Welcome to openSolar09

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Welcome to openSolar09!
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Welcome!

• To our series of openSolar09 presentations
• Covering the entire range
• ? climate change
• ? GIS methods
• ? solar potentials
• ? solar implementation
• This 1st presentation gives the broad context

Discussion preparing the practical implementation
of solar energy
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We should take the perspectives of ...
thermal insulation
Central Asian citizens
Electricity export
Fossil fuel import
The energy enterprises
Summer water for winter gas
losses
International cooperation
theft
Water for irrigation
tariffs
New markets
efficiency
Energy security
... 40 questions for the 40 girls
Low capital
kV lines
4
Climate change and future energy demand
as global national motivation for renewable
energy

• Gilbert Ahamer, Bishkek, 24.8.09

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Our 1st logical chain
Which argumentation?
(global standpoint)
global climate change
global change is mainly climate change
CO2 stems from fossil fuels
what we need is energy services
housing sector
CO2 free, simple technology
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Our 2nd logical chain
Which argumentation?
(Kyrgyz standpoint)
energy supply security
political difficulties to enforce regional oil
and gas contracts
high costs for fossil hydro power
High risks losses for centrali- sed energy
small units
local know-how of professio- nals
7
The abstract

• The motivation for this workshop is twofold
• global climate change and
• energy supply security.
• Especially the first reason is explained on a
  global scale using simple models, long-term
  projections and using a logical chain of cause
  and effect symbolised by the puzzle below. The
  second reason is underlined by the geopolitical
  situation of fossil rich versus fossil poor
  countries and the principally limited
  availability of fossil fuels at reasonable price.
• The mechanisms of the greenhouse effect are
  explained and lead to the conclusion that only
  abatement of global CO2 concentration will lead
  to lowering CO2 concentrations whereas
  deforestation is of comparatively lesser
  importance.
• Only considerable decrease of energy consumption
  as such can lead to lower CO2 emissions fuel
  switch to biomass or other has lower potential.
• However, the remaining energy demand must be
  covered as much as possible by other fuels than
  fossil fuels because their remaining reserves
  would boost the global CO2 concentration to
  several times the pre-industrial value.
• Within a countries options to reduce (a) energy
  demand and (b) to switch towards renewable and
  carbon neutral energy sources, the following
  result of analyses is stated
• the highest technical, economic and practical
  potential lies in the sector of household, namely
  heating
• a high potential is biomass energy which,
  however, cannot be implemented in Kyrgyzstan for
  climatic reasons. Hence solar, hydro and wind
  potentials take the lead of practice-oriented
  climate protection.
• Strategies of solar energy for heating appear as
  best adapted to the Kyrgyz and Central Asian
  situations because of (i) their practicality,
  (ii) relative low capital input, (iii)
  adaptability to local circumstances and (iv)
  openness to personal craftwork of local citizens.

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1st argument global climate change 1
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1st argument global climate change 2
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1st argument global climate change 3
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1st argument global climate change 4
2100 5C in Kyrgyzstan!
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1st argument global climate change 5
winter
summer
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1st argument global climate change 6
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1st argument global climate change 7
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1st argument global climate change 8
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1st argument global climate change 9
Largest potentials are energy
conservation/efficiency renewables
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1st argument global climate change 10
Largest potentials are energy
conservation/efficiency renewables
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1st argument global climate change 11
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1st argument global climate change 12
20
2nd argument energy supply security 1
Hubbert believed Our principal constraints are
cultural. During the last two centuries we have
known nothing but exponential growth and in
parallel we have evolved what amounts to an
exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily
dependent upon the continuance of exponential
growth for its stability that it is incapable of
reckoning with problems of nongrowth
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2nd argument energy supply security 1
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Central Asia map political situation
23
Energy economics in Central Asia
24
Energy economics in Central Asia KG
25
Fossil resources in Central Asia
26
Energy economics in Kyrgyzstan
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Energy economics in Central Asia KZ
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Energy economics in Central Asia UZ
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Energy economics in Central Asia TM
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Energy economics in Central Asia TJ
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2nd argument energy supply security 1

• In Soviet times, the plants operated mostly
  during the summer,
• since the primary purpose of the Toktogul
  reservoir was to provide water for irrigation in
  Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
• At the time, Kyrgyzstan was supplied with fossil
  fuel by other republics in the FSU.
• Source Energy Charter Secretarariat, Report on
  Kyrgyzstan, 2007

32
2nd argument energy supply security 2

• With independence, priority was given to
  Kyrgyzstans own needs for electricity and the
  plants began operating mostly in winter, when
  electricity demand is high and water has to be
  stored for summer.
• There is potential for development of more
  hydropower generation further upstream from the
  Toktogul dam.
• Some construction has taken place since
  independence, but high investment costs have
  caused the projects to be put on hold.

