OPTIMA INCO-MPC Project kick-off Meeting, October 28/29 Malta

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OPTIMA INCO-MPCProject kick-off Meeting,October
28/29 Malta
DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt_at_ess.co
.at http//www.ess.co.at Environmental
Software Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

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WP03 Modelling

• MODELS provide a
• Formal
• Structured
• Quantitative
• description of the problems and possible
  solutions.

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WP03 Modelling

• WP1 identifies problem issues, develops a
  structure for the description of the cases,
  identifies data needs and availability,
  constraints
• WP2 analyzes perceptions and preferences,
  institutional or regulatory frameworks, plausible
  socio-economic developments
• WP4 compiles the set of ALTERNATIVE WATER
  TECHNOLOGIES that can be used
• WP5 looks into LAND USE change as one of the
  major driving forces, consistent with WP 2.

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WP03 Modelling

• WP1, 2, 4 and 5 develop the boundary conditions
  and specifications for
• Complete
• Consistent
• Plausible
• Set of SCENARIOS for simulation modelling and
  optimization.

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WP03 Modelling

• WaterWare dynamic water resources model (daily,
  annual) ? optimization
• Embedded models
• RRM rainfall-runoff model
• Automatic RRM calibration
• IRWDM irrigation water demand model
• Related model
• LUC dynamic land use change model

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WP 3 Modelling

• Models provide estimates for
• Economic efficiency
• Environmental compatibility
• Equity (intra- and intergenerational)

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WP03 Modelling

• LUC land use change model
• Discrete state (LUC) transition model
• Markov chain with stochastic transition
  probabilities
• Rule-based constraints and TP adjustments
• Temporal resolution year, scope decades (20-50
  years)
• Spatial resolution ha to km2
• Resource use and pollution as land-use specific
  output
• Possibility for external, global driving forces

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WP03 LUC Modelling

• Global/local adjustments of the transition
  probabilities expressed as
• First-order logic RULES
• in relative terms (INCREASE, DECREASE in ).
• http//www.ess.co.at/SMART/luc.html

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WP03 LUC Modelling

• Interactive editors for
• Land use classes
• Transition probabilities
• Modifying rules
• Class specific resource needs/outputs
• are available on-line together with the viewer
  (player for animated results)
• Links from http//www.ess.co.at/SMART will be
  moved to http//ww.ess.co.at/OPTIMA

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WP03 LUC Modelling

• Derived values
• per unit area, class specific
• Water consumption
• Waste water generated
• Energy use
• Solid waste production
• OTHERS ??

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WP03 Modelling

• LUC EXTENSIONS
• Include transportation network in rules
  (connectivity)
• Other external variables (specified as time
  series)
• More LUC specific coefficients and processes
  (employment, value added, etc)

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WP03 Modelling

• LUC OBJECTIVES
• Hypothesis testing
• Developing CONSISTENT scenarios with high
  explanatory value that can also be used directly
  in the rainfall-runoff basin water budget model

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WP03 Modelling

• RRM rainfall-runoff model
• Dynamic, daily time step
• Uses daily rainfall and temperature
• Major basin characteristic LAND USE (summarized
  from LUC scenarios ??)
• Estimates runoff and dynamic water budget for
  ungaged basins, provides input for WRM start
  nodes (catchment)

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WP03 RRM Modelling

• Includes automatic calibration with runoff
  observation data
• Method Monte Carlo, evolutionary programming
• Extract reliable features (Gestalt) from
  observations, define as constraints on model
  behavior,
• FROM ? TO (period)
• CMIN lt FEATURE lt CMAX
• FEATURES min, max, avg, total, values

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WP03 WR Modelling

• WRM water resources model
• Dynamic, daily time step
• Topology of NODES and REACHES
• Demand nodes (cities, irrigation, industry,
  tourism)
• Estimates dynamic water budget, supply/demand,
  reliability of supply
• Complete on-line implementation with editors

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WP03 Modelling

• User/scenario management
• User authentication by name and password
  (monitored )
• User can see and copy ALL scenarios, edit/delete
  only their own !
• TEST scenarios installed as EXAMPLES to
  demonstrate features implemented
• On-line manual pages

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WP03 Modelling

• Model structure
• Topology (network) of NODES, connected by
  REACHES
• NODES represent functional OBJECTS in the basin
• Sub-catchments, well(s) fields, springs
• Reservoirs, structures
• Water demand cities, irrigation districts,
  industries, environmental uses (wetlands, minimum
  flow)

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WP03 Modelling

• Model structure
• Topology (network) of NODES, connected by
  REACHES
• Represent natural and man-made channels, canals,
  pipelines that transfer (route) water between
  NODES.
• Networks include
• Diversions (splitting the flow)
• Confluences (merging flow)

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Water demand NODES
Consumptive use
Costs of supply Benefits of use

• Water demand and use
• domestic,
• agricultural,
• industrial

Intake quality constraint, conveyance loss
return flow (pollution)
recycling
losses
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WP03 Modelling

• DEMAND NODE is defined by
• Its type (domestic, industrial, agricultural)
• Its connectivity (upstream, downstream, aquifer)
• Its water demand (time series)
• Conveiance losses (evaporation, seepage)
• Consumptive use fraction, resulting in
• return flow, and its losses
• Quality changes (pollution)
• Costs of supply Benefits of use

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WP03 Modelling

• WRM EXTENSIONS
• Full groundwater coupling, single or multi-cell
  aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling,
  in/exfiltration for reaches
• Quality integration (return flow)
• Economic analysis
• Water efficiency added value/unit water
• Cost-benefit analysis, requires, per node
• Investment, lifetime, OMR, discount rate

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WP03 Modelling

• Full groundwater coupling, single or multi-cell
  aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling,
  in/exfiltration for reaches
• Every node is optionally connected to an AQUIFER
  OBJECT
• Extracting water from it (wells, infiltration
  (lateral inflow, baseflow contribution) into
  reaches, depending on relative levels
• Returning water to it seepage losses, explicit
  recharge

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WP5-9 Modelling

• REMEMBER
• Model applications are THE central part of the
  case studies !!!
• All data compilation in view of model input data
  requirements

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WP03 Model steps

• Define the domain or system boundaries (river
  basin including any transfers !)
• Describe all important OBJECTS
• Inputs sub-catchments, wells, springs,
  transfers, desalination, Aquifers
• Demands cities, tourist resorts, industries,
  agriculture (irrigated)
• Structures reservoirs
• Define NETWORK link nodes through reaches
  (connectivity)

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WP03 Model steps

• Compile and edit the DATA for the NODES and
  REACHES
• Time series of flow, pumping, water demand,
  diversion, reservoir release as rules or explicit
  time series,
• Loss coefficients
• Consumptive use fractions,
• Costs (investment, OMR, and benefits per units
  water supplied/used
• Edit one or more scenarios, document
• RUN the model, evaluate runs.

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WP03 OPTMIZATION steps

• Define
• CRITERIA, sort into
• OBJECTIVES (min/max) and
• CONSTRAINTS (inequalities),
• set numerical values, symbolic targets
• RUN the optimization model on-line (that may
  take a while )
• ANALYZE results as input to WP 14, 15

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WP03 OPTMIZATION steps

• OPTIMIZATION generates sets of feasible
  alternatives, each optimal in some (well defined)
  sense
• Discrete multi-criteria methodology SELECTS a
  single preferred solution from that set by
  defining preferences and trade-offs
  (multi-criteria) interactively
• Users explore the decision space to learn what
  can be obtained, and for what price (the
  trade-offs) and how to approach their UTOPIA
  solutions.