Traps and Legacies

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(No Transcript)
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The traps and legacies
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In the early years

• The AIDS industry catalysed and diverted people,
  resources and institutions from other development
  initiatives
• AIDS policy focused on treatment and on
  individual behaviour, rather than on the context
• HIV and AIDS was isolated from the root context,
  or sometimes just seen as a medical problem

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Fragmented..

• lack of agreement and co-ordination between
  countries
• Many infrastructures were incapable to obtain or
  exploit the funds
• Until 2010, only few isolated governments
  succesfully asserted their interest in the
  international community

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The whirlpool gains momentum

• Short term response
• Attemps to stop spill-over effects are
  insufficient
• Fatalism grows
• Negative masculine behaviours are reinforced
• Other global concerns and regional crises
  diverted resources from Africa

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Growing divides, depletion

• Too few winners (mineral economies, élites)...and
  many losers
• Communities, women, PLWHA continuing to bearing
  the brunt..
• collapse of memory and indequate transmission of
  values and social meanings..

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Few countries free of problems..
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and increasing spill over effects

• National instability and fragmentation dominated
  in many countries
• Humanitarian crises and displacement, but also
  commercial trade corridors and peacekeeping
  activities were the spillovers of HIV and AIDS
  between the countries

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Increasing poverty
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Drifting further away

• We failed tackling HIV and AIDS, addressing only
  symptoms and mostly ignoring the causes
• Prevalence same as twenty years ago
• More resources needed just to stand still

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83 million deaths.

• 40 million people living with HIV and AIDS
• 4 million new infections in 2025
• 1-in-5 of those in need on ART
• 27 million orphans from HIV and AIDS

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How do the driving forces play out?
Unity fragmentation and contestation
Power widespread legitimacy and shared
Beliefs intolerance and conflicting values
Knowledge Effectively developed and shared
Resources fragmented and under-resourced
Resources coordinated and sustained
Knowledge competing priorities and limited
sharing
Beliefs respect and tolerance
Power coercive and self-interested
Unity cohesion and solidarity
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How do the driving forces play out?
Unity fragmentation and contestation
Power widespread legitimacy and shared
Beliefs intolerance and conflicting values
Knowledge Effectively developed and shared
Resources fragmented and under-resourced
Resources coordinated and sustained
Knowledge competing priorities and limited
sharing
Beliefs respect and tolerance
Power coercive and self-interested
Unity cohesion and solidarity
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Prevalence refuses to go down
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The number of orphans and vulnerable children
grows relentlessly
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Treatment for the few
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The US 70 billion price tag
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Treatment takes the lion share
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Living with death
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Write the story of your actor in this future
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Keywords? Signals? Implications?
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Engagement and discussion
Please discuss the following for the next 25 mins
and be prepared to feedback up to three points on
each item

• what are the key words/phrases you would use to
  describe the scenarios? (5 minute brainstorm)
• what signals (events/circumstances) are
  unfolding/happening today that imply
  this scenario might be coming about? (5 minute
  brainstorm)
• Imagine this scenario is coming true, if you
  think about the Bank's strategies on HIV/AIDS
  what are the implications in this scenario? (15
  mins)