33
2nd argument energy supply security 1

• CDS 2007-2010 145 The electric power industry
  accounts for about 5 of GDP, 16 of industrial
  production, and 10 of state budget revenues. The
  distribution network ensures 100 access to
  energy for the population, with energy
  consumption amounting to 2,400 kWh per capita,
  which is rather high.
• 148 Systemic losses in the power distribution
  network exceeded 40, about 25 due to commercial
  losses and theft. As a result, the power
  sectors quasi-fiscal deficit at the end of 2006
  amounted to 5.4 of GDP and negatively affected
  macroeconomic stability and the budgets
  sustainability.
• 165 Develop a program of reducing consumption
  of hydrocarbon raw materials and replacement
  thereof by alternative power sources as well as
  rules of access to networks and sale of power
  generated at alternative power sources and tariff
  policy for products thereof.

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2nd argument energy supply security 2

• Small hydro projects used to contribute to the
  total hydro potential during the 1960s,
• but when the large HPPs on the Naryn cascade came
  into operation, most of the small HPPs were
  abandoned.
• The World Bank has identified 19 possible small
  hydroelectric plants with a 120 MW total
  installed capacity.

35
2nd argument energy supply security 3

• (Administrative economic political)
  structures are weak (see WB report, see national
  plan)
• Poverty 48 of population below national poverty
  line
• Gross National Income per capita 440 US/cap

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Structure of the Kyrgyz economy
(estimates after 2008)
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Kyrgyz economy

• GDP per capita 2,000 (2007 est.)
• 40 of population below poverty line (2004)
• 18 unemployment (2004)
• Exports mainly gold and minerals ( in map)

(estimates after 2008)
38
The real economic constitution

• WB report, 24 It is estimated that about 53
  percent of economic output is produced in the
  shadow economy.
• 25 Institutional weaknesses and widespread
  corruption in the public sector also diminished
  the ability of the public administration to act
  in the public interest.
• Remittances may amount to at least 19 of GDP
• Gastarbeiter 700,000 in Russia, 70,000 in KZ

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Deplorable practice in the Kyrgyz economy

• 59 percent of businesses cited corruption as a
  significant obstacle to doing business.
• It was also ranked at 142 out of 163 countries on
  the 2006 Transparency International Corruption
  Index.

? Use an energy system directly linked to the
consumer!
40
But also ...

• Despite the problems described above, the Kyrgyz
  Republic does have relatively liberal legislation
  in many areas, low formal government
  interventions, and a formally deregulated
  business environment.
• This environment has created a basis for a
  steadily developing business community that in
  turn has helped stimulate a buoyant civil
  society, opening the way for increased voice and
  accountability.
• Following the March 2005 revolution, civil
  society has consistently called on the
  authorities to fulfill their commitments to fight
  corruption and organized crime, and the
  authorities have in turn engaged in active
  dialogue with civil society. The mass media is
  freer now, and an environment of active political
  debate prevails
• cited from 45 World Bank Report JCSS.

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Kyrgyz legal texts on energy

• Law on Energy No. 56 of 30 October 1996,
• Law on Electricity No. 8 of 18 January 1997,
• Law on Energy Savings No. 88 of 7 July 1998,
• INOGATE
• Energy Plan ... ?

42
Kyrgyz energy demand pattern

• Significant structural adjustment took place
  during the 90s, when industrial activity declined
  and the services sector of the economy expanded.
• The share of industry in final energy consumption
  fell from more than 41 to less than 30.
• The residential and commercial sector emerged as
  the largest consumer of energy (gt50 in 2006).

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Kyrgyzstans major energy problems EC

• Subsidised energy, which is used to support
  energy-intensive exports (gold, lead),
  agriculture and social welfare programs
• Low efficiency of the use of energy (energy
  intensity of GDP is about 3 times higher than
  average world energy intensity)
• Serious problems with emissions control and
  reduction
• The extensive use of subsidised electricity for
  space heating and hot water
• High import dependency (oil and gas)
• High degree of wear and tear at almost all major
  energy sector facilities
• Difficulties in balancing water use for power
  generation and irrigation
• Difficulties in raising funding for the
  construction of new hydropower plants
• Difficulties in dealing with losses, metering,
  accounting and payment collection.

