Presidential Debate

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Presidential Debate George W. Bush - John
Kerry September 30, 2004
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Memorable Lines /or Moments?
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Presidential Debate, September 30, 2004
Number of Viewers 62.5 million Nielsen Media
Research (Newsweek Poll suggests that 74 of
registered voters watched)
Super Bowl Viewers 89.8 million
Words spoken Kerry Bush 7,215 6,136
Grade level of arguments Kerry Bush (using
standard tests of words and sentences,
Dictionary.com) 7.3 6.8
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Who says What to Whom through which Channel in
what Way with what Effect?
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The Communication Process
WHO
Attributes of the source, ie. credibility
says WHAT
The content of the message levels of
meaning Substance Style Issue Image
to WHOM
The target audience Differential Selective
Perception Closure
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The Communication Process
WHO
Attributes of the source, ie. credibility
The content of the message levels of
meaning Substance Style Issue Image
says WHAT
to WHOM
The target audience Differential selective
Perception The Popeye Effect
Formal mass media Informal interpersonal
through which CHANNEL
in what WAY
Rhetorical Strategy Logic, Emotion Expressions
given-off
with what EFFECT?
Activation, Crystallization, Reinforcement
Conversion
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WHO Credibility
WHAT Issue vs. Image
WHOM Target Audience
WAY Rhetorical Strategy
CHANNEL Audio, Visual, Interpersonal
Effects Activation Crystallization Reinforcement C
onversion
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Who Whom Sources Target Audiences
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Who - Social Statuses
President
Evangelical Christian
Oil Executive
National Guardsman
Republican
Conservative
Upper Class
Husband
College Graduate Yale
Male
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Father
White
Hunter/ Sportsman
Husband
Upper Class
College Graduate Yale
Father
60
Male
White
Hunter/ Sportsman
Senator
Democrat
Vietnam Veteran
Prosecutor
Devout Catholic
Liberal
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Mike Lane, Baltimore, Maryland, The Baltimore Sun
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Public Opinion Polls Status-sets
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Undecided Persuadable Voters In Battleground -
Swing States National Annenberg Election Survey
Gender Men 46 Women 54
Attend Religious Services Once a week or
more 33 Once or twice a month 15 Few times a
year/Never 51
Ethnicity White 86 Black 6 Latino 9
Education High School or less 54 Some
College 25 College Degree or more 21
Age 18-44 56 45 and older 44
This poll of 832 persuadable voters has a
margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage
points.
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Caveats (Warnings) caveat emptor let the buyer
beware
No survey/opinion poll is 100 accurate. Although
representative samples are used, there is
always a margin of error. Be certain to find it
and take it seriously.
Surveys and opinion polls are typically
successive freeze-frame snap-shots of fluid,
dynamic, and changing social realities that pose
the same questions to different groups of people
at different times.
Similar results might mask movement across
categories.
Most instant polls are practically useless
Panel Studies
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Respondents were asked to rate George W. Bush and
John Kerry on each trait using a scale of zero to
ten. The following data represents the percentage
of people ranking Bush higher, Kerry higher, or
both equal.
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Respondents were asked to rate George W. Bush and
John Kerry on each trait using a scale of zero to
ten. The following data represents the percentage
of people ranking Bush higher, Kerry higher, or
both equal.
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Respondents were asked to rate George W. Bush and
John Kerry on each trait using a scale of zero to
ten. The following data represents the percentage
of people ranking Bush higher, Kerry higher, or
both equal.
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Respondents were asked to rate George W. Bush and
John Kerry on each trait using a scale of zero to
ten. The following data represents the percentage
of people ranking Bush higher, Kerry higher, or
both equal.
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"For every human problem, there is a neat,
simple solution
and it is wrong.
H.L. Mencken (1880 - 1956) journalist, editor,
critic
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Voters Have Much to Learn from the
Debates National Annenberg Election
Survey September 29, 2004
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What Issue Image Substance Style
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Fact Checks
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but
not their own facts."  
Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Sociologist Former
Senator from New York, 1927 - 2003
FactCheck.org - Annenberg Political Fact Check
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I'll never give a veto to any country over our
security. (Contained in Kerrys answer to the
first question of the debate.)
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Content Analysis Are the Candidates on message?
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Presidential Debate, September 30, 2004 Content
Analysis
Bush and Kerry War and Peace
Bush Kerry
War on terror 11 7
Terrorists 10 13
Weapons of Mass Destruction 11 19
Threats 11 7
Saddam Hussein 14 12
Osama bin Laden 5 9
Al Qaida 6 2
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Presidential Debate, September 30, 2004 Content
Analysis
Bush and Kerry War and Peace
Bush Kerry
Hard Work, decisions, choices 23 0
War as last resort 1 6
Alliances 6 8
Protect 12 4
Safe Secure, more peaceful 12 7
September the 11th 9/11 5 4
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Presidential Debate, September 30, 2004 Content
Analysis
Bush Kerry
Free Iraq 12 0
Free Afghanistan 5 0
Freedom 11 4
Free 10 0
TOTAL 38 4

