Market Sizing and Forecast

1
Key Challenges in Market Forecast in current
scenario
The market opportunities in current days are
becoming widely diversified and highly volatile
as organizations globally are consistently
engaged in business expansion and risk
mitigation. Thus, predicting and forecasting the
business potential becomes an ever-complex task.
There could be various reasons for this
unpredictability, such as supply chain delays,
de-risking China, changing government policies,
and other macro-micro factors. For market
analysts, these are creating several challenges
for practical forecast a few are listed
below. Industry shifting trends to influence
product innovation and market development The
business opportunities are widely expanding as
companies evolve with several industry-shifting
trends such as sustainability, advanced
technology integration, and digitalization. When
we are talking about sustainability, it follows
multiple treads. A development within one
industry leads to an opportunity or disruption
in another sector. For instance, the automotive
industry is responding to sustainability by
adopting electrification. This creates a wide
range of opportunities for different industries
and developments, such as spur of carbon
nanomaterials from the chemical sector for
thermal resistance or optimum designs forming
from the mechanical side for battery housing and
placements. Further, when it comes to advanced
technologies, the requirement of high-performing
5G chipsets creates an opportunity for adhesive
manufacturers to ensure the core functionality
within the highly dense and compact devices,
creating a heat dissipation issue while ramping
up the performance. The underlying statement
the companies these days are not limited to
business management and growth within the
traditional customer segment but instead expand
beyond the obvious end-use. Geopolitical
scenarios to develop unpredictable scenarios As
a part of the geopolitical scenario, companies
nowadays are trying to de-risk China for their
overdependency on raw materials from the country
and seeking a balanced equation while looking for
collaboration opportunities from other developing
countries of Southeast Asia and LATAM. There
could be various reasons for it the most
apparent one is Covid-19, followed by other key
ones like political risks rising protectionism,
trade war, social values, alignment of ESG
strategies, diversity,
2
equality, and other technology disruptions 3D
printing, digital manufacturing, vicinity-based
collaborations. Further, the war in Ukraine led
to the food and fuel crisis. For instance, the
key exports from Ukraine and Russia include
petroleum gases, crude petroleum, and other
hydrocarbons, widely exacerbating Europes energy
crisis. Restrictions on exports bring
inflationary and supply chain modification
pressures. These all factors redirect markets
across multi- dimensions, and eventually, the
market projections become over complex. Aggressiv
e regulatory policies to causing sudden market
shifts In due course of sustainability goals,
several governments are bringing aggressive
regulatory policies that hugely impact shifting
the market volumes from one business segment to
another. The US state of Connecticut approved
Bill No. 926, which forbids the "sale of
consumer packaging that contains per- and
polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)". On June 9,
2021. Governor Ted Lamont is anticipated to
quickly sign the legislation into law after the
state senate passes it unanimously. No
manufacturer, supplier, or distributor will be
permitted to offer PFAS-containing packaging for
sale in the state after January 2024. Connecticut
will join the other US states that have banned
PFAS in food packaging as the fifth.
This blanket ban is shifting the entire market
volume to sustainable segments. Further, the
Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate
Change, Government of India notified the Plastic
Waste Management Amendment Rules, 2021. From 1st
July 2022, India banned the manufacture, import,
stocking, distribution, sale, and use of
identified single-use plastic items, which have
low utility and high littering potential, across
the country. Rapidly shifting consumer awareness
leads to undefined market changes. Consumer
awareness and demand are triggered by multiple
parameters sustainability, covid-19, and
application-centric features. During Covid-19,
we saw shifts in consumer spending towards highly
essential and value-based products while
lowering spending on luxury and lifestyle
products. This has also defined new businesses
based on localization trends. Further, some
consumer groups tend to pay an extra dime for
sustainable and healthy products. Hence, to
ensure accurate forecasts,
3
businesses need preprocessing techniques such as
surveys, message testing, and brand value
monitoring to ensure their market share
targets. Data overdependency and lack of
visionary approach At times, heavy reliance on
the tools and mathematical models that drive the
forecast dont consider the current market
dynamics causing unrealistic forecasts for
various market segments. For instance, over time,
the processes and production get optimized
because of technology scalability and practical
end-use adoption levels, leading to some pricing
and market penetration trends. Further, the key
significant events such as the war situation,
blanket bans on some products, economic slowdown,
etc., should not count the historical growth
trends. Thus, the visionary approach comes into
the picture to bring the closely associated
factors and their impacts on the market to be
the part of the forecast model.