44
Country Development Strategy (2007-10)

• CDS prepared in participatory manner (CPS 49)
• Motivated by (1) 2005 events, (2) World Bank
• Issued by presidential decree on May 16, 07
  http//www.president.kg/en/strateg/
• the most useful interventions support basic
  reforms rather than second or third generation
  reforms where institutional capacity has not yet
  been developed (CPS 68)

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Country Development Strategy (2007-10)

• CDS broadly identifies the necessary measures
• The objectives are to
• (a) deliver a reliable, sustainable long term
  energy supply, while strengthening the sectors
  financial situation by reaching cost recovery
  tariffs by 2010
• (b) enable the sector to play its role in
  underpinning strong economic growth and
• (c) ensure that the poor have the resources to
  pay for energy required to satisfy basic needs.

46
Country Development Strategy (2007-10)

• The Kyrgyz Republic has considerable energy
  resources. Its hydroelectric resources are of the
  order of 26,000 MW of which only about 10 percent
  is exploited.
• Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) to finance
  construction of new hydroelectric stations and
  transmission lines to potential export markets in
  South Asia.
• The first step in tapping this potential will be
  to undertake the financial and technical
  rehabilitation of the domestic electricity sector
  to restore its viability
• The energy companies have accumulated a huge
  amount of debt (deficit 7.6 of GDP in 2005).
  (CPS 77)

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Country Development Strategy (2007-10)

• The countrys economic dependence on imports of
  oil and gas from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
  further underscores the importance of effective
  regional economic cooperation.
• Similarly, the need for cooperation in the use of
  the regions trans-boundary water resources is
  important so that the Kyrgyz Republic receives
  adequate compensation for the operation and
  maintenance of water storage services and to
  mitigate the risks of regional environmental
  disasters such as receding of the Aral Seas
  shores. (CPS 103)

48
Joint Country Support Strategy (2007-10), Goal
1.1 Energy sector

• Tariffs increased to full cost recovery
• Improved tariff collections to 93 by 2010
• Analysis of the feasibility of expanded
  hydropower production and export completed
• Improvements in loss reduction
• Progress made in concession management and
  privatization of distribution companies

???
49
Joint Country Support Strategy (2007-10), Goal
1.1 Energy sector
50
Country Assistance Strategy Completion Report
(2003-06)

• A number of structural reforms, including energy
  reforms in particular, were stalled for a number
  of years (JCSS07, page 76)
• Community driven approaches (e.g. Village
  Improvement Project) successful reforms at the
  local level

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The idea use global solar success story

• Global PV
• solarthermal

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Solar story USA

• What is energy security?
• Discoveries lt production!
• Where is highest growth?

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Correct priotities in energy use!

• First reduce energy demand
• Then take care of energy efficiency
• Then care for sustainable energy fuel

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Energy efficiency in KG?

• Kyrgyzstan's economy has a substantial potential
  for energy savings.
• 37 of electric power,
• up to 33 of thermal power, and
• up to 47 of boiler fuel
• could be saved if required measures were taken
  and appropriate investments made
• KGs energy intensity equals 1080 toe/US, which
  is 3.6 higher than the world average.

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Solar profile in Kyrgyzstan in 2002
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Small Hydro profile in Kyrgyzstan in 2002
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What means potential?
What nature offers
What can be built with reasonable effort
with reasonable cost
What is practically, politically feasible
demanded

• always, potentials are no constant figure but a
  function of costs
• Potential f(cost)

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The EBRD Country profile for Kyrgyzstan

• The Kyrgyz electricity system forms part of the
  central Asian electricity system that was
  developed in the Soviet times. Upon independence
  Kyrgyzstan inherited the power stations and lines
  located on its territory, and still maintains
  close links with neighboring countries for
  operational purposes.
• After independence, a vertically integrated,
  state owned utility was formed to generate,
  transmit, distribute and supply electricity
  throughout the country. This utility was also
  responsible for the operation on the district
  heating networks in Bishkek, Osh and some other
  towns.
• This utility company was eventually transformed
  into JSC Kyrgyzenergo, with most shares owned
  either directly or indirectly by the State. The
  remaining shares (about 7 percent) were issued to
  employees and sold via a mass privatization
  program. Kyrgyzenergo has recently been unbundled
  into separate generation, transmission and
  distribution companies.
• Kyrgyzstan has approximately 3.6 gigawatts (GWe)
  of generating capacity, about 80 percent of which
  is hydroelectric. Kyrgyzstan imports 67 billion
  cubic feet of natural gas per year, mostly from
  Uzbekistan.

