan, North Korea, Iran
• Principle hard for China to accept U.S.,
  worlds biggest arms merchant, can sell to anyone
  it likes, while preventing Beijings much smaller
  sales to people U.S. doesnt like

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Points of Friction (6)

• Pakistan now a Bush administration ally of
  convenience, but N. Korea and Iran official,
  card-carrying members of Axis of Evil
• So flashpoint ahead Will Bush take on the other
  two, post-Iraq? Will China be dragged into any
  struggle/conflict?

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Points of Friction (7)

• HUMAN RIGHTS
• Always a sore point between U.S. and China
• Tiananmen, political dissidents, prison labor,
  Falungong, etc.
• Democratic administrations in U.S. tend to stress
  this more Republicans more concerned about
  business and geopolitical issues

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Points of Friction (8)

• TRADE
• Many disputes during the Clinton years over
  market-opening, IPR, annual MFN debate/debacle,
  etc.
• Many of these disputes resolved or tempered with
  Chinas WTO accession agreement
• New trade disputes likely to center on Chinas
  compliance with its WTO commitments

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Points Fostering Harmony (1)

• ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE
• For China, U.S. is main/major source of
  investment and exports. Also of technology
  (though limited by security restrictions) and
  know-how (students in U.S., JV transfers)
• For U.S., China is source of cheap but quality,
  competitive manufactures benefiting both U.S.
  multinationals and consumers

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Points Fostering Harmony (2)

• SECURITY COOPERATION
• Since 9-11, working together to fight terrorism.
  But cooperation not as focused as during
  1970s-80s, vs. Soviet Union
• Tempering, containing North Korea though
  in-built ambivalences
• Shoring up financial stability/security of Asia
  during 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis

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Points Fostering Harmony (3)

• EDUCATION
• Some 80,000 Chinese students in U.S.,
  predominantly at graduate and undergraduate
  levels. For U.S., China is now No. 1 source
  country of foreign students
• Chinese returnees play important roles in
  government, think-tanks and business

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Points Fostering Harmony (4)

• These returnees are a major force for reform and
  modernization (cf. Taiwan in 1980s and 90s)
• U.S. students in China rising by 3,000-plus a
  year about 60,000 total

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Issues (Stories) to Watch (1)

• For the longer term, a central issue
• Whos Big Brother in East Asia?
• China views East Asia as its natural sphere of
  influence just business as usual for millennia.
  Cf. Americas as U.S.s natural sphere of
  influence
• View from Beijing is that any U.S. dominance of
  East Asia is unnatural and temporary

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Issues (Stories) to Watch (2)

• So expect China, as a medium to long-term goal,
  to try to reassert its age-old position as the
  regions dominant power and civilization
• This, of course ? tensions with the U.S.
• For Asia, Chinas resurgence does not necessarily
  mean traditional hard-power dominance.
• Global convergence of standards and values,
  multilateralism, international cooperation all
  will work to make China a more benign Big
  Brother in the neighborhood

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Issues (Stories) to Watch (3)

• In the shorter term
• THE ECONOMY How fare U.S. investors in China,
  how U.S. corporates do in the China market after
  WTO opening up
• Also, Chinas growing exports to the U.S. Will
  endless expansion and ever-wider trade gap (now
  nearly 90b.) create political minefield and
  protectionist backlash?

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Issues (Stories) to Watch (4)

• NORTH KOREA After regime change in Iraq, will
  Bushies move on to NK?
• Growing impatience in Washington over perceived
  Chinese fence-sitting
• Some in Beijing whispering about Korean War II by
  summer
• Potentially, a king-sized headache for China
  and East Asia

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Issues (Stories) to Watch (5)

• TAIWAN After Iraq, will Bushies revert to their
  initial, reflexive hard line?
• Need for long-term cooperation vs. terrorism will
  probably temper the possibility
• HUMAN RIGHTS So far, issue has been low-key
  under Bush. But will rightwing forces within his
  Republican camp crank up the pressure?