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Figure 4'2

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4.1.11 Example 5- WARRAN BUFFET'S MIRACLE. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY-No dividend ... Suppose you need $10,000 in one year for the down payment (??) on a new car. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Figure 4'2


1
Figure 4.2
2
4.1.5 Calculator Keys
  • Texas Instruments BA-II Plus
  • FV future value
  • PV present value
  • I/Y period interest rate
  • Interest is entered as a percent, not a decimal
  • P/Ypayment per year
  • C/Ycompounding period per year
  • N number of periods
  • Remember to clear the registers (CE/C)(2ND) (CLR
    TVM) before solving each problem
  • Other calculators are similar in format

3
4.1.6 Settings
  • Decimal (2)
  • (2ND) (FORMAT) (2 OR 4) (ENTER)
  • P/Y (Payments per year) 1
  • C/Y (Compounding periods per year) 1
  • (2ND) (P/Y) (1) (ENTER) (shift DOWN)
    (1)(ENTER)
  • END-OF-PERIOD
  • (2ND)(BGN)(2ND)(SET)(CE/C)
  • How to avoid mistakes in using the calculator(P94)

4
4.1.7 Example 1 (on P93)
  • -100 (key in 100 and key in /-) PV
  • 5 N
  • 10 (decimal) I/Y
  • CPT FV
  • Got FV 161.05

5
4.1.8 Future Values Example 2
  • Suppose you invest the 1000 at 5 for 5 years.
    How much would you have at maturity?
  • FV 1000(1.05)5 1276.28
  • The effect of compounding is small for a small
    number of periods, but increases as the number of
    periods increases.
  • Simple interest would have a future value of
    1250 (1000 (10.055) 1250), for a difference
    of 26.28

6
4.1.9 Future Values Example 3
  • Suppose you had a deposit 10 at 5.5 interest
    200 years ago. How much would the investment be
    worth today?
  • FV 10(1.055)200 447,189.84
  • What is the effect of compounding?
  • Simple interest 10(1 2000.055) 120.00
  • Compounding added 447,069.84 to the value of the
    investment

7
4.1.10 Example 4-the value of Manhattan
  • The deal of for Manhanttan (P92)
  • In 1626, Peter Minuit bought Manhattan Island for
    USD24 in goods and trinkets(???? ). Is it a good
    deal to Peter?
  • Suppose Peter invested USD24 at 8, what is the
    value at 2006 (total 380 years)?

8
4.1.10 Example 4-the value of Manhattan
Work it with calculator, N380, I/Y8, PV-24,
CPT FV we get the same result.
9
4.1.10 Example 4-the value of Manhattan
  • 8 is too high, what about 5?
  • N5
  • FV27.05? ?!

10
4.1.11 Example 5- WARRAN BUFFETS MIRACLE
  • http//cn.finance.yahoo.com/q?sBRKA

11
????? 83,350.00 ???? 2009?3?19? ?? 1,150.00
(1.40) ???? 82,200.00 ?? 83,500.00 ?? ?
?? ? ?????? 92,500.00 ?????? 81,700.00
- 84,850.00 52????? 78,800.00 - 92,000.00 ???
1,453 ?????(3??) 48,578.1 ?? 1,294.43?
???(12??) 25.85 ????(12??) 3,224.10 ?????
N/A ()
12
4.1.11 Example 5- WARRAN BUFFETS MIRACLE
  • BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY-No dividend payout all the
    years.
  • Share price in 1965 19
  • Share price in 2009? 83350
  • What is the compounding interest rate through the
    years(44 years)?