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The EBRD Country profile for Kyrgyzstan

• Total losses amount to 55.2 percent of the total
  amount of electricity entering the transmission
  system. The losses in the electricity system can
  be divided into two types, technical and
  non-technical.
• Technical losses occur in all transmission and
  distribution networks and cannot be entirely
  eliminated. They can however be kept to a minimum
  through good network design and maintenance.
• Non-technical losses occur as a result of the
  difference between the amount of electricity
  distributed to customers and the amount that is
  actually paid for. These losses therefore occur
  because of the following
• Theft
• Faulty meters - resulting in the amount of
  electricity used being under-recorded.
• Incorrect records - distribution company customer
  records not being correctly maintained resulting
  in some customers not being billed.
• Non payment.

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Energy Policy, Barriers and Incentives

• Kyrgyzstan's energy policy is heavily weighted
  toward development of its large hydroelectric
  power resources and expansion of its electricity
  grid.

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Wind energy in Kyrgyzstan

• Although there has been minimal wind development
  activity, Kyrgyzstan has a fair potential for
  wind energy development.

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Solar energy in Kyrgyzstan

• Currently the use of solar energy in Kyrgyzstan
  is mainly limited to solar water heating plants
  on flat solar collectors that are produced
  domestically.
• The general area of solar collectors being in
  operation constitutes 60,000 m².

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Solar situation in Kyrgyzstan

• Kyrgyzstan has adequate solar energy resources,
  but there are economic and institutional barriers
  for developing solar energy
• There is no feed-in tariff for electricity from
  renewable energy sources
• and no particular legal framework for support of
  solar energy projects.
• Source Energy Charter Report, 2007

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Example Solar cell production in Kyrgyzstan

• Kyrgystan Polysilicon Plant Opens
• Silicon production in Tash-Kumyr is based on the
  Crystal JSC which was established in Soviet
  times.
• The plant was reopened in 2009 as Tashkumyr
  Silicon Productions (TSP).
• To produce polycrystalline silicon for advanced
  technologies, the plant needs 180-200 million
  investment. Support can be obtained from Russia.
• In future, TSP plans to produce also solar
  panels.

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Solar cell production in Kyrgyzstan
66
Hydro energy in Kyrgyzstan

• Hydropower contributes the greatest amount of all
  resources to the power sector of Kyrgyzstan, it
  accounts for 80 of total generating capacity.
• The installed capacity of 18 HPPs totals 2.9
  million kWh.
• The countrys hydropower infrastructure is the
  second largest source of Kyrgyz exports.
• To underscore the importance of this industry, it
  should be noted that the cumulative
  hydroenergetic reserves of the Kyrgyz rivers
  exceed those of the famous Russian Volga river by
  several hundred percent.
• Kyrgyzstan exports electricity to Russia (over
  1.5 billion kW annually) as well as neighboring
  Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China.
• By absolute indices of potential hydro resources
  and by concentration of potential hydro resources
  on the territory Kyrgyzstan has one of the
  highest potentials amongst CIS countries.
• The major part of hydropower resources (30
  percent) is concentrated in the basin of the
  Naryn River, the main river of the Republic. The
  largest small hydropower potential is
  concentrated in northern, southern and eastern
  districts of the Republic.

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Hydro energy in Kyrgyzstan
68
Hydro energy in Kyrgyzstan
69
The Kyrgyz electricity system
(estimates after 2008)
70
Energy efficiency in KG?

• An audit conducted by the company "Freedman and
  Johnson" in Bishkek some years ago produced
  notable results. The audit report suggested that
  it was not necessary to increase energy
  production if energy efficiency is improved. The
  report underscored that by a technical overhaul
  of the existing equipment energy use could be
  reduced by 13 per cent. According to specialists
  of the European Commission the energy saving
  potentials in the industrial sector in
  electricity alone is equivalent to US 580,000
  per year. The industrial sector could also save
  750,000 Gcal of heat energy a year which has a
  monetary value of US 8.2 million. About 25 per
  cent of electric energy and 15 per cent of heat
  power could be saved through comparatively minor
  investments that would cost only US 1.3 million.
  
• In the industrial sector it is estimated that 45
  per cent of all energy is not used efficiently.
  In transport, energy losses may be as high as 83
  per cent, in housing and in communal services 55
  per cent, in agriculture 40-50 per cent. Heating
  methods used in private homes are only 25-30 per
  cent efficient. Public housing and social service
  buildings are also of old design were built
  according to now outdated standards

71
Characteristics of KG hydro electricity generation

• Since Toktogul reservoir provides multi year
  storage facility for irrigation and agriculture
  in the downstream countries, water releases from
  it are subject to annual consensus.
• This leads to substantial release of water and
  export of electricity in summer and limited
  release of water and import of fuels in winter.
• Thus to a large extent, trade in electricity is a
  byproduct of water release agreements.