making progress 3 0
world is better off 4 0
TOTAL 7 0
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Presidential Debate, September 30, 2004 Content
Analysis
Bush and Kerry War and Peace
Bush Kerry
Win the peace, sustain the peace 0 7
Keep, want, sought peace 5 0
Plan 8 17
Better plan, way, choice 10 15
Mistake, wrong 6 16
Smarter 0 3
Truth 1 4
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Presidential Debate, September 30, 2004 Content
Analysis
Bush and Kerry War and Peace
Bush Kerry
Wrong war at the wrong place at the wrong time 7 0
Wrong signals 3 0
Mixed signals 3 0
Mixed messages 6 3

TOTAL 19 3



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What Way President Bush Expressions-given-off R
hetorical Strategy Heart, compassion, and prayer
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Expressions given-off Erving Goffman
Judging each candidates emotions and
likeability by examining 43 different facial
expressions, Sensory Logic Inc. declared Kerry
the winner.
Faces of Frustrations, Democratic National
Committee
http//www.democrats.org/
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LEHRER New question, Mr. President. Two
minutes. Has the war in Iraq been worth the cost
of American lives, 1,052 as of today? BUSH You
know, every life is precious. Every life matters.
You know, my hardest -- the hardest part of the
job is to know that I committed the troops in
harm's way and then do the best I can to provide
comfort for the loved ones who lost a son or a
daughter or a husband or wife. You know, I
think about Missy Johnson. She's a fantastic lady
I met in Charlotte, North Carolina. She and her
son Bryan, they came to see me. Her husband PJ
got killed. He'd been in Afghanistan, went to
Iraq. You know, it's hard work to try to love
her as best as I can, knowing full well that the
decision I made caused her loved one to be in
harm's way. I told her after we prayed and
teared up and laughed some that I thought her
husband's sacrifice was noble and worthy.
Because I understand the stakes of this war on
terror. I understand that we must find Al Qaida
wherever they hide.
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We must deal with threats before they fully
materialize. And Saddam Hussein was a threat,
and that we must spread liberty because in the
long run, the way to defeat hatred and tyranny
and oppression is to spread freedom. Missy
understood that. That's what she told me her
husband understood. So you say, "Was it worth
it?" Every life is precious. That's what
distinguishes us from the enemy. Everybody
matters. But I think it's worth it, Jim. I think
it's worth it, because I think -- I know in the
long term a free Iraq, a free Afghanistan, will
set such a powerful in a part of the world that's
desperate for freedom. It will help change the
world that we can look back and say we did our
duty.
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What Effect? Activation, Crystallization, Reinforc
ement, Conversion Spin The Formation of
Public Opinion
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The Spiral of Silence Pluralistic Ignorance
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The Spiral of Silence Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann
The phrase "spiral of silence" refers to how
people tend to remain silent when they feel that
their views are in the minority. The model is
based on three premises

• people have a "quasi-statistical organ," a
• sixth-sense, which allows them to know the
• prevailing public opinion, even without access
• to polls

