THE IRAN DEBATE

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THE IRAN DEBATE

• Presented byBay Area Iranian-American Democrats
• on July 6, 2006 to
• Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee

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The Purpose of This Presentation

• This presentation is not so much about trying to
  convince anyone to take a particular position
  with respect to our foreign policy dilemma about
  Iran. It is perfectly fair -- and even useful --
  for people to have opposing views on this topic.
  However, the most important thing this
  presentation intends to accomplish is to inject
  reality into this debate so that we dont have
  the wrong debate -- the way we did in the lead up
  to the invasion of Iraq.

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Presentation Overview

• Why is this so important?
• Putting Things in Perspective
• Impacts of Bush Administrations Iran Foreign
  Policy
• Dangers of Attacking Iran
• Iranian Versions of Ahmad Chalabi
• What should we do?

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1. Why is this so important?

• Arguably the single most consequential foreign
  policy decision to be made by the US during the
  next few years
• In the absence of good information, it is very
  easy to be misled (and very hard to make good
  decisions)
• Fool me once, shame on you fool me twice, shame
  on me!

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2. Putting Things in Perspective

• About Iran
• About IRI, the Islamic Republic of Iran
• Dangers of a Nuclear Iran
• - Exaggerated vs. Realistic
• Other Important Facts

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2a) About Iran

• Population 70M (2.6 times the pop. of Iraq)
• Area 650K sq miles (3.7 times the size of Iraq)
• One of the oldest countries in the world hence
  one of the strongest senses of nationalism
• Iranians are not Arabs (neither good nor bad)
• Favorable view of US, especially among Iranian
  middle class
• This favorable view does not extent to (and is
  weakened by)
• US pressures about the nuclear issue
• US less than evenhanded support of Israel
• Interference (recall the 1953 CIA coup in Iran)

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2b) About IRI, Islamic Republic of Iran

• Known supporter of anti-Israel (but not
  anti-American) terrorist organizations
• President Ahmadinejads outrageous comments about
  Israel and the Holocaust
• President is not Commander-In-Chief
• Anti-Israel, not anti-Jew
• Largest Jewish community in ME outside of Israel
• Dozens of Synagogues
• Secure Jewish seat in Parliament

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2c) Exaggerated Dangersof a Nuclear Iran

• The Mad-mullah argument (using nukes against US
  or Israel)
• The Iranian regime has been consistently quite
  rational about its primary concern, namely its
  own survival. It is highly unlikely for that
  regime to commit such suicide.
• Giving nukes to terror groups that may use them
  against US
• When used, nuclear weapons can be traced back
  (using scientific methods) to where they were
  made. Again, IRI is highly unlikely to commit
  such suicide.

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2c) More Realistic Dangersof a Nuclear Iran

• Will put US in a significantly less favorable
  bargaining/negotiating position
• May accelerate an arms race in ME
• May upset the balance of power in the location of
  the world's largest oil reserves

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2d) Other Important Facts

• Iran not a part of US war on terror
• Unlike Al Qaeda, today neither the Iranian regime
  nor people are interested in killing Americans.
  This can change as it did for many Sunni Iraqis.
• Inconclusive intelligence about whether Iran
  actually has a nuclear weapons program
• Once again, there are signs of cherry picking
  intelligence by the Administration (in order to
  make a tough case against Iran)
• With the exception of Turkey and Israel, Iran is
  the closest to a democracy in the ME (much closer
  than Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt)
• Once again, there are people saying that the
  people of Iran would welcome US attacks, that
  direct talks should be avoided, and that once we
  attack, the Iranian people would take it from
  there to topple the regime

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3. Impacts of Bush Admin.sIran Foreign Policy

• Took out 2 of the worst enemies of the Iranian
  regime Taliban and Saddam
• Has virtually urged the regime to pursue nukes by
  creating a credible threat -- The Axis-of-Evil
  talk
• Has helped popularity of that regime inside and
  outside Iran by continuing to play to its
  strength (e.g. the nuclear issue and the war
  rhetoric)
• Has had a favorable effect on the election of
  Ahmadinejad in 2005, the most extreme rightwing
  Iranian president to date

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4. Dangers of Attacking Iran

• Highly unlikely to topple the regime
• Distraction from US war on terror (e.g. Al Qaeda
  and the like)
• Will create brand new sworn enemies of US where
  there isnt one today (as in the case of Iraq)
• Setback for pro-democracy movement in Iran
• Will strengthen regimes grip on power
• Possibility of creating or accelerating Irans
  nuclear weapons program (recall Iraq in 1982)
• A wounded regime would be far more unpredictable
  and dangerous
• A range of non-conventional and destabilizing
  retaliatory responses available to Iranian regime
• The economic hit The price of oil
• Possibility of fueling the flames of the
  worldwide Islamic rage even further

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5. Iranian Versions of Ahmed Chalabi

• MEK (Mojahedin-E Khalgh) anti-IRI group
  designated by State Dept. as a terrorist
  organization
• Attractive to neoconservatives
• Richard Perle at MEK fundraiser
• Fox News use of MEK members as political
  commentators
• Numerous front groups in the US
• Pro-Shah groups/individuals
• The May/06 made-up story about the Iranian regime
  requiring Jews Christians to wear colored
  badges!
• Numerous Persian satellite TV Channels in US

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About MEK Pro-Shah Groups

• Both sworn enemies of the Iranian regime
• Both extremely unpopular inside Iran
• Top 2 most organized and/or well-funded Iranian
  groups in America

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6. What should we do?

• Stop playing to IRIs strength (e.g. the nuclear
  issue)
• Start playing to IRIs weaknesses (such as human
  rights and democratization)
• Call off the very credible US Israeli threats
• Genuine diplomacy -- as opposed to the pretence
  of it
• Stay away from any action that would weaken the
  Iranian middle class (such as blanket sanctions)
  -- Middle class is the engine of any democracy
• Be mindful of Iranians strong sense of
  nationalism (ex Bushs message to Iranian people
  on June 19, 06)

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References

• Lack of specific evidence of Iranian clandestine
  nuclear weapons program Intelligence cherry
  picking by President Bush (LAST STAND, by Seymour
  Hersh July 3, 2006)
• http//www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060
  710fa_fact
• Jews in Iran Describe a Life of Freedom
• http//www.csmonitor.com/durable/1998/02/03/intl/i
  ntl.3.html
• http//www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2004/s120281
  1.htm
• Richard Perle at fundraising event linked to MEK,
  anti-IRI group designated by State Department as
  a terrorist organization
• http//www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A58296-20
  04Jan28?languageprinter
• MEK lobbying efforts in US
• http//www.iranian.com/Pourzal/2006/June/MEK/index
  .html
• MEK member, a Foreign Affairs Analyst for Fox
  News
• http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alireza_Jafarzadeh

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References - continued

• Disinformation campaign against Iranian regime in
  May 2006 (Note Amir Taheri was editor of Keyhan,
  Shahs main paper before the 1979 revolution,
  with links to Richard Perle as noted in this
  article)
• Yellow journalism and chicken hawks
• http//www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HE24Ak03.
  html
• Bush Comments Boosted Hard-Line Votes (in Irans
  2005 presidential elections)
• http//www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,160070,00.html
  
• Iran requested to talk to US government in 2003
  (with everything on the table) - Burnt Offering
• http//www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?sectionrootn
  ameViewPrintarticleId11539
• President Bushs message to Iranian People on
  6/19/06 (a positive example of being mindful of
  Iranians sense of nationalism)
• http//www.acronym.org.uk/docs/0606/doc06.htm