ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF REDUCING RISK IN TOURISM: based on ECLACs disaster assessment

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ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF REDUCING RISK IN TOURISM
based on ECLACs disaster assessment

• ECLAC Subregional Headquarters in Mexico, 18-22
  June 2007

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WHAT IS ECLACs methodology

• Tool to quantify the social, economic and
  environmental impact of disasters
• Multi-sectorial and multi-disciplinary Method to
  assess and quantify damage in disaster-affected
  areas
• Standard procedures sector by sector to make
  results comparable among themselves
• Instrument for decision-making and policy
  formulation by identifying the most affected
  sectors, geographical areas and groups in the
  population
• Conceptual progress in terms of ways of measuring
  elements not included in national accounting and
  specific vulnerability (of groups in the
  population, such as women, and in the environment)

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WHAT the methodology DOES

• Makes it possible to determine the future
  behaviour of the affected economy in the near
  future, and thus adopt corrective measures in
  terms of economic policy
• Makes it feasible to determine the capacity of a
  State to face the tasks of rebuilding and to
  determine the support and international financing
  required
• Allows training in damage assessment and
  formulation of mitigation strategies Involves
  the affected population with responsible and
  cooperative authorities
• Makes evident the systematic nature of
  development and the interaction among sectors and
  actors

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Classification of threats VOLCANIC ,
SEISMIC TROPICAL STORMS
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Caribbean Hurricanes 2005
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BREAKING THE VICIOUS CYCLE OF DISASTERSAdapted
from Mora, The impact of disasters, social,
political, economic, environmental aspects and
their relationship to the development of our
countries (BID, 1999)
DEGREE OF DAMAGE DECREASES (vulnerability)
AVOID IMPROVISATION
POST-DISASTER
DISASTER
DESASTRE
STABILIZATION- RECOVERY

EXPERIENCE NOT FORGOTTEN AND MITIGATION CARRIED
OUT
EXPERIENCE IS DOCUMENTED AND ASSESSED
FOCUSSED PLANNING TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY
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How risk is defined, generated and handled

• Risk as a complex formula of danger (threat) and
  existing infrastructure
• Human intervention generates (increases,
  decreases or spreads) risk
• Risk is suffered by society collectively at
  different levels of damage, loss and need
• Risk is generally handled in good measure by the
  state
• We are all affected and are all responsible for
  reducing risk

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Risk management and adaptation (for disasters,
climate change)
Damage, loss and cost
THREATS Basal information modified by
change and variability
RISK Multiple threats tensions Severe
effects aggravated by vulnerability and changes
that alter threat patterns
MANAGEMENT, TRANSFER AND REDUCTION MITIGATION A
DAPTATION EVOLUTION
VULNERABILITY Diversity specific, local,
sectorial
RESILIENCE
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METHODOLOGY OF SECTORIAL ASSESSMENT
Productive Sectors Goods agriculture,
industry Services trade, tourism, banking, etc.
Social Sectors Housing Health Education,
culture, sports
Global Impact On the environment Gender
perspective Employment and Social
conditions Macroeconomic assessment
Infrastructure Transportation
communication Energy Water and sanitation
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The temporary evolution of disasters
Needs for recovery (close the gap between
rapid response And recovery to avoid loss)
Emergency needs
Full reconstruction and economic recovery
Damage
5 years
Loss
Time, months
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Post-disaster recovery
Reconstruction Development
Plans Programs
Emergency and response
Needs assessment
NEEDS
Data, information
NEEDS
NEEDS
AFTER
EMERGENCY
BEFORE
Reconstruction strategy (financial gaps) 2-3
months
Emergency request (Flash appeal) 3-7 days
Local specific community 2 weeks
Recovery framework Request to donors 1 month
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Disasters and environmental heritage

• In light of the difficulty in evaluating the
  natural heritage or environmental heritage
• Assess environmental services with economic
  effect from CO2 capture to water retention,
  landscape and hedonic contribution to tourism and
  risk reduction
• Economic inclusion of public goods in the market

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Evaluation of cultural heritage in disasters

• Use of alternative evaluation
• The values of use and non-use
• Economic income generated and the price that the
  user is prepared to pay
• Value associated with other goods and services in
  the market
• In tourism
• In education
• In preservation of the cultural and religious
  identity of communities

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Tourism
Damage to tourist infrastructure
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Tourism
Damage to beaches in tourist areas
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Damage in the Tourism Sector

• Damage
• Cost of repair or rebuilding tourist
  infrastructure Cost of repair or replacement of
  furniture and tourist furnishingsDamage to
  beaches and other tourist sites
• Loss
• Temporary reduction in occupancy at hotels and in
  the income of companies Negative effect on other
  related sectors Cancellation of future
  reservations, cost, promotion campaignsUnemployme
  ntDifferential impact on women

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Belize Impact of Hurricane Keith on Tourism
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The economic importance of tourism case of the
Dominican Republic

• The tourist sector is one of the most important
  and dynamic in the Dominican economy. In 2003 it
  accounted for 8 of the GDP compared to 3.8 in
  1990, and in 2007
• The number of visitors has doubled from 1,608,000
  in 1993 to 3,282,000 in 2003 and in 2007
• Room occupancy rose from 26,801 rooms in 1993 to
  57,059 in 2004 and in 2007
• Fragility and vulnerability associated with
  geographic (Punta Cana) and thematic
  concentration (sun and sand)

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The effect of disasters in the Dominican
Republic lessons to bear in mind

• The Sammy Sosa effect (Hurricane Georges)
• The difference between damage and loss (Jeanne)
• Environmental loss and the value of tourist
  services (competitiveness and sustainability)
• The tension between sustainability and high
  profitability in the short term
• Image vs. content (what I offer and why Im paid)
• Social interest policies and profitability of
  investment (sector earnings and internalization /
  externalization of benefits and risks)

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Images and statistics for Jeanne
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The shock wave of the disaster
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Risk Management at all levels

• Save lives and protect infrastructure
• Save macroeconomic balance
• Face vulnerability of small, less diversified and
  more vulnerable economies
• Protect resources of the most vulnerable social
  groups
• Protect the social fabric and economic activity

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Need for policies and regulations

• It is not evident (correct??) that neither the
  market nor public planning value prevention,
  mitigation and risk management
• The state must be responsible for promotion and
  regulation in light of risks
• Reinforce and ensure implementation of
  regulations on
• Human settlements and land use
• Building codes
• Responsibility for risk generated by investment
• Penalties for risk generated or not dealt with

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Thank you

• Please view
• http//www.cepal.org/mexico disasters(Manual on
  evaluation of socioeconomic and environmental
  impact (www.cepal.org/mexico, disasters,
  disasters and development (publication from
  ECLAC 2005 series, and several evaluations of
  disasters from 1970 to 2007
• http//groups.google.ch/groups/pdna-for-recovery
  (materials, methodologies and instruments towards
  a comprehensive assessment platform for
  post-disaster needs, PDNA)
• http//www.isdr.org (international platform for
  disaster reduction, Hyogo framework for action)
• http//www.wmo.org/ipcc (4a. Assessment of the
  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ch.7
  Industry, Settlements and Society)