(2) people have a fear of isolation and know
what behaviors will increase their likelihood of
being socially isolated, and
(3) people are reticent to express their minority
views, primarily out of fear of being isolated.
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Pluralistic Ignorance
Pluralistic ignorance, a concept first coined by
Floyd Allport (1924, 1933), refers to the
pattern in which individual members of a group
assume that they are virtually alone in holding
the social attitudes and expectations they do,
all unknowing that others privately share them.
Floyd Allport 1890 - 1978
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Richard M. Nixon "The Great Silent
Majority November 3, 1969
"So tonight, to you, the great silent majority of
my fellow Americans, I ask for your support.  I
pledged in my campaign for the Presidency to end
the war in a way that we could win the peace."
The day after the speech, as supportive telegrams
and letters streamed in to the White House, an
administration official clarified Nixon's concept
of "silent majority" a "large and normally
undemonstrative cross section of the country
that until last night refrained from articulating
its opinions on the war." (quoted in the New
York Times, November 5, 1969). More than 50,000
telegrams and 30,000 letters flooded the White
House. The President's approval rating jumped
eleven points, the biggest increase as a result
of a Presidential speech in the history of the
Gallup Poll.
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Larry Wright, Detroit, Michigan, The Detroit News,
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Regardless of which candidate you happen to
support, who do you think did the better job in
the debate - Rotated John Kerry (or) George W.
Bush?
Results are based on telephone interviews with
615 nb registered voters, aged 18 and older,
who watched the presidential debate September 30,
2004. One can say with 95 confidence that the
margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4
percentage points.
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Newsweek/Princeton Survey Research Associates
Results are based on telephone interviews with
1,013 nb registered voters, aged 18 and older.
750 watched the presidential debate September 30,
2004. One can say with 95 confidence that the
margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4
percentage points.
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Regardless of which candidate you happen to
support, who do you think did the better job in
the debate - Rotated John Kerry (or) George W.
Bush?
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Regardless of which candidate you happen to
support, who do you think did the better job in
the debate - Rotated John Kerry (or) George W.
Bush?
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Newsweek/Princeton Survey Research Associates
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Regardless of which candidate you happen to
support, who do you think did the better job in
the debate - Rotated John Kerry (or) George W.
Bush?
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How has your opinion of John Kerry/George W. Bush
been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of
Rotated John Kerry (or) George W. Bush
more favorable, less favorable, or has it not
changed much?
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Regardless of which presidential candidate you
support, please tell me if you think John Kerry
or George W. Bush would better handle the
situation in Iraq.
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Regardless of which presidential candidate you
support, who do you trust more to handle the
responsibilities of commander in chief of the
military - John Kerry or George W. Bush
rotated?
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Daryl Cagle, Slate.com
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Thinking about the following characteristics and
qualities, please say whether you think each one
better described John Kerry or George W. Bush
during tonights debate. How about - Random
Order? Newsweek Poll
Kerry Bush Advantage
Expressed himself more clearly Came across more
confident Had a good understanding of the
issues Had better command of facts Agreed with
you more on the issues you care about Was more
believable Was more likeable Was more
likeable Demonstrated he is tough enough for the
job Performed better than expected
60 32 28
62 26 36
41 41 0
56 37 19
46 49 -3
45 50 -5
41 48 -7
47 41 6
37 54 -17
56 11 45
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Thinking about the following characteristics and
qualities, please say whether you think each one
can be applied to John Kerry or George W. Bush.
Newsweek Poll likely worded differently
Kerry Bush Advantage
Intelligent and well-informed Strong
Leadership Trusted in international crisis Better
for homeland security Better for war in
Iraq Better for foreign policy in general Better
handling the economy Better handling health
care Better handling foreign competition Approval
Rating
80 (6) 59 21
56 (6) 62 6
51 (5) 51 0
40 (6) 52 12
44 (5) 49 5
46 48 2
52 39 13
56 34 22
54 36 18
49 46 3
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In the debate tonight, overall, do you think John
Kerrys criticism of George W. Bush was fair or
unfair?
Fair Unfair No Opinion
63 34 3
In the debate tonight, overall, do you think
George W. Bushs criticism of John Kerry was
fair or unfair?
Fair Unfair No Opinion
68 28 4
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Using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now
statistically tied among all registered voters
in a three-way race John Kerry 47 George W.
Bush 45
Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who
draws 2 percent of the vote, widens Kerrys
lead John Kerry 49 George W. Bush 46