72
Power market for KG electricity

• The structure of consumption has changed
  dramatically.
• Industrial consumption declined sharply and the
  share of the residential consumers rose from 15
  to about 60 of the total consumption.
• The main reasons for the surge in the residential
  consumption were the lack of indigenous fossil
  fuels, the quick rise in the price of imported
  fossil fuels to internationally traded levels,
  the scarcity of imported fuels for want of cash
  to pay for imports, and consequent behavior of
  residential consumers in switching from fossil
  fuels to electricity for space heating, cooking
  and hot water, encouraged by the continued low
  and highly subsidized price of electricity.
• Thus seasonal variations in demand became
  pronounced The system peak demand occurs in the
  height of winter and the summer peak demand is
  only about 55 of the winter peak demand. About
  2/3 of the annual electricity consumption takes
  place in the first and the fourth quarters of the
  year (winter and fall), as a result of the
  increased heat demand.

73
Electricity losses in KG

• System Loss, Billing and Collection
• The total system loss level averages to about
  37.
• The technical losses in the transmission and
  distribution network have increased on account of
  the dramatic change in the structure of demand.
  The network also needs extensive rehabilitation.
• A substantial portion of the losses (more than
  50) is attributable to unmetered supplies,
  defective meters and theft of power.
• Billing and Collection efficiencies are poor at
  around 80 each, and the sector is still beset
  with problems of nonpayment and payment in barter.

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Electricity reorganisation in KG (plan 2004)
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Electricity organisation in KG
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Renewable energy in KG?

• Kyrgyzstan has good potential for renewable
  energy development. Kyrgyzstan has good solar
  technical potential especially at higher
  elevations however, financing does not exist in
  the country to fund solar projects.
• The most prevalent renewable energy resources are
  wind, biomass, and hydro. The wind potential is
  estimated to be at least 1,500 MW.
• There is a strong interest in the country with
  regard to the anaerobic digestion of livestock
  manure to generate heat and cooking fuel in the
  rural areas. The opportunity exists to generate
  over 1 MWth using multiple anaerobic digesters in
  the rural provinces of Kyrgyzstan.
• There is also good opportunity for small to
  medium hydro power projects on the Kyrgyz Rivers.
  Lack of internal investment funds is the primary
  reason for the sluggish development of these
  renewable energy resources.
• In spite of this, enthusiasts have erected ten
  biogas plants with capacity ranging from 2 to 40
  m3 and the government has created a Center on the
  Problems of Using Renewable Energy Resources
  (CPURER). Together with the Kyrgyz Association of
  Renewable Energy Resources, CPURER has been
  working out a program for the development of
  renewable energy resources including biomass.

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Hydro projects

• Project Title Technology Capacity
  MW Status Sponsor
• Kambaratinskaya and Rogunskaya
  Hydro Hydroelectric planned
• Dzhanykel Hydroelectric 130 Planned
• Dzhilanaryk 1 Hydroelectric 80 Planned
• Dzhilanaryk 2 Hydroelectric 98 Planned
• Janykel Hydroelectric 130 Planned
• Kambar-Ati-1 Hydroelectric 1900 Planned
• Kambar-Ati-2 Hydroelectric 360 Planned
• Kambar-Ati-3 Hydroelectric 170 Planned
• Karabulun Hydroelectric 163 Planned
• Kirov Kyrghyz Hydroelectric 21 Planned
• Kokemeren 1 Hydroelectric 360 Planned
• Kokemeren 2 Hydroelectric 912 Planned
• Naryn-1 Hydroelectric 62 Planned
• Naryn-2 Hydroelectric 60 Planned
• Naryn-3 Hydroelectric 60 Planned

78
Strategic situation of KG for electricity

• In a 1997 study, the World Bank points out that
  Kyrgyzstan
• has large hydro potential, an estimated total of
  163 TWh/yr,
• but only 73 TWh/yr is technically feasible
• and 48 TWh/yr economically exploitable,
• of which roughly 12 TWh is in use now.
• Hence, in the FSU, Kyrgyzstan was assigned the
  role of providing hydro generation to the
  regional interconnected system. The total usable
  potential of Kyrgyzstan's hydropower is up to
  approximately 26,000 MW, most of it in the basins
  of the rivers Naryn, Sary-Dzhaz, Chatkal Chu.
• Overall, it is possible to construct hydropower
  plants at more than 100 locations.

