The Future of Work

1
The Future of Work
Globalization and the war for talent - how
to attract, retain and motivate the workforce we
need?
The Knowledge Economy - what skills will we
need and where will they come from?
Demographic changes - where will we find
our workforce how will it be different from now?
Technology - how will it affect how and
where we work?

2
The State of Play

• Europe new member impact
• North America draws breath
• Japan zeros-in elsewhere
• China wonders why everyone plays a short game
• Asia gets drawn like a magnet
• Australia/NZ region observes with interest

3
Macroeconomic Trends

• Worldwide and regional economic growth will
  continue to recover but slowly from 2001 levels
• Growth will take until 2006 to reach traditional
  levels
• There will be no double-dip recession
• World stock markets will continue to rise slowly
  from the depths of fall 2002 but with heavy
  trading and spikes up and down

Source IDC, US OF Commerce
4
Macroeconomic Trends

• Profit growth will continue to be mixed by
  industry and country though generally picking up
  in the United States and Japan
• Profit reporting from multinationals will
  overstate real profit growth because of the
  falling dollar
• In an age of IT complexity, growth will occur in
  markets that support simplification of technical
  environment
• Hiring will remain slow, but positive into Q3
  2005, though certain skills are in very high
  demand

Source IDC, US OF Commerce
5
Where are the people?Countries with gt50m in 2004
Source UN Population Division, 2000 Revision
6
Population Change to 2010 - millions

729
718
1299
1382
312
328
158
161
598
667
522
586
1374
1553
1132
1358
01
10
Source World Bank (2001)
7
Populations Ages all over the World
China
Mexico
Spain
Italy
2050
2000
USA
Japan
France
India
2050
2000
Source US Census Bureau, population growth by
age group and sex
8
Average population age international
comparisons
9
The 50 are concentrated in Asia 2000 and 2010
(millions)
128
109
143
128
111
87
683
62
55
506
Dev Asia
105
77
141
105

2000 2010
Source World Bank (2001)
10
Global Unemployment - overview
Source ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, 2003
11
Unemployment rates by region in 2003
Source ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, 2003
12
Only Urban Population will Grow
Millions
5000
4000
Urban
3000
Rural
2000
1000
0
2000
2010
2020
Source UN Population Forecast, 2001 revision
13
Work is migrating from Industrialised Countries
to all Continents
Source Business Week, 3 Feb 03 Cover Story
14
Hourly Labour Costs in Manufacturing
2001 24.0 22.0 19.9 16.3 15.8 15.4 14.6 10.8
8.1 3.3 0.8 0.5
2004 29.1 19.0 21.6 20.1 19.5 18.8 17.2 13.8
9.9 5.2 1.0 0.6
West Germany Japan United States France UK East
Germany Italy Spain Korea Czech
Republic India China
Source Oxford Economic Forecasting
15
OK lets get to the bottom of the debate(on
off-shoring) The Example of America

• Off-shoring is often confused with domestic
  outsourcing
• In 2003/4 US companies invested 2.5 trillion in
  the US economy and only 280 billion abroad
• The changing of sourcing channels has been going
  on for years as part of the normal maturation
  process of industry
• Most US investments abroad are about proximity
  economics
• US manufacturing is the most productive in the
  world, having transformed from vertically
  integrated production structures to highly
  fragmented ones

16
OK lets get to the bottom of the debate(on
off-shoring) The Example of America

• Productivity increases are responsible for job
  losses 25 years ago GM needed 454,000 workers
  to build 5 million cars and trucks today it
  takes 118,000
• Worldwide sourcing accounts for only a small part
  of job losses the bulk of lost jobs have gone
  to a country called PRODUCTIVITY
• Since 1995 the US has lost 11 of its
  manufacturing jobs and China 15
• And for service jobs in 70 of cases sourcing
  is not a factor due to the face-to-face contact
  or specialization of the work

17
Impact of Technology on Occupations Skills

• Growth in demand for scientists, engineers,
  technicians, computer specialists, biochemists,
  biologists, call centre operators etc.
• Two scenarios
• Technology replacing humans, even in labour
  intensive industries like the service sector
• Technology creating new types of occupations or
  transforming existing - presence managers, swarm
  spotters and creators, knowledge posters and
  linkers, workplace hosts

• Managing information work in different domains
• Managing just-in-time social interactions
• Ability to catalyze swarms/smart mobs
• Making public spaces personal and vice versa
• Communicating presence in different settings and
  media
• Managing attention your own and others

18
Boundaries are blurring
temporary
permanent

• freedom
• variety of work
• flexibility of hours
• learning/experience

security career development social
interaction continuity of employment career path
19
temporary
permanent

• freedom
• variety of work
• flexibility of hours
• learning/experience

Security career development social
interaction continuity of employment career path
20
Flexible workforces are not a luxury, they are
mandatory
21
Science And Engineering Ph.D. Degrees
By 2010, if current trends continue, over 90 of
all physical scientists and engineers in the
world will be Asians working in Asia
18,000
16,000
14,000
All nationalities in U.S. Institutions
12,000
10,000
8,000
U.S. citizens in U.S. Institutions
6,000
4,000
Asians in U.S. Institutions
2,000
0
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
22
New regulations will have a major impact
on re-shaping  industries and the labour market
Examples

• International Trade negotiations will open and
  close entire domains of global exchanges e.g. in
  agriculture and services
• Domestic deregulations will generally expose yet
  protected workers e.g. privatization, opening
  sectors to competition
• Regional and national subsidies will distort
  geographic allocation of resources
• Terrorism, Epidemic fears, immigration issues
  will translate into regulations and disturb
  movement of people

23
New regulations will have a major impact
on re-shaping  industries and the labour market
Examples

• Privacy laws will hinder flows of information and
  capabilities to offshore activities
• Social and labour laws will protect some
  minorities,could harm others
• Corporate and individual fiscal policies,
  especially linked to budget issues related to
  ageing and health costs, will distort competition
  across markets
• Sustainable development will lead to new
  regulations, forcing some industries to move
  geographies