13
4.1.11 The growth rate of Birkshere Hathaway
  • (CE/C)(2ND) (CLR TVM)
  • -19 PV
  • 44 N
  • 83350 FV
  • (2ND) P/Y 1 ENTER C/Y 1 ENTER
  • CPT I/Y
  • 20.9974

12
14
4.1.11 Example 5- WARRAN BUFFETS MIRACLE
  • Simple interest
  • If BIRKSHIRE HATHAWAY had paid out all its profit
    every year to the shareholders, what is the total
    value which the shareholders received (suppose
    the shareholder had hold 1 share and sold in
    2006)
  • 19(10.2144)194.56

15
????????????
  • ?????????????????????
  • ???,1850 ???,????????????60 ??????,???6??????,?1
    50 ??????,???????????30 ??????? ???
    ????

16
????????????
  • ??????,????,?????????????????????????????????100?
    ??,??????18?,16???????(???)??? ??? ????
  • ???????!

17
????????????
  • ???????,?????????????????,????????????????

18
4.2 Present Values ??
  • How much do I have to invest today to have some
    amount in the future?
  • FV PV(1 r)t
  • Rearrange to solve for PV FV / (1 r)t
  • When we talk about discounting, we mean finding
    the present value of some future amount.
  • When we talk about the value of something, we
    are talking about the present value unless we
    specifically indicate that we want the future
    value.

19
4.2.1 Present value ??
  • Discounting factor

20
4.2.2 PV One Period Example
  • Suppose you need 10,000 in one year for the down
    payment (??) on a new car. If you can earn 7
    annually, how much do you need to invest today?
  • PV 10,000 / (1.07)1 9345.79
  • Calculator
  • 1 N
  • 7 I/Y
  • 10,000 FV
  • CPT PV -9345.79

21
4.2.3 Present Values Example 2
  • You want to begin saving for you daughters
    college education and you estimate that she will
    need 150,000 in 17 years. If you feel confident
    that you can earn 8 per year, how much do you
    need to invest today?
  • PV 150,000 / (1.08)17 40,540.34

22
4.2.4 Present Values Example 3
  • Your parents set up a trust fund for you 10 years
    ago that is now worth 19,671.51. If the fund
    earned 7 per year, how much did your parents
    invest?
  • PV 19,671.51 / (1.07)10 10,000

23
4.2.5 PV Important Relationship I
  • For a given interest rate the longer the time
    period, the lower the present value
  • What is the present value of 500 to be received
    in 5 years? 10 years? The discount rate is 10
  • 5 years PV 500 / (1.1)5 310.46
  • 10 years PV 500 / (1.1)10 192.77

24
4.2.6 PV Important Relationship II
  • For a given time period the higher the interest
    rate, the smaller the present value
  • What is the present value of 500 received in 5
    years if the interest rate is 10? 15?
  • Rate 10 PV 500 / (1.1)5 310.46
  • Rate 15 PV 500 / (1.15)5 248.58

25
Figure 4.3
26
4.3.1 The Basic PV Equation - Refresher
  • PV FV / (1 r)t
  • There are four parts to this equation
  • PV, FV, r and t
  • If we know any three, we can solve for the fourth
  • If you are using a financial calculator, be sure
    and remember the sign convention (????),e.g.
    (/-) or you will receive an error when solving
    for r or t

27
4.3.2 Discount Rate
  • Often we will want to know what the implied
    interest rate is in an investment
  • Rearrange the basic PV equation and solve for r
  • FV PV(1 r)t
  • r (FV / PV)1/t 1
  • If you are using formulas, you will want to make
    use of both the yx and the 1/x keys

28
4.3.3 Discount Rate Example 1
  • You are looking at an investment that will pay
    1200 in 5 years if you invest 1000 today. What
    is the implied rate of interest?
  • r (1200 / 1000)1/5 1 .03714 3.714
  • Calculator the sign convention matters!!!
  • N 5
  • PV -1000 (you pay 1000 today)
  • FV 1200 (you receive 1200 in 5 years)
  • CPT I/Y 3.714

29
4.3.4 Discount Rate Example 2
  • Suppose you are offered an investment that will
    allow you to double your money in 6 years. You
    have 10,000 to invest. What is the implied rate
    of interest?
  • r (20,000 / 10,000)1/6 1 .122462 12.25
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