79
Strategic situation of KG for electricity

• A state-owned company operates 19 hydropower
  plants (HPPs). It also runs two cogeneration
  plants (CHPs), one in the city of Bishkek (587 MW
  installed capacity) and one in Osh (50 MW
  installed capacity). The large HPPs are on the
  Naryn river, all downstream from the large
  Toktogul reservoir, and have a total installed
  capacity of 2,770 MW.
• In Soviet times, the plants operated mostly
  during the summer, since the primary purpose of
  the Toktogul reservoir was to provide water for
  irrigation in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. At the
  time, Kyrgyzstan was supplied with fossil fuel by
  other republics in the FSU.
• With independence, priority was given to
  Kyrgyzstans own needs for electricity and the
  plants began operating mostly in winter, when
  electricity demand is high and water has to be
  stored for summer. This caused extra discharge
  from Toktogul and claims by Uzbekistan and
  Kazakhstan about flooding downstream. Bi-party
  and tri-party agreements were signed, providing a
  framework for cooperation in the use of the hydro
  resources of the Naryn river basin, but the
  agreements often left many issues open and
  implementation is poor.
• There is potential for development of more
  hydropower generation (2,200 MW) further upstream
  from the Toktogul dam. Some construction has
  taken place since independence, but high
  investment costs have caused the projects to be
  put on hold.
• However, Kyrgyzstans own market is relatively
  small and the country already produces more
  electricity than it consumes. Consequently, any
  major investment to exploit the hydropower
  potential can only be justified by electricity
  exports. Southern Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are
  the available markets for Kyrgyzstan. A larger
  regional cooperation project involving exports to
  Pakistan, Afghanistan and China is also possible.
• The country is connected to the other Central
  Asian republics by the Central Asian Integrated
  System, 500-kilovolt lines, controlled by the
  Tashkent dispatching centre. The transmission and
  distribution system has serious problems
  attributable to natural disasters, overloading,
  and its age reliability is thus poor, especially
  in the districts of Djalal Abad, Osh, Naryn, and
  Issyk Kul Lake. Overloading occurs during the
  winter
• because a large part of the population uses
  electricity for space heating for two reasons
  there is no district heating network outside
  Bishkek and Osh and electricity is cheaper than
  other sources of heat.
• Small hydro projects used to contribute to the
  total hydro potential during the 1950s and 1960s,
  but when the large HPPs on the Naryn cascade came
  into operation, most of the small HPPs were
  abandoned. The World Bank has identified 19
  possible small hydroelectric plants with a 120 MW
  total installed capacity and 530 GWh mean annual
  production, which will require an investment of
  some 145 million.
• The main issues which deter investors from
  participation in Kyrgyzstans electricity sector
  is the difficult access to markets and problems
  with the regulatory and legal base.

80
Electricity Generation Plants in KG

• The owner and operator of the generation plants
  is the state-owned JSC Electricheskie Stancii
  (Electric Power Stations, EPS).
• There are a total of 23 power plants with total
  installed capacity of 4,281 MW, including 21
  hydropower plants with total installed capacity
  of 3,744MW and two heat-and power plants (CHP)
  with total installed capacity of 638 MW.
• In 2001, EPS was reorganised and affiliates of
  EPS created as separate companies. As of
  mid-2007, EPS had the following affiliated
  companies
• Toktogul HPP cascade enterprise
• Enterprise of HPP under construction
• At-Bashi HPP enterprise
• Bishkek CHP enterprise
• Osh CHP enterprise.

81
Electricity as seen by public opinion in KG

• To raise public awareness of the energy sector
  situation and ensure transparent decision-making,
  the State Energy Agency of the Kyrgyz Republic
  Government held hearings in all regions in the
  Republic, inter alia, in Bishkek, Osh, Djalal
  Abad and Karakol, commencing on December 18,
  2006.
• The topic for discussion was electricity losses
  and the efforts made by the SEA in that area and
  whether it was possible to introduce a uniform
  tariff for households. The public was informed of
  loss reduction measures devised by the SEA,
  reporting formats to be filled out by energy
  companies to monitor power outages and quality of
  service provided to electricity users
  electricity price structure, and legislative
  amendments on energy matters of direct concern to
  the public.
• A constructive dialogue revealed a variety of
  opinions on such matters, but the majority said
  that the introduction of a uniform electricity
  tariff was possible, specifying that it would
  provide a lot of advantages to the consumer, was
  clear to apply and enabled the consumer to
  control electricity consumption and bills
  moreover, it would leave no chance for dishonest
  controllers to add to the electricity bill
  without reason.

