Recognizing WAS ISer talent

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Recognizing WAS ISer talent findings from The
Warning Project Eve Gruntfest
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CULTURE CHANGE IS UNDERWAYfocus on some of the
folks whose work you dont yet know about
exciting, thrilling unprecedented collaborations
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
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We know a little something about the work of

• Julie Demuth, Rebecca Morss, Karen Pennesi,
  Olga Wilhelmi, Gina Eosco, Melissa Tuttle Carr
  Kevin Barjenbruch
• so many more

Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
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Jenn Cox New York City Leading new efforts in
sustainability regional planning climate
energy (organized Association of American
Geographers sessions)
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Chris Uejio ( other WASISers including Olga W.
Tanja F.) - Leading the way on vulnerability
mapping climate health work
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
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Pam Heinselman University of OklahomaPhased
array radar demonstration project
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
Interviewing forecasters as part of research
project design
Randy Peppler University of Oklahoma
Native American perceptions of weather
information - interdisciplinary committee
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
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So many others

• Lee Tryhorn - Monash University Adaptations to
  Climate Change in Small City in Australia
• Matt Biddle University of Oklahoma
• Probabilistic warnings for tornado warnings
• 146 WAS ISers ACTIVELY engaged in CULTURE
  CHANGE THROUGH research, operations,
  education

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Toward Improved Understanding of Warnings for
Short-Fuse Weather Events National Science
Foundation funded study of perceptions in Austin,
TX Denver, CO MANY WAS IS spin offs!
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The last major research findings on warnings are
30 years old

• What about cell phones, Internet,
• private public sources of
• information?
• How are diverse urban
• populations interpreting
• warnings?

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Our 2003-2008 project aimed to

• Evaluate impacts of
• Demographic change
• New different
• sources of information
• Test conventional wisdom about
• False alarms/ close calls
• Evaluate how experience trauma affect warning
  response

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Why Austin Denver

• Similarities
• Large
• Growing cities
• Diverse
• populations
• Vulnerable to
• flash flooding

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Warning project methodology

• Survey Development
• 1 year
• Input from officials hazards researchers
• Survey format
• Likert scale true/false
• Demographic questions
• Experience with flash floods trauma
• Surveys in English Spanish to selected
  respondents
• Survey is available for follow up studies

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• Mail survey
• 6000 surveys sent to residents in or near the
  floodplain
• 1017 surveys returned

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• Public response components
• Hear/receive
• Understand
• Believe
• Personalize
• Decide to act
• Take
• appropriate actions

Warning process is complex there are many
publics
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Dave Schultz Leading new efforts in perceptions
of tornado warnings - poster availableuse of
scenario
I am driving east on Martin Luther King Blvd.
near Airport Blvd. at 3 p.m. on an August
afternoon to meet some friends. Its been
pouring for the last 20 minutes, and I see
lightning everywhere. I look to my right and
see what looks like a funnel cloud begin to drop
from the sky not too far to the south. Traffic
begins to slow down as the hail becomes more
intense. I hear over the radio that a tornado
warning has been issued for central Travis
County The safest place to be during a tornado
is in a basement. Get under a workbench or other
piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available. . . seek shelter on the lowest floor
of the building in an interior hallway or room
such as a closet. If in mobile homes or
vehicles. . . evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
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Sheldon Drobot Leading new efforts in natural
hazards and automobiles (organized sessions at
American Meteorological Society meeting
arranged for expeditious publication of Warning
Project results)
50
Austin
Denver
40
30
More from Sheldon in a few minutes
Yes
20
10
0
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
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Isabelle Ruin University of Grenoble, France
Flash flood research links between warnings
officials publics Awarded NCAR Post-doc for
2008
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
Ashley Coles- University of Arizona also using
survey questions for her flash flood work in
Tucson, AZ
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
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What respondents said

• Where do people get their weather information?
• Best way for officials to warn you about a flash
  flood?

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All sources of weather information used
n935
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False alarm issues

• What are public perceptions of false alarms?
• Is cry wolf concept accurate for flash flood
  warnings?
• How do demographic characteristics influence
  perceptions about false alarms?
• Cry wolf may not be a major problem

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Verification/false alarms Forecast
verification is difficult in rural areas.
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Prairie dogs dont answer the phone
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Denver vs. Austin Officials are too sensitive to
the possibility of flash flooding
N 906
80 report that officials are not too sensitive
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Realizing its difficult to predict flash floods,
I prefer more warnings even if there are more
false alarms or close calls
N 1047
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Austin by GenderRealizing its difficult to
predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even
if there are more false alarms or close calls
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Lindsey Barnes New conceptual model of false
alarms close calls- in press in Weather
Forecasting
Connecticut False Evacuation
1999 Oklahoma Tornados
Hurricanes Fran Bertha
December 2004 Tsunami
Red River Flood 1997
Event followed warning as specified
Event occurred but was less severe than warning
Event occurred but was more severe than warning
Warning was issued but event did not occur
Warning was not issued but event occurred
Perfect Warning
Unwarned Event
False Alarm
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Possibilities for future directions
http//70.253.207.10/view/index.shtml live
cameras, youtube

• Focus on actual behavior not perceptions
• Why they did what they did what information they
  had/didnt have when they made their decisions
  -- driving simulator extending scenarios
  Other cities

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Sheldon Drobot Leading new efforts in natural
hazards automobiles (30 years after what people
did during the Big Thompson Flood)
Joys of Collaboration Remarkable landscape
change for directing WAS ISer careers
enhancing Warning Project
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Austin
Denver
40
30
Yes
20
10
0
Wouldnt have happened without WAS IS
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Use materials that are available from National
Weather Service, Clark County Regional Flood
Control District others!