A sense of time

1
A sense of time Current perspective A sense of
time Historical perspective people Historical
perspective income Leaders and laggards China
2
Question what is the 2006 economic growth
forecast (according to The Economist) for
Poland? Germany? Netherlands? USA?
Poland 5.3 Germany 1.5 Netherlands 2.7 USA
2.8
3
We have become accustumed to steady growth
rates (Note on a log scale constant growth is a
straight line)
4
A sense of time Current perspective A sense of
time Historical perspective people Historical
perspective income Leaders and laggards China
5
speed of light?
A sense of time
Milky way galaxy about 200-400 billion stars
6
The Big Bang
7
A sense of time Current perspective A sense of
time Historical perspective people Historical
perspective income Leaders and laggards China
8
World population in historic perspective
(millions)
How many people are alive today?
How many in the year 0?
the year 1000?
the year 1500?
data Kremer (1993) Maddison (2001)
year
1000
1500
2000
500
0
-500
9
World population, UN projection (2001) 2000-2050
10000
8000
population (millions)
6000
4000
2000
realisation
projection
0
1800
1850
1950
1900
2000
2050
year
10
A sense of time Current perspective A sense of
time Historical perspective people Historical
perspective income Leaders and laggards China
11
World GDP per capita Maddison (2001), The World
Economy A Millennial Perspective, OECD (1990
international )
NB you need 400 to stay alive
What is average world GDP per capita now?
What was it in the year 0?
How about the year 1000?
2000
1500
1000
500
0
year
12
A sense of time Current perspective A sense of
time Historical perspective people Historical
perspective income Leaders and laggards China
13
Maddison (2001) countries and regions
14
Leaders and laggards
data Maddison (2001)
500
Leaders and laggards in GDP/capita index
relative to world average
next leader?
400
next leader?
300
next leader?
leader 1500?
200
100
laggard 1500?
other laggard?
laggard 1960s?
0
2000
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
year
15
A sense of time Current perspective A sense of
time Historical perspective people Historical
perspective income Leaders and laggards China
16
Maddison (2001) The World Economy A Millennial
Perspective
China turned its back on the world economy in the
early fifteenth century .. Chinas highly
educated elite showed no interest in the
technological development and military potential
of Western Europe. A British mission in 1793
tried to open diplomatic relations and
demonstrate the attractions of western science
and technology with 600 cases of presents
(including chronometers, telescopes, a
planetarium, chemical and metal products). The
official rebuff stated there is nothing we lack
we have never set much store on strange or
ingenious objects, nor do we want any more of
your countrys manufactures. The rigid monopoly
of foreign trade and the policy of autarkic
selfreliance were abandoned after 1978 .. There
was a massive increase in interaction with the
world economy through trade, inflows of direct
investment, a very large increase in
opportunities for study and travel abroad, and
for foreigners to visit China.
17
Economic development of China absolute (right
scale) and relative to the world average (left
scale)
China trade share of GDP in 1870 0.7 in 1913
1.2
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China, a case study
GLF Great Leap Forward CR Cultural
Revolution Mao Maos death ER Economic
Reform SP TS Student Protest Tiananmen
Square