82
New electricity strategy by KG

• In early 2007, for the first time since
  electricity exports from Kyrgyzstan started, the
  government decided to abandon the barter deals
  with neighbouring countries for exchange of water
  and electricity from Kyrgyzstan for gas and coal
  from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Instead, the
  government started holding tender rounds, with
  the first one held on 21 March 2007 at a starting
  price of 1.5 US cents per kWh.

83
Long-term electricity vision for KG

• Kyrgyzstans long-term hopes are linked to the
  Central Asia/South Asia Electricity Trade Project
  (CAS), wherein Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will
  provide hydropower and coal resources and
  Pakistan and Afghanistan are potential import
  markets, particularly for cheaper
  hydroelectricity.
• In CAS, Tajikistan will provide about 1,000 MW
  round the year from Rogun and Sangtuda HPPs
  (under construction), and Kyrgyzstan will
  contribute similar quantity of power.
• Progress achieved so far includes conference of
  the energy ministers, IFIs and interested private
  investors held in Islamabad on 8-9 May, 2006,
  where it was principally agreed by all the
  parties to start feasibility studies.
• In late 2006, Russia indicated that it would like
  to involve in the project another multilateral
  group, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
  (SCO).

84
Mid-term energy policy for KG

• The Kyrgyz midterm energy policy should seek to
  resolve the following priorities
• ensure reliable and uninterruptible energy
  supplies to domestic consumers, first and
  foremost ()
• develop a programme to reduce hydrocarbon imports
  and replace them with local alternative energy
  sources to mitigate dependency on rising energy
  prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
• () development and manufacturing of competitive
  home-made energy related equipment.

85
Solar energy for KG
86
Renewable Energy Sources (RES) for KG
87
Energy efficiency in KG

• In the current situation, the KR,
• endowed with a considerable energy capability,
• imports about 50 of energy consumed,
• its economy is energy gluttonous(),
• and its energy intensity equals 1080 toe/US,
  which is 3.6 higher than the world average.
• () tending to eat and drink to excess

88
Energy efficiency in KG
89
Energy efficiency in KG

• The key document governing relationships in the
  energy-saving area with a view to create an
  economic and organisational environment for
  efficient energy uses is now the Energy-Saving
  Law of the Kyrgyz Republic.
• Given that the Law is an indirect effect act, the
  near-term priority is to develop and adopt a
  dedicated Programme on Energy Saving in the KR in
  2006-2010 (the Programme).

90
Alternative energy for KG institutions

• Government of Kyrgyzstan established a Centre on
  the problems of using renewable energy resources
  (CPURER).
• Together with the Kyrgyz Association of renewable
  energy resources, CPURER has developed a program
  of the use of RES.
• The state business project KUN (sun) was
  founded in 1993 by presidential decree

91
Electricity Generation Plants in KG
92
Solar energy for KG

• Source Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Opportunities
  for Renewable Energy Development, ESMAP Report
  No. 16855 KAZ, November 1997, the World Bank

93
Solar energy for KG
94
Solar energy for KG
95
(No Transcript)
96
Hydro projects map

• In the Kyrgyz Republic there are
• 16 power-generating stations with a total
  installed capacity of 3678 MW.
• This generation scheme comprises 16 hydroelectric
  and 2 thermal energy (CHP) plants
• In the nearest future, 2009-2011, priority
  purpose is completion of construction and
  commissioning Kambarata Hydroelectric-Station
  2, construction with intermissions has being held
  since 1986.
• (Source INOGATE Report)

97
Hydro projects map
98
Hydro electricity need for export lines
99
Kyrgyz electricity system
Bishkek II 2.55 UScents/kWh
Average Incremental Costs WB, 2004
Karambata 1 7.17 UScents/kWh!
Karambata 2 3.72 UScents/kWh
100
Kyrgyz electricity system Kambarata 1

• The incremental cost of power generation by
  Kambarata-1 at US7.17/kWh is the highest among
  those from all the generation options available
  or contemplated in CA.
• However, Kambarata 1 is a large storage hydro
  plant which enables electricity generation in
  winter, since the water released would be stored
  in downstream Toktogul reservoir.
• Thus it will enable Toktogul hydro units and the
  Naryn cascade hydro units operate following the
  irrigation regime as per international
  agreements.

