Annex 7 EU Rotate_N Workpackage 2

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Annex 7EU Rotate_N Workpackage 2
N
EU ROTATE_N
EU ROTATE_N

• Evaluation of the effects of varying levels of N
  supply on product quality and farm income
• Chris Firth Ulrich Schmutz

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Objectives

• Collection of economic data and design of the
  database
• link with model
• Factors for converting TDM (Total Dry Matter)
  inFWY (Fresh Weight Yield) andMKTY (Marketable
  Yield)
• Quality Price (in relation to market channel?)
• Variable Costs and Gross Margin (GM)
• gt Production response curves (GM to N)
• gt Economic and environmental optimisation

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Overview
Agronomic data

• Case study scenarios
• Farm level (Rotation)
• Industry, Region
• Macro, Policy Support (Member State, EU)

Model
Economic data Mkt. yields factors Prices-
Variable costs (Subsidies, taxes) Gross
Margins
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Economic Subroutine

• -gt TDM (Agronomic Model Output)x Conversion
  Factors (1) MKTY
  (Marketable Yield)x Prices
  (2) Total Outputs-
  Variable Costs
  (3) GM (Gross Margins) (Economic Model
  Output)

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(1) Conversion Factors

Data from Norway yes Denmark noUK yes
(Well_N)Germany yesItaly noSpain no
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Ratios Mkt. FW / Total DM in Europe

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(1) Questions Discussion

• How can be get more data (timescale)?
• Is there the same conversion factor per crop for
  all Europe?
• Is the factor constant or changing for - sub
  optimal N levels?- above optimal N levels?

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New Crops

• Carrots (Bunching)
• Cauliflower (Winter)
• Cauliflower (Summer)
• Lettuce (Romaine/Cos)
• Celery
• Chicory
• Courgette or Zucchini
• Kohl Rabi or Turnip
• Cucumber (for picking)
• Pea
• Tomato
• Artichoke
• Lamb's lettuce or Corn salad
• Melon (Water)
• Melon (Honey)
• Squash
• Bush bean
• Fennel
• Clover (White)

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(2) Prices

Data from Norway (NOK) no Denmark (DKK) yes,
on a monthly basis UK () yesGermany
() yes, on a monthly basisItaly
() yesSpain () no
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(2) Prices

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(3) Variable Costs

Data from Norway (NOK) no Denmark
(DKK) yesUK () yesGermany () yesItaly
() yesSpain () no
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(3) Variable Costs (cont.)

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(3) Variable Costs (cont.)

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(3) Variable Costs (cont.)

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(2) (3) Questions Discussion

• How can be get more data (timescale)?
• Seasonal or average prices?
• Market channel issue?

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Subtask 2.3Production response curves
Economic optimum 180 kg N /ha
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WP 25 Case Studies

• Farm level - Typical rotations in EU
• Typical regions for studies (e.g. UK South
  Lincolnshire)
• Industry level case studies
• Member State, EU, Policy support level

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Typical Rotations in EU
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Subtask 2.1N supply and marketable yield

• Factors for the relationship between marketable
  yield and- total dry matter yield- fresh matter
  yield
• Source of data- Literature- Experimental data

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Subtask 2.2Database framework

• MS EXCEL data collection sheets
• MS ACCESS database
• Currency conversion
• Inclusion of real-time prices

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Subtask 2.4Algorithms for economic and
environmental optimisation

• Budgetingand / or optimisation techniques?
• Linear programming?
• Other modelling techniques?

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WP2 Action plan
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Workpackage 5. Evaluation of agricultural
strategies

• Selection of case studies Collection of data
  sets crop, soil and weather
• Model running and evaluation of strategies
• Sensitivity analysis