Street Crime and the Economy

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Street Crime and the Economy

• Richard Rosenfeld
• University of Missouri-St. Louis
• August 10, 2009

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Background

• Crime and the economy not a hot spot of
  contemporary research, but that could be changing
• Unemployment rate not the right indicator other
  indicators better (GDP, consumer sentiment)a
• Crime and consumer sentiment
• a Arvenites and Defina (2006) Rosenfeld and
  Fornango (2007) Rosenfeld and Oliver (2008)

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r -.75
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Results of Recent Research

• Consumer sentiment robust predictor of robbery
  and property crime (Rosenfeld and Fornango 2007)
• Accounts for up to half of 1990s crime drop
• Much of the remainder a function of rising
  incarceration
• Effect of economy on violent crime largely
  indirect (Rosenfeld 2009)
• Consumer Property Violent
• Sentiment Crime Crime

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Logic Model

• Underground markets (demand for cheap goods)
  expand with downturn in formal economy property
  crime rises
• Street markets risky stateless locations
  violent crime rises

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Recent Research on the European Crime Drop

• As in U. S. European crime rates fell with
  economic expansion (Rosenfeld and Messner 2009)

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The Current Economic Crisis
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Building a Crime-Monitoring Infrastructure

• Few evident crime increases, but comprehensive
  crime information unavailable
• More timely crime data
• Systematic forecasts

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References

• Arvanites, Thomas M., and Robert H. Defina.
  2006. Business cycles and street crime.
  Criminology 44 139-164.
• Rosenfeld, Richard. 2009. Crime is the problem
  Homicide, acquisitive crime, and economic
  conditions. Journal of Quantitative Criminology
  (forthcoming).
• Rosenfeld, Richard and Robert Fornango. 2007.
  The impact of economic conditions on robbery and
  property crime The role of consumer sentiment.
  Criminology 45 735-769.
• Rosenfeld, Richard and Steven F. Messner. 2009.
  The crime drop in comparative perspective The
  impact of the economy and imprisonment on
  American and European burglary rates. British
  Journal of Sociology (forthcoming).
• Rosenfeld, Richard and Brian Oliver. 2008.
  Evaluating recent changes in homicide and robbery
  rates. Justice Research and Policy 10 49-65.