101
Hydro electricity annual planning
102
Country Development Strategy Energy

• 1 The Country Development Strategy (CDS) is a
  very important concept document that outlines a
  medium-term vision for the Kyrgyz Republic.
• The overall goal of the CDS is to improve the
  level and quality of peoples life by ensuring
  sustainable economic growth, creating
  opportunities for employment and earning high and
  sustainable incomes, and improving access to a
  wide range of social services to achieve high
  living standards in a sustainable environment.

103
Country Development Strategy Energy

• 148 Systemic losses in the power distribution
  network exceeded 40, about 25 due to commercial
  losses and theft.
• As a result, the power sectors quasi-fiscal
  deficit at the end of 2006 amounted to 5.4 of
  GDP and negatively affected macroeconomic
  stability and the budgets sustainability.

104
Country Development Strategy Energy

• 153(v) To separate the Kambarata hydro power
  station and the Bishkek and Osh heating plants
  from the OJSC Power stations and offer them to
  strategic investors for joint continuation of
  construction and further operation until 2008.
• 163 It is necessary to adopt legislative
  amendments to allow private investments in
  Kambarata HPS and Bishkek TPS and to create a
  favorable climate to attract direct investments
  for construction of Sary Jaz cascade of HPS,
  Kokomeren HPSs and Upper-Naryn HPS.

105
Country Development Strategy Energy

• 165 Develop a program of reducing consumption
  of hydrocarbon raw materials and replacement
  thereof by alternative power sources as well as
  rules of access to networks and sale of power
  generated at alternative power sources and tariff
  policy for products thereof.
• 170 Energy saving and efficient power
  consumption programs will be developed by the end
  of 2007. They must become a vital element of
  regional and municipal programs of social and
  economic development (...).

106
Country Development Strategy Energy

• 171 Resources. Total investment requirements
  for power sector development in the medium-term
  (2007-2010) amount to 3.5 billion US.

107
Kyrgyz National Energy Strategy Paper

• Planning for 2008-2010 with outlook to 2025
• Governmental decree of 13 February 2008
• Chapter 1 Substitution of imported energy by
  alternative (renewable) energy sources
  prevention of waste of energy (efficiency)
• cutting down energy losses from 40
• Finishing the Kambaratinsko-2 hydro station until
  end of 2009 costing 3,5 Mrd. Som

108
National Investment Plan for Energy

• ??????????? ?????????? ??? ??????????????
  ???????? ?????? ????????????? ? ????????????? ?
  ??? ?????????? ??????????
• ?? ?????? 2008-2025 ?????
• Tabelle 10.1 erforderlichen Investitionenfür die
  Finanzierung Einrichtungen neue Bau und den
  Wiederaufbau in FEC Kirgisische Republik für den
  Zeitraum 2008-2025
• ????????????????????????? ????????, ????????
  ???????????????????? ?????????,???
  ???2008-2010??2011-2015??2016-2020??2021-2025?????
  ??????????????????? ???????????????????????????
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  ???-119002011-20201900-5001400???????-?????????
  ???2002011-2015220220??-?????????
  ???2002010-2015220220????? 1-? ????????
  2008-2025 ??.26202807201620????-????????
  ???12002010-202512002001000????-?????????
  ???12002008-20151200900300????? 2-?
  ????????2008-2025 ??.5020280162021201000?????
  ???1762008-2020290407080100????2008-20202551010???
  ??2008-2025 ??.5335325170022101100????????????????
  ??????? ???-16882007-20105050??-??????????
  ???2007-20101515??-????????? ???2007-20101010?/??
  ????? ? ??? 500 ??2007-2012250120130?/?? ????? ?
  ??? 220 ??360??2007-20125555????????????????
  ?????????? ???????2007-20101010???????????
  ???????????????????????????? ???2007-20106060?????
  ???????????? ????????????? ????2008-2015250808090?
  ???????? ????????????????????????????
  ??????????? ?????? ?????2008-20101515?????????????
  ????????????2008-2015904545?????????????????????
  ? ????? ?????????????2008-2020600150150150150????
  ?705210195150150???????? ????????????????
  ??????????? ??????, ?? ???????? ???????
  ????-????, ???.????.???2008-201581,44041,4

109
Free Economic Zones (FEZ) in KG
110
Conclusion why solar energy is useful

• Small units are possible, personal ownership
• No distribution across long distance
• No tariff changes are necessary (social problems)
• Demand-side orientation
• Insulation is in the interest of the local actor
• No high investment cost into structures(?)
• Independence of international questions (water,
  fossils)

111
Literature

• Peak oil theory Wikipedia

112
Thank you for your attention!